A policy critique of Stansted Airport's expansion to 25 million passengers per annum (MPPA)

In this paper we undertake a preliminary assessment of the regional planning and development implications of BAA Stansted Airport’s planning permission to grow to 25 million passengers per annum (mppa) by 2010. Our concern is not simply to consider the overall growth of the airport on the airport site itself but the nature and type of growth both on- and off-site. In this document we focus on the submitted planning permission documents and test them. The methodology we employed was to draw on published and unpublished numerical estimates of the airport’s growth – particularly including estimates produced by the airport owner, BAA, and their economic and planning consultants DTZ Pieda - and critically, and systematically analyse their figures. We adopted this approach because unless the figures which were employed in the initial calculations were correct then all of the subsequent projections which flow from them - and the polices which could then be based on them – could be flawed. The analysis is divided into two parts – firstly, are the growth forecasts correct?; and secondly, what do these forecasts actually mean in developmental terms? In effect, what we have done is to produce a critique of the existing body of evidence by questioning underpinning assumptions and then draw some preliminary conclusions for the region based on this analysis. A major focus of this report has been analyse the figures involved in the planning application to expand Stansted to 25mppa. Ironically, one of our key findings, that the local impact of Stansted’s proposed expansion in employment terms might well be less than was originally thought, might make it easier to gain the acceptance of the relevant local authorities involved to allow the development to take place. Our main overall findings are that the BAA projections over-estimate the local employment impact of the airport’s proposed growth and under-estimate its potential regional ‘transportation’ employment effect. These two findings are, of course, related to each other in important ways, and we also feel that they have potentially significant medium and long-term economic, competitiveness and planning policy implications for the East of England region

Assimilation of RAPID array observations into an ocean model

Experiments assimilating the RAPID dataset of deep temperature and salinity profiles at 26.5°N on the western and eastern Atlantic boundaries into a 1° global NEMO ocean model have been performed. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is then assessed against the transports calculated directly from observations. The best initialization found for this short period was obtained by assimilating the EN3 upper-ocean hydrography database prior to 2004, after which different methods of assimilating 5-day average RAPID profiles at the western boundary were tested. The model MOC is strengthened by ∼ 2 Sv giving closer agreement with the RAPID array transports, when the western boundary profiles are assimilated only below 900 m (the approximate depth of the Florida Straits, which are not well resolved) and when the T,S observations are spread meridionally from 10 to 35°N along the deep western boundary. The use of boundary-focused covariances has the largest impact on the assimilation results, otherwise using more conventional Gaussian covariances has a very local impact on the MOC at 26°N with strong adverse impacts on the MOC stream function at higher and lower latitudes. Even using boundary-focused covariances only enables the MOC to be strengthened for ∼ 2 years, after which the increased transport of warm waters leads to a negative feedback on water formation in the subpolar gyre which then reduces the MOC. This negative feedback can be mitigated if EN3 hydrography data continue to be assimilated along with the RAPID array boundary data. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown in the right of Canada.

The impact of buy to let residential investment on local housing markets: evidence from Glasgow, Scotland

The advent of the 'buy to let' (BTL) phenomenon in the UK. apart from producing a new wave of individualized rental market investment, has been widely judged to be a speculative and destabilizing force in the housing market. This paper provides a detailed empirical investigation of new residential investment in one city (Glasgow) where BTL has made a relatively large impact. In seeking to overcome data problems, the study employed qualitative (expert interviews and a landlord survey) and quantitative methods (census, the Register of Sasines, standardized house price information and modelling thereof) in order to assess the nature and scale of BTL, the motivations of investors and its impact on the private housing market. The evidence suggests that white Glasgow is in many re.spects different to rental markets elsewhere in the UK and although the investment has thus far largely occurred in a benign environment, the context for future investment, on balance, looks sustainable (i.e.favourable changes to pension planning law and the maturing market for BTL}. Long-term market impact is an empirical question that depends on the specific interactions of market niches or segments (i.e. the first-time buyer market for apartments} with potential buy to let investment. Our conclusion, to borrow a Scottish legal term, is that BTL induced volatility is 'not proven'.

Mixed use urban regeneration at Brindleyplace, Birmingham and Gunwharf Quays, Portsmouth: an assessment of the impact on local and national economies

This independent research was commissioned by the British Property Federation. The report examines the local and national economic impact of two major, mixed use schemes in terms of tax revenue, household income, business rates and council tax and jobs creation. A regeneration balance sheet for each scheme is presented in the context of government policy and other related research. The report provides a comprehensive review of government policy and the role of retail and other land uses in regeneration. Highlighting the importance of national and local multiplier effects with detailed statistics drawn from a variety of sources, this fully illustrated colour research report builds up a detailed picture of economic impact of the mixed use regeneration schemes in the local economies of Birmingham and Portsmouth. The report will be of interest to property people, planners and all involved in regeneration and local economies.

What next for children's services? Can policy at a local or national level have any significant impact on the outcomes for children and their families?

In England at both strategic and operational levels, policy-makers in the public sector have undertaken considerable work on implementing the findings of the Every Child Matters report and subsequently through the Children's Act 2004. Legislation has resulted in many local authorities seeking to implement more holistic approaches to the delivery of children's services. At a strategic level this is demonstrated by the creation of integrated directorate structures providing for a range of services, from education to children's social care. Such services were generally under the management of the Director of Children's Services, holding statutory responsibilities for the delivery of services formally divided into the three sectors of education, health and social services. At a national level, more fundamental policy developments have sought to establish a framework through which policy-makers can address the underlying causes of deprivation, vulnerability and inequality. The Child Poverty Act, 2010, which gained Royal Assent in 2010, provides for a clear intention to reduce the number of children in poverty, acknowledging that ‘the best way to eradicate child poverty is to address the causes of poverty, rather than only treat the symptoms’. However, whilst the policy objectives of both pieces of legislation hold positive aspirations for children and young people, a change of policy direction through a change of government in May 2010 seems to be in direct contrast to the intended focus of these aims. This paper explores the impact of new government policy on the future direction of children's services both at the national and local levels. At the national level, we question the ability of the government to deliver the aspirations of the Child Poverty Act, 2010, given the broad range of influences and factors that can determine the circumstances in which a child may experience poverty. We argue that poverty is not simply an issue of the pressure of financial deprivation, but that economic recession and cuts in government spending will further increase the number of children living in poverty.

An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former’s climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission ‘hotspots’: areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently observed, including the flushing storm sources of Chryse and Utopia, and southern midlatitude areas from which larger storms tend to initiate, such as Hellas and Solis Planum. The seasonal cycle of emission, which includes a double-peaked structure in northern autumn and winter, also appears realistic. Significant increases to lifting rates are produced for any sensible choices of parameters controlling the sub-grid distributions used, but results are sensitive to the smallest scale of variability considered, which high-resolution modelling suggests should be O(1 km) or less. Use of such models in future will permit the use of a diagnosed (rather than prescribed) variable gustiness intensity, which should further enhance dust lifting in the southern hemisphere in particular.

Palaeoenvironmental evidence for the impact of the crusades on the local and regional environment of medieval (13th–16th century) northern Latvia, eastern Baltic

This paper evaluates the impact of the crusades on the landscape and environment of northern Latvia between the 13th–16th centuries (medieval Livonia). The crusades replaced tribal societies in the eastern Baltic with a religious state (Ordenstaat) run by the military orders and their allies, accompanied by significant social, cultural and economic developments. These changes have previously received little consideration in palaeoenvironmental studies of past land use in the eastern Baltic region, but are fundamental to understanding the development and expansion of a European Christian identity. Sediment cores from Lake Trikāta, located adjacent to a medieval castle and settlement, were studied using pollen, macrofossils, loss-on-ignition and magnetic susceptibility. Our results show that despite continuous agricultural land use from 500 BC, the local landscape was still densely wooded until the start of the crusades in AD 1198 when a diversified pattern of pasture, meadow and arable land use was established. Colonisation followed the crusades, although in Livonia this occurred on a much smaller scale than in the rest of the Ordenstaat; Trikāta is atypical showing significant impact following the crusades with many other palaeoenvironmental studies only revealing more limited impact from the 14th century and later. Subsequent wars and changes in political control in the post-medieval period had little apparent effect on agricultural land use.

Examining the interaction of growing crops with local climate using a coupled crop-climate model

This paper examines to what extent crops and their environment should be viewed as a coupled system. Crop impact assessments currently use climate model output offline to drive process-based crop models. However, in regions where local climate is sensitive to land surface conditions more consistent assessments may be produced with the crop model embedded within the land surface scheme of the climate model. Using a recently developed coupled crop–climate model, the sensitivity of local climate, in particular climate variability, to climatically forced variations in crop growth throughout the tropics is examined by comparing climates simulated with dynamic and prescribed seasonal growth of croplands. Interannual variations in land surface properties associated with variations in crop growth and development were found to have significant impacts on near-surface fluxes and climate; for example, growing season temperature variability was increased by up to 40% by the inclusion of dynamic crops. The impact was greatest in dry years where the response of crop growth to soil moisture deficits enhanced the associated warming via a reduction in evaporation. Parts of the Sahel, India, Brazil, and southern Africa were identified where local climate variability is sensitive to variations in crop growth, and where crop yield is sensitive to variations in surface temperature. Therefore, offline seasonal forecasting methodologies in these regions may underestimate crop yield variability. The inclusion of dynamic crops also altered the mean climate of the humid tropics, highlighting the importance of including dynamical vegetation within climate models.

Spontaneous generation and impact of inertia-gravity waves in a stratified, two-layer shear flow

Inertia-gravity waves exist ubiquitously throughout the stratified parts of the atmosphere and ocean. They are generated by local velocity shears, interactions with topography, and as geostrophic (or spontaneous) adjustment radiation. Relatively little is known about the details of their interaction with the large-scale flow, however. We report on a joint model/laboratory study of a flow in which inertia-gravity waves are generated as spontaneous adjustment radiation by an evolving large-scale mode. We show that their subsequent impact upon the large-scale dynamics is generally small. However, near a potential transition from one large-scale mode to another, in a flow which is simultaneously baroclinically-unstable to more than one mode, the inertia-gravity waves may strongly influence the selection of the mode which actually occurs.

The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM

On the time scale of a century, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is sensitive to the global surface salinity distribution. The advection of salinity toward the deep convection sites of the North Atlantic is one of the driving mechanisms for the THC. There is both a northward and a southward contributions. The northward salinity advection (Nsa) is related to the evaporation in the subtropics, and contributes to increased salinity in the convection sites. The southward salinity advection (Ssa) is related to the Arctic freshwater forcing and tends on the contrary to diminish salinity in the convection sites. The THC changes results from a delicate balance between these opposing mechanisms. In this study we evaluate these two effects using the IPSL-CM4 ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice coupled model (used for IPCC AR4). Perturbation experiments have been integrated for 100 years under modern insolation and trace gases. River runoff and evaporation minus precipitation are successively set to zero for the ocean during the coupling procedure. This allows the effect of processes Nsa and Ssa to be estimated with their specific time scales. It is shown that the convection sites in the North Atlantic exhibit various sensitivities to these processes. The Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant sensitivity to local forcing and Ssa with a typical time scale of 10 years, whereas the Irminger Sea is mostly sensitive to Nsa with a 15 year time scale. The GIN Seas respond to both effects with a time scale of 10 years for Ssa and 20 years for Nsa. It is concluded that, in the IPSL-CM4, the global freshwater forcing damps the THC on centennial time scales.

Biogenic nitric oxide emissions from soils: impact on NOx and ozone over West Africa during AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) - observational study

Chemical and meteorological parameters measured on board the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146 Atmospheric Research Aircraft during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign are presented to show the impact of NOx emissions from recently wetted soils in West Africa. NO emissions from soils have been previously observed in many geographical areas with different types of soil/vegetation cover during small scale studies and have been inferred at large scales from satellite measurements of NOx. This study is the first dedicated to showing the emissions of NOx at an intermediate scale between local surface sites and continental satellite measurements. The measurements reveal pronounced mesoscale variations in NOx concentrations closely linked to spatial patterns of antecedent rainfall. Fluxes required to maintain the NOx concentrations observed by the BAe-146 in a number of cases studies and for a range of assumed OH concentrations (1×106 to 1×107 molecules cm−3) are calculated to be in the range 8.4 to 36.1 ng N m−2 s−1. These values are comparable to the range of fluxes from 0.5 to 28 ng N m−2 s−1 reported from small scale field studies in a variety of non-nutrient rich tropical and sub-tropical locations reported in the review of Davidson and Kingerlee (1997). The fluxes calculated in the present study have been scaled up to cover the area of the Sahel bounded by 10 to 20 N and 10 E to 20 W giving an estimated emission of 0.03 to 0.30 Tg N from this area for July and August 2006. The observed chemical data also suggest that the NOx emitted from soils is taking part in ozone formation as ozone concentrations exhibit similar fine scale structure to the NOx, with enhancements over the wet soils. Such variability can not be explained on the basis of transport from other areas. Delon et al. (2008) is a companion paper to this one which models the impact of soil NOx emissions on the NOx and ozone concentration over West Africa during AMMA. It employs an artificial neural network to define the emissions of NOx from soils, integrated into a coupled chemistry-dynamics model. The results are compared to the observed data presented in this paper. Here we compare fluxes deduced from the observed data with the model-derived values from Delon et al. (2008).