Production risk, pesticide use and GM crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, pesticide-producing Bacillus thuringensis (Bt) varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing pesticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology by estimating two 'flexible risk' production function models allowing technology to independently affect the mean and higher moments of output. The first is the popular Just-Pope model and the second is a more general 'damage control' flexible risk model. The models are applied to cross-sectional data on South African smallholders, some of whom used Bt varieties. The results show no evidence that a 'risk-reduction' claim can be made for Bt technology. Indeed, there is some evidence to support the notion that the technology increases output risk, implying that simple (expected) profit computations used in past evaluations may overstate true benefits.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

Bt cotton and production risk: Panel data evidence

The farm-level success of Bt-cotton in developing countries is well documented. However, the literature has only recently begun to recognise the importance of accounting for the effects of the technology on production risk, in addition to the mean effect estimated by previous studies. The risk effects of the technology are likely very important to smallholder farmers in the developing world due to their risk-aversion. We advance the emergent literature on Bt-cotton and production risk by using panel data methods to control for possible endogeneity of Bt-adoption. We estimate two models, the first a fixed-effects version of the Just and Pope model with additive individual and time effects, and the second a variation of the model in which inputs and variety choice are allowed to affect the variance of the time effect and its correlation with the idiosyncratic error. The models are applied to panel data on smallholder cotton production in India and South Africa. Our results suggest a risk-reducing effect of Bt-cotton in India, but an inconclusive picture in South Africa.

Production risk, pesticide use and GM crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, pesticide-producing Bacillus thuringensis (Bt) varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing pesticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology by estimating two 'flexible risk' production function models allowing technology to independently affect the mean and higher moments of output. The first is the popular Just-Pope model and the second is a more general 'damage control' flexible risk model. The models are applied to cross-sectional data on South African smallholders, some of whom used Bt varieties. The results show no evidence that a 'risk-reduction' claim can be made for Bt technology. Indeed, there is some evidence to support the notion that the technology increases output risk, implying that simple (expected) profit computations used in past evaluations may overstate true benefits.

Effect of sulphation on the oestrogen agonist activity of the phytoestrogens genistein and daidzein in MCF-7 human breast cancer cells

The phytoestrogens genistein, daidzein and the daidzein metabolite equol have been shown previously to possess oestrogen agonist activity. However, following consumption of soya diets, they are found in the body not only as aglycones but also as metabolites conjugated at their 4'- and 7-hydroxyl groups with sulphate. This paper describes the effects of monosulphation on the oestrogen agonist properties of these three phytoestrogens in MCF-7 human breast cancer cells in terms of their relative ability to compete with [H-3]oestradiol for binding to oestrogen receptor (ER), to induce a stably transfected oestrogen-responsive reporter gene (ERE-CAT) and to stimulate cell growth. In no case did sulphation abolish activity. The 4'-sulphadon of genistein reduced oestrogen agonist activity to a small extent in whole-cell assays but increased the relative binding affinity to ER. The 7-sulphation of genistein, and also of equol, reduced oestrogen agonist activity substantially in all assays. By contrast, the position of monosulphation of daidzein acted in an opposing manner on oestrogen agonist activity. Sulphation at the 4'-position of daidzein resulted in a modest reduction in oestrogen agonist activity but sulphation of daidzein at the 7-position resulted in an increase in oestrogen agonist activity. Molecular modelling and docking studies suggested that the inverse effects of sulphation could be explained by the binding of daidzein into the ligand-binding domain of the ER in the opposite orientation compared with genistein and equol. This is the first report of sulphation enhancing activity of an isoflavone and inverse effects of sulphation between individual phytoestrogens.

Comparative study of oestrogenic properties of eight phytoestrogens in MCF7 human breast cancer cells

Previous studies have compared the oestrogenic properties of phytoestrogens in a wide variety of disparate assays. Since not all phytoestrogens have been tested in each assay, this makes inter-study comparisons and ranking oestrogenic potency difficult. In this report, we have compared the oestrogen agonist and antagonist activity of eight phytoestrogens (genistein, daidzein, equol, miroestrol, deoxymiroestrol, 8-prenylnaringenin, coumestrol and resveratrol) in a range of assays all based within the same receptor and cellular context of the MCF7 human breast cancer cell line. The relative binding of each phytoestrogen to oestrogen receptor (ER) of MCF7 cytosol was calculated from the molar excess needed for 50 % inhibition of [H-3]oestradiol binding (IC50), and was in the order coumestrol (35x)/8-prenylnaringenin (45 x)/deoxymiroestrol (50 x) > miroestrol (260x) > genistein (1000x) > equol (4000x) > daidzein (not achieved: 40 % inhibition at 10(4)-fold molar excess) > resveratrol (not achieved: 10 % inhibition at 10(5)-fold molar excess). For cell-based assays, the rank order of potency (estimated in terms of the concentration needed to achieve a response equivalent to 50 % of that found with 17 beta-oestradiol (IC50)) remained very similar for all the assays whether measuring ligand ability to induce a stably transfected oestrogen-responsive ERE-CAT reporter gene, cell growth in terms of proliferation rate after 7 days or cell growth in terms of saturation density after 14 days. The IC50 values for these three assays in order were for 17 beta-oestradiol (1 x 10-(11) M, 1 x 10-(11) M, 2 x 10(-11) M), and in rank order of potency for the phytoestrogens, deoxymiroestrol (1 x 10(-10) M, 3 x 10(-11) M, 2 x 10(-11) M) > miroestrol (3 x 10(-10) M, 2 x 10(-11) M, 8 x 10(-11) M) > 8-prenylnaringenin (1 x 10(-9) M, 3 x 10(-10) M, 3 x 10(-10) M) > cournestrol (3 x 10(-8) M, 2 x 10(-8) M, 3 x 10(-8) M) > genistein (4 x 10(-8) M, 2 x 10(-8) M, 1 x 10(-8) M)/equol (1 x 10(-7) M, 3 x 10(-8) M, 2 x 10(-8) M) > daidzein (3 x 10(-7) M, 2 x 10(-7) M, 4 x 10(-8) M) > resveratrol (4 x 10(-6) M, not achieved, not achieved). Despite using the same receptor context of the MCF7 cells, this rank order differed from that determined from receptor binding. The most marked difference was for cournestrol and 8-prenylnaringenin which both displayed a relatively potent ability to displace [3H]oestradiol from cytosolic ER compared with their much lower activity in the cell-based assays. Albeit at varying concentrations, seven of the eight phytoestrogens (all except resveratrol) gave similar maximal responses to that given by 17 beta-oestradiol in cell-based assays which makes them full oestrogen agonists. We found no evidence for any oestrogen antagonist action of any of these phytoestrogens at concentrations of up to 10(-6) M on either reporter gene induction or on stimulation of cell growth. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oestrogenic activity of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (common metabolite of paraben esters) and methylparaben in human breast cancer cell lines

This paper addresses the question of whether p-hydroxybenzoic acid, the common metabolite of parabens, possesses oestrogenic activity in human breast cancer cell lines. The alkyl esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) are used widely as preservatives in consumer products to which the human population is exposed and have been shown previously to possess oestrogenic activity and to be present in human breast tumour tissue, which is an oestrogen-responsive tissue. Recent work has shown p-hydroxybenzoic acid to give an oestrogenic response in the rodent uterotrophic assay. We report here that p-hydroxybenzoic acid possesses oestrogenic activity in a panel of assays in human breast cancer cell lines. p-Hydroxybenzoic acid was able to displace [H-3]oestradiol from cytosolic oestrogen receptor of MCF7 human breast cancer cells by 54% at 5 x 10(6)-fold molar excess and by 99% at 10(7)-fold molar excess. It was able to increase the expression of a stably integrated oestrogen responsive reporter gene (ERE-CAT) at a concentration of 5 x 10(-4) M in MCF7 cells after 24 h and 7 days, which could be inhibited by the anti-oestrogen ICI 182 780 (Faslodex, fulvestrant). Proliferation of two human breast cancer cell lines (MCF7, ZR-75-1) could be increased by 10(-5) M p-hydroxybenzoic acid. Following on from previous studies showing a decrease in oestrogenic activity of parabens with shortening of the linear alkyl chain length, this study has compared the oestrogenic activity of p-hydroxybenzoic acid where the alkyl grouping is no longer present with methylparaben, which has the shortest alkyl group. Intrinsic oestrogenic activity of p-hydroxybenzoic acid was similar to that of methylparaben in terms of relative binding to the oestrogen receptor but its oestrogenic activity on gene expression and cell proliferation was lower than that of methylparaben. It can be concluded that removal of the ester group from parabens does not abrogate its oestrogenic activity and that p-hydroxybenzoic acid can give oestrogenic responses in human breast cancer cells. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.