The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values.

An analytical method for capacity dimensioning of WCDMA with high speed wireless link

Capacity dimensioning is one of the key problems in wireless network planning. Analytical and simulation methods are usually used to pursue the accurate capacity dimensioning of wireless network. In this paper, an analytical capacity dimensioning method for WCDMA with high speed wireless link is proposed based on the analysis on relations among system performance and high speed wireless transmission technologies, such as H-ARQ, AMC and fast scheduling. It evaluates system capacity in closed-form expressions from link level and system level. Numerical results show that the proposed method can calculate link level and system level capacity for WCDMA system with HSDPA and HSUPA.

A general-method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data

Recent interest in the validation of general circulation models (GCMs) has been devoted to objective methods. A small number of authors have used the direct synoptic identification of phenomena together with a statistical analysis to perform the objective comparison between various datasets. This paper describes a general method for performing the synoptic identification of phenomena that can be used for an objective analysis of atmospheric, or oceanographic, datasets obtained from numerical models and remote sensing. Methods usually associated with image processing have been used to segment the scene and to identify suitable feature points to represent the phenomena of interest. This is performed for each time level. A technique from dynamic scene analysis is then used to link the feature points to form trajectories. The method is fully automatic and should be applicable to a wide range of geophysical fields. An example will be shown of results obtained from this method using data obtained from a run of the Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Project GCM.

Technical note: A proposed method to determine the extent of degradation of a feed in the rumen from the degradation profile obtained with the in vitro gas production technique using feces as the inoculum

A method is proposed to determine the extent of degradation in the rumen involving a two-stage mathematical modeling process. In the first stage, a statistical model shifts (or maps) the gas accumulation profile obtained using a fecal inoculum to a ruminal gas profile. Then, a kinetic model determines the extent of degradation in the rumen from the shifted profile. The kinetic model is presented as a generalized mathematical function, allowing any one of a number of alternative equation forms to be selected. This method might allow the gas production technique to become an approach for determining extent of degradation in the rumen, decreasing the need for surgically modified animals while still maintaining the link with the animal. Further research is needed before the proposed methodology can be used as a standard method across a range of feeds.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

A novel method for the transport and analysis of genetic material from polyps and zooxanthellae of scleractinian corals

We have developed a new simple method for transport, storage, and analysis of genetic material from the corals Agaricia agaricites, Dendrogyra cylindrica, Eusmilia ancora, Meandrina meandrites, Montastrea annularis, Porites astreoides, Porites furcata, Porites porites, and Siderastrea siderea at room temperature. All species yielded sufficient DNA from a single FTA(R) card (19 mug-43 ng) for subsequent PCR amplification of both coral and zooxanthellar DNA. The D1 and D2 variable region of the large Subunit rRNA gene (LSUrDNA) was amplified from the DNA of P. furcata and S. siderea by PCR. Electrophoresis yielded two major DNA bands: an 800-base pair (bp) DNA, which represented the coral ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene, and a 600-bp DNA, which represented the zooxanthellar srRNA gene. Extraction of DNA from the bands yielded between 290 mug total DNA (S. siderea coral DNA) and 9 mug total DNA (P. furcata zooxanthellar DNA). The ability to transport and store genetic material from scleractinian corals without resort to laboratory facilities in the field allows for the molecular Study of a far wider range and variety of coral sites than have been studied to date. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Synapsing variable length crossover: An algorithm for crossing and comparing variable length genomes

The Synapsing Variable Length Crossover (SVLC) algorithm provides a biologically inspired method for performing meaningful crossover between variable length genomes. In addition to providing a rationale for variable length crossover it also provides a genotypic similarity metric for variable length genomes enabling standard niche formation techniques to be used with variable length genomes. Unlike other variable length crossover techniques which consider genomes to be rigid inflexible arrays and where some or all of the crossover points are randomly selected, the SVLC algorithm considers genomes to be flexible and chooses non-random crossover points based on the common parental sequence similarity. The SVLC Algorithm recurrently "glues" or synapses homogenous genetic sub-sequences together. This is done in such a way that common parental sequences are automatically preserved in the offspring with only the genetic differences being exchanged or removed, independent of the length of such differences. In a variable length test problem the SVLC algorithm is shown to outperform current variable length crossover techniques. The SVLC algorithm is also shown to work in a more realistic robot neural network controller evolution application.

Synapsing variable-length crossover: Meaningful crossover for variable-length genomes

The synapsing variable-length crossover (SVLC algorithm provides a biologically inspired method for performing meaningful crossover between variable-length genomes. In addition to providing a rationale for variable-length crossover, it also provides a genotypic similarity metric for variable-length genomes, enabling standard niche formation techniques to be used with variable-length genomes. Unlike other variable-length crossover techniques which consider genomes to be rigid inflexible arrays and where some or all of the crossover points are randomly selected, the SVLC algorithm considers genomes to be flexible and chooses non-random crossover points based on the common parental sequence similarity. The SVLC algorithm recurrently "glues" or synapses homogenous genetic subsequences together. This is done in such a way that common parental sequences are automatically preserved in the offspring with only the genetic differences being exchanged or removed, independent of the length of such differences. In a variable-length test problem, the SVLC algorithm compares favorably with current variable-length crossover techniques. The variable-length approach is further advocated by demonstrating how a variable-length genetic algorithm (GA) can obtain a high fitness solution in fewer iterations than a traditional fixed-length GA in a two-dimensional vector approximation task.

Towards a method for the economic evaluation of environmental indicators in UK Integrated Arable Farming Systems

Integrated Arable Farming Systems (IAFS), which involve a reduction in the use of off-farm inputs, are attracting considerable research interest in the UK. The objectives of these systems experiments are to compare their financial performance with that from conventional or current farming practices. To date, this comparison has taken little account of any environmental benefits (or disbenefits) of the two systems. The objective of this paper is to review the assessment methodologies available for the analysis of environmental impacts. To illustrate the results of this exercise, the methodology and environmental indicators chosen are then applied to data from one of the LINK - Integrated Farming Systems experimental sites. Data from the Pathhead site in Southern Scotland are used to evaluate the use of invertebrates and nitrate loss as environmental indicators within IAFS. The results suggest that between 1992 and 1995 the biomass of earthworms fell by 28 kg per hectare on the integrated rotation and rose by 31 kg per hectare on the conventional system. This led to environmental costs ranging between £2.24 and £13.44 per hectare for the integrated system and gains of between £2.48 and £14.88 for the conventional system. In terms of nitrate, the integrated system had an estimated loss of £72.21 per hectare in comparison to £149.40 per hectare on the conventional system. Conclusions are drawn about the advantages and disadvantages of this type of analytical framework. Keywords: Farming systems; IAFS; Environmental valuation; Economics; Earthworms; Nitrates; Soil fauna

Detection of anthropogenic climate change using a fingerprint method

A fingerprint method for detecting anthropogenic climate change is applied to new simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) forced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols covering the years 1880 to 2050. In addition to the anthropogenic climate change signal, the space-time structure of the natural climate variability for near-surface temperatures is estimated from instrumental data over the last 134 years and two 1000 year simulations with CGCMs. The estimates are compared with paleoclimate data over 570 years. The space-time information on both the signal and the noise is used to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio of a detection variable obtained by applying an optimal filter (fingerprint) to the observed data. The inclusion of aerosols slows the predicted future warming. The probability that the observed increase in near-surface temperatures in recent decades is of natural origin is estimated to be less than 5%. However, this number is dependent on the estimated natural variability level, which is still subject to some uncertainty.

Sustainable urban metabolism as a link between bio-physical sciences and urban planning: the BRIDGE project

Urban metabolism considers a city as a system with flows of energy and material between it and the environment. Recent advances in bio-physical sciences provide methods and models to estimate local scale energy, water, carbon and pollutant fluxes. However, good communication is required to provide this new knowledge and its implications to endusers (such as urban planners, architects and engineers). The FP7 project BRIDGE (sustainaBle uRban plannIng Decision support accountinG for urban mEtabolism) aimed to address this gap by illustrating the advantages of considering these issues in urban planning. The BRIDGE Decision Support System (DSS) aids the evaluation of the sustainability of urban planning interventions. The Multi Criteria Analysis approach adopted provides a method to cope with the complexity of urban metabolism. In consultation with targeted end-users, objectives were defined in relation to the interactions between the environmental elements (fluxes of energy, water, carbon and pollutants) and socioeconomic components (investment costs, housing, employment, etc.) of urban sustainability. The tool was tested in five case study cities: Helsinki, Athens, London, Florence and Gliwice; and sub-models were evaluated using flux data selected. This overview of the BRIDGE project covers the methods and tools used to measure and model the physical flows, the selected set of sustainability indicators, the methodological framework for evaluating urban planning alternatives and the resulting DSS prototype.

Towards pain-free diagnosis of skin diseases through multiplexed microneedles: biomarker extraction and detection using a highly sensitive blotting method

Immunodiagnostic microneedles provide a novel way to extract protein biomarkers from the skin in a minimally invasive manner for analysis in vitro. The technology could overcome challenges in biomarker analysis specifically in solid tissue, which currently often involves invasive biopsies. This study describes the development of a multiplex immunodiagnostic device incorporating mechanisms to detect multiple antigens simultaneously, as well as internal assay controls for result validation. A novel detection method is also proposed. It enables signal detection specifically at microneedle tips and therefore may aid the construction of depth profiles of skin biomarkers. The detection method can be coupled with computerised densitometry for signal quantitation. The antigen specificity, sensitivity and functional stability of the device were assessed against a number of model biomarkers. Detection and analysis of endogenous antigens (interleukins 1α and 6) from the skin using the device was demonstrated. The results were verified using conventional enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The detection limit of the microneedle device, at ≤10 pg/mL, was at least comparable to conventional plate-based solid-phase enzyme immunoassays.