Re-examining the U.K.'s greatest tornado outbreak: forecasting the limited extent of tornadoes along a cold front

On 23 November 1981, a strong cold front swept across the U.K., producing tornadoes from the west to the east coasts. An extensive campaign to collect tornado reports by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) resulted in 104 reports, the largest U.K. outbreak. The front was simulated with a convection-permitting numerical model down to 200-m horizontal grid spacing to better understand its evolution and meteorological environment. The event was typical of tornadoes in the U.K., with convective available potential energy (CAPE) less than 150 J kg-1, 0-1-km wind shear of 10-20 m s-1, and a narrow cold-frontal rainband forming precipitation cores and gaps. A line of cyclonic absolute vorticity existed along the front, with maxima as large as 0.04 s-1. Some hook-shaped misovortices bore kinematic similarity to supercells. The narrow swath along which the line was tornadic was bounded on the equatorward side by weak vorticity along the line and on the poleward side by zero CAPE, enclosing a region where the environment was otherwise favorable for tornadogenesis. To determine if the 104 tornado reports were plausible, first possible duplicate reports were eliminated, resulting in as few as 58 tornadoes to as many as 90. Second, the number of possible parent misovortices that may have spawned tornadoes is estimated from model output. The number of plausible tornado reports in the 200-m grid-spacing domain was 22 and as many as 44, whereas the model simulation was used to estimate 30 possible parent misovortices within this domain. These results suggest that 90 reports was plausible.

Deforming glassy polystyrene: Influence of pressure, thermal history, and deformation mode on yielding and hardening

The toughness of a polymer glass is determined by the interplay of yielding, strain softening, and strain hardening. Molecular-dynamics simulations of a typical polymer glass, atactic polystyrene, under the influence of active deformation have been carried out to enlighten these processes. It is observed that the dominant interaction for the yield peak is of interchain nature and for the strain hardening of intrachain nature. A connection is made with the microscopic cage-to-cage motion. It is found that the deformation does not lead to complete erasure of the thermal history but that differences persist at large length scales. Also we find that the strain-hardening modulus increases with increasing external pressure. This new observation cannot be explained by current theories such as the one based on the entanglement picture and the inclusion of this effect will lead to an improvement in constitutive modeling.

Microscopic Mechanisms of Strain Hardening in Glassy Polymers

The mechanisms underlying the increase in stress for large mechanical strains of a polymer glass, quantified by the strain-hardening modulus, are still poorly understood. In the present paper we aim to elucidate this matter and present new mechanisms. Molecular-dynamics simulations of two polymers with very different strain-hardening moduli (polycarbonate and polystyrene) have been carried out. Nonaffine displacements occur because of steric hindrances and connectivity constraints. We argue that it is not necessary to introduce the concept of entanglements to understand strain hardening, but that hardening is rather coupled with the increase in the rate of nonaffine particle displacements. This rate increases faster for polycarbonate, which has the higher strain-hardening modulus. Also more nonaffine chain stretching is present for polycarbonate. It is shown that the inner distances of such a nonaffinely deformed chain can be well described by the inner distances of the worm-like chain, but with an effective stiffness length (equal to the Kuhn length for an infinite worm-like chain) that increases during deformation. It originates from the finite extensibility of the chain. In this way the increase in nonaffine particle displacement can be understood as resulting from an increase in the effective stiffness length of the perturbed chain during deformation, so that at larger strains a higher rate of plastic events in terms of nonaffine displacement is necessary, causing in turn the observed strain hardening in polymer glasses.

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 2. A survey of kinematic effects

We investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the kinematic effect on these open solar flux estimates of large-scale longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow, with particular emphasis on correcting estimates made using data from near-Earth satellites. We show that scatter, but no net bias, is introduced by the kinematic “bunching effect” on sampling and that this is true for both compression and rarefaction regions. The observed flux excesses, as a function of heliocentric distance, are shown to be consistent with open solar flux estimates from solar magnetograms made using the potential field source surface method and are well explained by the kinematic effect of solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. Applying this kinematic correction to the Omni-2 interplanetary data set shows that the open solar flux at solar minimum fell from an annual mean of 3.82 × 1016 Wb in 1987 to close to half that value (1.98 × 1016 Wb) in 2007, making the fall in the minimum value over the last two solar cycles considerably faster than the rise inferred from geomagnetic activity observations over four solar cycles in the first half of the 20th century.

Force constants and dipole moment derivatives of molecules from perturbed Hartree-Fock calculations II. Applications to limited basis set SCF-MO wavefunctions

The perturbed Hartree–Fock theory developed in the preceding paper is applied to LiH, BH, and HF, using limited basis‐set SCF–MO wavefunctions derived by previous workers. The calculated values for the force constant ke and the dipole‐moment derivative μ(1) are (experimental values in parentheses): LiH, ke  =  1.618(1.026)mdyn/Å,μ(1)  =  −18.77(−2.0±0.3)D/ÅBH,ke  =  5.199(3.032)mdyn/Å,μ(1)  =  −1.03(−)D/Å;HF,ke  =  12.90(9.651)mdyn/Å,μ(1)  =  −2.15(+1.50)D/Å. The values of the force on the proton were calculated exactly and according to the Hellmann–Feynman theorem in each case, and the discrepancies show that none of the wavefunctions used are close to the Hartree–Fock limit, so that the large errors in ke and μ(1) are not surprising. However no difficulties arose in the perturbed Hartree–Fock calculation, so that the application of the theory to more accurate wavefunctions appears quite feasible.

Hardening of concrete with a planned delayed ettringite formation

Delayed ettringite formation (DEF) in cementitious materials is widely considered as a harmful chemical reaction that causes extensive damages in hardened concrete. However, preventative measures and possible improvements in general are not extensively studied and require further attention. In this study was presented an investigation into a type of controlled DEF in places of finely dispersed crystallisation nuclei and provide evidence that the process may improve compressive strength of cementitious materials. The Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR) in hydrated concrete was achieved with the addition of fly ash and was further accelerated with the Duggan’s test. Achieved strengths and monitoring of microstructure development conducted with electronic microscopy revealed that growth of ettringite crystals in the nuclei led to harmless internal compressive stresses, expansion of hydrated concrete and overall strengthening of the concrete matrix.

Mode I fracture of sheet metal

The perceived wisdom about thin sheet fracture is that (i) the crack propagates under mixed mode I & III giving rise to a slant through-thickness fracture profile and (ii) the fracture toughness remains constant at low thickness and eventually decreases with increasing thickness. In the present study, fracture tests performed on thin DENT plates of various thicknesses made of stainless steel, mild steel, 6082-O and NS4 aluminium alloys, brass, bronze, lead, and zinc systematically exhibit (i) mode I “bath-tub”, i.e. “cup & cup”, fracture profiles with limited shear lips and significant localized necking (more than 50% thickness reduction), (ii) a fracture toughness that linearly increases with increasing thickness (in the range of 0.5–5 mm). The different contributions to the work expended during fracture of these materials are separated based on dimensional considerations. The paper emphasises the two parts of the work spent in the fracture process zone: the necking work and the “fracture” work. Experiments show that, as expected, the work of necking per unit area linearly increases with thickness. For a typical thickness of 1 mm, both fracture and necking contributions have the same order of magnitude in most of the metals investigated. A model is developed in order to independently evaluate the work of necking, which successfully predicts the experimental values. Furthermore, it enables the fracture energy to be derived from tests performed with only one specimen thickness. In a second modelling step, the work of fracture is computed using an enhanced void growth model valid in the quasi plane stress regime. The fracture energy varies linearly with the yield stress and void spacing and is a strong function of the hardening exponent and initial void volume fraction. The coupling of the two models allows the relative contributions of necking versus fracture to be quantified with respect to (i) the two length scales involved in this problem, i.e. the void spacing and the plate thickness, and (ii) the flow properties of the material. Each term can dominate depending on the properties of the material which explains the different behaviours reported in the literature about thin plate fracture toughness and its dependence with thickness.

Rheology and the breadmaking process

The applications of rheology to the main processes encountered during breadmaking (mixing, sheeting, fermentation and baking) are reviewed. The most commonly used rheological test methods and their relationships to product functionality are reviewed. It is shown that the most commonly used method for rheological testing of doughs, shear oscillation dynamic rheology, is generally used under deformation conditions inappropriate for breadmaking and shows little relationship with end-use performance. The frequency range used in conventional shear oscillation tests is limited to the plateau region, which is insensitive to changes in the HMW glutenin polymers thought to be responsible for variations in baking quality. The appropriate deformation conditions can be accessed either by long-time creep or relaxation measurements, or by large deformation extensional measurements at low strain rates and elevated temperatures. Molecular size and structure of the gluten polymers that make up the major structural components of wheat are related to their rheological properties via modern polymer rheology concepts. Interactions between polymer chain entanglements and branching are seen to be the key mechanisms determining the rheology of HMW polymers. Recent work confirms the observation that the dynamic shear plateau modulus is essentially independent of variations in MW of glutens amongst wheat varieties of varying baking performance and also that it is not the size of the soluble glutenin polymers, but the secondary structural and rheological properties of the insoluble polymer fraction that are mainly responsible for variations in baking performance. Extensional strain hardening has been shown to be a sensitive indicator of entanglements and long-chain branching in HMW polymers, and is well related to baking performance of bread doughs. The Considere failure criterion for instability in extension of polymers defines a region below which bubble walls become unstable, and predicts that when strain hardening falls below a value of around 1, bubble walls are no longer stable and coalesce rapidly, resulting in loss of gas retention and lower volume and texture. Strain hardening in doughs has been shown to reach this value at increasingly higher temperatures for better breadmaking varieties and is directly related to bubble stability and baking performance. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal kinematic control of an autonomous underwater vehicle

This note investigates the motion control of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The AUV is modeled as a nonholonomic system as any lateral motion of a conventional, slender AUV is quickly damped out. The problem is formulated as an optimal kinematic control problem on the Euclidean Group of Motions SE(3), where the cost function to be minimized is equal to the integral of a quadratic function of the velocity components. An application of the Maximum Principle to this optimal control problem yields the appropriate Hamiltonian and the corresponding vector fields give the necessary conditions for optimality. For a special case of the cost function, the necessary conditions for optimality can be characterized more easily and we proceed to investigate its solutions. Finally, it is shown that a particular set of optimal motions trace helical paths. Throughout this note we highlight a particular case where the quadratic cost function is weighted in such a way that it equates to the Lagrangian (kinetic energy) of the AUV. For this case, the regular extremal curves are constrained to equate to the AUV's components of momentum and the resulting vector fields are the d'Alembert-Lagrange equations in Hamiltonian form.

Highly accurate detection of ovarian cancer using CA125 but limited improvement with serum matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry profiling

Objectives: Our objective was to test the performance of CA125 in classifying serum samples from a cohort of malignant and benign ovarian cancers and age-matched healthy controls and to assess whether combining information from matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) time-of-flight profiling could improve diagnostic performance. Materials and Methods: Serum samples from women with ovarian neoplasms and healthy volunteers were subjected to CA125 assay and MALDI time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MS) profiling. Models were built from training data sets using discriminatory MALDI MS peaks in combination with CA125 values and tested their ability to classify blinded test samples. These were compared with models using CA125 threshold levels from 193 patients with ovarian cancer, 290 with benign neoplasm, and 2236 postmenopausal healthy controls. Results: Using a CA125 cutoff of 30 U/mL, an overall sensitivity of 94.8% (96.6% specificity) was obtained when comparing malignancies versus healthy postmenopausal controls, whereas a cutoff of 65 U/mL provided a sensitivity of 83.9% (99.6% specificity). High classification accuracies were obtained for early-stage cancers (93.5% sensitivity). Reasons for high accuracies include recruitment bias, restriction to postmenopausal women, and inclusion of only primary invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases. The combination of MS profiling information with CA125 did not significantly improve the specificity/accuracy compared with classifications on the basis of CA125 alone. Conclusions: We report unexpectedly good performance of serum CA125 using threshold classification in discriminating healthy controls and women with benign masses from those with invasive ovarian cancer. This highlights the dependence of diagnostic tests on the characteristics of the study population and the crucial need for authors to provide sufficient relevant details to allow comparison. Our study also shows that MS profiling information adds little to diagnostic accuracy. This finding is in contrast with other reports and shows the limitations of serum MS profiling for biomarker discovery and as a diagnostic tool

Methods for kinematic modeling of biological and robotic systems

The main objective is to develop methods that automatically generate kinematic models for the movements of biological and robotic systems. Two methods for the identification of the kinematics are presented. The first method requires the elimination of the displacement variables that cannot be measured while the second method attempts to estimate the changes in these variables. The methods were tested using a planar two-revolute-joint linkage. Results show that the model parameters obtained agree with the actual parameters to within 5%. Moreover, the methods were applied to model head and neck movements in the sagittal plane. The results indicate that these movements are well modeled by a two-revolute-joint system. A spatial three-revolute-joint model was also discussed and tested.