Achieving satisfactory contractual terms for the engineer's role

An international survey of clients, consultants and contractors produced wide-ranging data on the views of users of the FIDIC form of contract. The purpose of the survey was to elicit views on a range of issues, prior to revising the model form, to ensure that the contract drafters produce a form that is satisfactory for its users. Those questions that focus upon the role of the engineer have been subjected to detailed statistical analysis. The analysis shows that, contrary to popular belief, the views of contract users from common law jurisdictions do not differ from those in civil code jurisdictions. The engineer’s role is not generally perceived as neutral in the contractual relationships between clients and contractors. Contractors would prefer someone other than the engineer to be the first-line settler of disputes in contracts.

Practicing sustainability in PFI project management

This paper investigates the relationship of the project management in Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and sustainability. A live PFI project is selected as a case study, where contract review and monitoring on project management are carried out to evaluate the sustainability of project management. The PFI procurement shows great advantages in increased contractual responsibilities of the contractor in sustainable construction, and also in practicing sustainability in project management. Six main sustainable attributes of the project management are selected to evaluate the sustainability of project management in the PFI project. The project management process in the case study is closely monitored in order to verify how the PFI project promotes sustainability in practice. The project management in the different stages of the PFI project, including tendering, design, construction and operation, contributes to the six sustainable attributes in different ways. The project management in PFI project paid more attention in sustainable development during its whole process. As the private sector is responsible to the whole life of the building project, the project manager has to consider the long-term benefits during the management process. The government should take advantages of PFI project management in practicing sustainability therefore to promote sustainable development of the national infrastructure services.

Genetic heterogeneity in erythropoietic protoporphyria: a study of the enzymatic defect in nine affected families

Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is associated with a deficiency of protohaem ferrolyase. We have used a novel assay for this enzyme based on its ability to utilize zinc as a substrate to investigate the inheritance of EPP in nine affected families. Zinc chelatase activity was markedly reduced in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 14 EPP patients (mean, 3.3 nmol Zn protohaem/h/mg protein; range, 0.3-8.0) when compared with 41 controls (16.8 +/- 3.6) p less than 0.01. In three families with parent-to-child transmission of disease, the asymptomatic parent had an enzymatic activity within the normal range. In three pedigrees where the parents were asymptomatic, enzymatic activities were below the 95% confidence limits in both. Zinc chelatase activity was below the mean control value in 17 of the 18 parents in nine affected pedigrees, and six of seven asymptomatic offspring of patients with protoporphyria. The findings suggest that EPP is not transmitted as a simple dominant trait and that inheritance of more than one gene may be required for disease expression.

Digital visualisation in Classics teaching and beyond

For the last few years, I have been working on an extensive digital model of ancient Rome as it appeared in the early 4th Century AD. This sort of visualisation lends itself to many applications in diverse fields: I am currently using it for research work into illumination and sightlines in the ancient city, have licensed it for broadcast in TV documentaries and publication in magazines, and am working with a computer games studio to turn it into an online game where players will be able to walk round the streets and buildings of the entire city (when not engaged in trading with or assassinating one another). Later this year I will be making a free online course, or MOOC, about the architecture of ancient Rome, which will largely be illustrated by this model.

Valuation and arbitrage

The use of discounted cash flow (DCF) methods in investment valuation and appraisal is argued by many academics as being rational and more rigorous than the traditional capitalisation model. However those advocates of DCF should be cautious in their claims for rationality. The various DCF models all rely upon an all-encompassing equated yield (IRR) within the calculation. This paper will argue that this is a simplification of the risk perception which the investor places on the income profile from property. In determining the long term capital value of a property an 'average' DCF method will produce the 'correct' price, however, the individual short term values of each cash-flow may differ significantly. In the UK property market today, where we are facing a period in which prices are not expected to rise generally at the same rate or with such persistence as hitherto, investors and tenants are increasingly concerned with the down side implications of rental growth and investors may indeed be interested in trading property over a shorter investment horizon than they had originally planned. The purpose of this paper is therefore to bring to the analysis a rigorous framework which can be used to analyse the constituent cash flows within the freehold valuation. We show that the arbitrage analysis lends itself to segregating the capital value of the cash flows in a way which is more appropriate for financial investors

The information content of REIT credit rating actions and transparency

We examine the short-run and long-run price reaction of equity REIT shares following credit rating actions, testing the transparency of the REIT structure. Generally, the economic effect on the stock price is subdued for both upgrades and downgrades compared to prior literature examining the broader U.S. equity market. An examination of trading volume revealed a significant increase in trading in reaction to downgrade credit rating changes, with a more subdued response to upgrades. The findings support the notion that REITs are more publicly forthcoming about the expectation of positive news in comparison to negative news.

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for China at 0 and 6000 years

Biomization provides an objective and robust method of assigning pollen spectra to biomes so that pollen data can be mapped and compared directly with the output of biomgeographic models. We have tested the applicability of this procedure, originally developed for Europe, to assign modern surface samples from China to biomes. The procedure successfully delineated the major vegetation types of China. When the same procedure was applied to fossil pollen samples for 6000 years ago, the reconstructions showed systematic differences from present, consistent with previous interpretations of vegetation changes since the mid-Holocene. In eastern China, the forest zones were systematically shifted northwards, such that cool mixed forests displaced taiga in northeastern China, while broad-leaved evergreen forest extended c. 300 km and temperate deciduous forestc. 500–600 km beyond their present northern limits. In northwestern China, the area of desert and steppe vegetation was reduced compared to present. On the Tibetan Plateau, forest vegetation extended to higher elevations than today and the area of tundra was reduced. These shifts in biome distributions imply significant changes in climate since 6000 years ago that can be interpreted qualitatively as a response to orbital forcing and its secondary effects on the Asian monsoon.

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors.

Big data: a normal accident waiting to happen?

Widespread commercial use of the internet has significantly increased the volume and scope of data being collected by organisations. ‘Big data’ has emerged as a term to encapsulate both the technical and commercial aspects of this growing data collection activity. To date, much of the discussion of big data has centred upon its transformational potential for innovation and efficiency, yet there has been less reflection on its wider implications beyond commercial value creation. This paper builds upon normal accident theory (NAT) to analyse the broader ethical implications of big data. It argues that the strategies behind big data require organisational systems that leave them vulnerable to normal accidents, that is to say some form of accident or disaster that is both unanticipated and inevitable. Whilst NAT has previously focused on the consequences of physical accidents, this paper suggests a new form of system accident that we label data accidents. These have distinct, less tangible and more complex characteristics and raise significant questions over the role of individual privacy in a ‘data society’. The paper concludes by considering the ways in which the risks of such data accidents might be managed or mitigated.

It is premature to include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes

The recent G8 Gleneagles climate statement signed on 8 July 2005 specifically mentions a determination to lessen the impact of aviation on climate [Gleneagles, 2005. The Gleneagles communique: climate change, energy and sustainable development. http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/PostG8_Gleneagles_Communique.pdf]. In January 2005 the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) commenced operation as the largest multi-country, multi-sector ETS in the world, albeit currently limited only to CO2 emissions. At present the scheme makes no provision for aircraft emissions. However, the UK Government would like to see aircraft included in the ETS and plans to use its Presidencies of both the EU and G8 in 2005 to implement these schemes within the EU and perhaps internationally. Non-CO2 effects have been included in some policy-orientated studies of the impact of aviation but we argue that the inclusion of such effects in any such ETS scheme is premature; we specifically argue that use of the Radiative Forcing Index for comparing emissions from different sources is inappropriate and that there is currently no metric for such a purpose that is likely to enable their inclusion in the near future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A lightweight technique for assessing risks in requirements analysis

A simple and practical technique for assessing the risks, that is, the potential for error, and consequent loss, in software system development, acquired during a requirements engineering phase is described. The technique uses a goal-based requirements analysis as a framework to identify and rate a set of key issues in order to arrive at estimates of the feasibility and adequacy of the requirements. The technique is illustrated and how it has been applied to a real systems development project is shown. How problems in this project could have been identified earlier is shown, thereby avoiding costly additional work and unhappy users.