Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

A Posteriori analysis of discontinuous Galerkin schemes for systems of hyperbolic conservation laws

In this work we construct reliable a posteriori estimates for some semi- (spatially) discrete discontinuous Galerkin schemes applied to nonlinear systems of hyperbolic conservation laws. We make use of appropriate reconstructions of the discrete solution together with the relative entropy stability framework, which leads to error control in the case of smooth solutions. The methodology we use is quite general and allows for a posteriori control of discontinuous Galerkin schemes with standard flux choices which appear in the approximation of conservation laws. In addition to the analysis, we conduct some numerical benchmarking to test the robustness of the resultant estimator.

Second order accurate upwind difference schemes for scalar conservation laws with source terms

A second order accurate, characteristic-based, finite difference scheme is developed for scalar conservation laws with source terms. The scheme is an extension of well-known second order scalar schemes for homogeneous conservation laws. Such schemes have proved immensely powerful when applied to homogeneous systems of conservation laws using flux-difference splitting. Many application areas, however, involve inhomogeneous systems of conservation laws with source terms, and the scheme presented here is applied to such systems in a subsequent paper.

Crocodile crimes: people versus wildlife and the politics of postcolonial conservation on Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe

This article is about the politics of conservation in postcolonial Southern Africa. It focuses on the process and consequences of redefining the Nile crocodile as an endangered species and explores the linked local and international, commercial and conservationist interests that allowed the animal to re-establish itself in state-protected waterways in colonial and postcolonial contexts. It investigates the effects of the animal's successful re-accommodation by examining conflicts between crocodiles and the fishing communities sharing space on Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. Fishermen's hostile representations of the animal emphasize competition for fish, harassment, fear, loss of assets and loss of life. Their fear of crocodiles is heightened by the animal's entanglement in local social life, through its association with witchcraft. The article emphasizes the importance of considering both hegemonic and marginalized ideas about animals in the light of the material interactions, relations of power and historical contexts that shape them. Understanding the attitudes and circumstances of the local communities who bear the physical and economic costs of living with dangerous animals is important-it threatens the future of conservation programmes and reveals the potential for significant abuses to accompany the conservation of wildlife in postcolonial contexts. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community associations of chalk grassland leafhoppers (Auchenorrhyncha): conclusions for habitat conservation

Due to their confinement to specific hostplants or restricted habitat types, Auchenorrhyncha have the potential to make suitable biological indicators to measure the quality of chalk grassland under different management practices for nature conservation. The Auchenorrhyncha data from a study designed to identify the factors influencing the invertebrate diversity of chalk grasslands in southern England was used to evaluate the potential use of this group of insects as biological indicators. Between 1998 and 2002 altogether 81 chalk grassland sites were sampled. Vegetation structure and composition were recorded, and Auchenorrhyncha were sampled at each site on three occasions in each of two seasons using a ‘Vortis’ suction sampler. Auchenorrhyncha assemblages were then linked to the different grassland plant communities occurring on chalk soils according to the British National Vegetation Classification (NVC). Altogether 96 Auchenorrhyncha species were recorded during the study. Using data on the frequency and dominance of species, as is commonly done for plant communities, it was possible to identify the preferential and differential species of distinct Auchenorrhyncha assemblages. Significant differences between the Auchenorrhyncha assemblages associated with the various chalk grassland plant communities of the NVC were observed down to a level of sub-communities. We conclude that data on Auchenorrhyncha assemblages can provide valuable information for the setting of conservation management priorities, where data on floristic composition alone may not be sufficient, providing additional information on aspects of vegetation structure and condition.

Challenges of in situ conservation of crop wild relatives

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) will gain in importance as changing climates put both traditional and advanced cultivars under increasing stress, leading to a need for plant breeding to produce new varieties able to grow under the new climate regimes. Traditionally, the approach to the conservation of CWRs has been ex situ - the collection and maintenance of seed accessions in national, regional, and international germplasm banks, supplemented by field genebanks for species with recalcitrant seeds. More recently the need to maintain CWRs in their natural habitats (in situ) has been advocated. This is very different from on-farm conservation of traditional land races and is a complex multidisciplinary process. Particular problems that have to be addressed include the adoption of a workable definition of what is a CWR, application of priority-determining mechanisms because of the large number of candidate species of CWRs, assessment of the effectiveness of conservation approaches, the relative costs of in situ and ex situ approaches, integration of CWR in situ conservation into national programmes, and the challenges posed by global change. CWRs may be conserved in both protected and non-protected areas. Presence in the former is no guarantee of their survival and in most cases some degree of management intervention is required. Experience derived from recent EU- and GEF-funded CWR conservation initiatives will be drawn upon.

Conservation and sustainable use of crop wild relatives

Conservation of crop wild relatives (CWRs) is a complex interdisciplinary process that is being addressed by various national and international initiatives, including two Global Environment Facility projects ('In situ Conservation of Crop Wild Relatives through Enhanced Information Management and Field Application' and 'Design, Testing and Evaluation of Best Practices for in situ Conservation of Economically Important Wild Species'), the European Community-funded project 'European Crop Wild Relative Diversity Assessment and Conservation Forum (PGR Forum)' and the European 'In situ and On Farm Network'. The key issues that have arisen are: (1) the definition of what constitutes a CWR, (2) the need for national and regional information systems and a global system, (3) development and application of priority-determining mechanisms, (4) the incorporation of the conservation of CWRs into existing national, regional and international PGR programmes, (5) assessment of the effectiveness of conservation actions, (6) awareness of the importance of CWRs in agricultural development at local, national and international levels both for the scientific and lay communities and (7) policy development and legal framework. The above issues are illustrated by work on the conservation of a group of legumes known as grasspea chicklings, vetchlings, and horticultural ornamental peas (Lathyrus spp.) in their European and Mediterranean centre of diversity. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Nonlinear stability of Euler flows in two-dimensional periodic domains

The non-quadratic conservation laws of the two-dimensional Euler equations are used to show that the gravest modes in a doubly-periodic domain with aspect ratio L = 1 are stable up to translations (or structurally stable) for finite-amplitude disturbances. This extends a previous result based on conservation of energy and enstrophy alone. When L 1, a saturation bound is established for the mode with wavenumber |k| = L −1 (the next-gravest mode), which is linearly unstable. The method is applied to prove nonlinear structural stability of planetary wave two on a rotating sphere.