Intramolecular Diels-Alder furan-mediated synthesis of 8-aryl-3, 4-di-hydroisoquinolin-1(2H)-ones, convenient precursors of indeno[1,2,3-ij]isoquinolines

We describe herein preliminary studies on the Intramolecular Diels-Alder Furan-Mediated Synthesis of 8-Aryl-3, 4-di-hydroisoquinolin-1(2H)-ones that constitutes a new, formal synthesis of Indeno[1,2,3-ij]isoquinolines.

The impact of urban wind environments on natural ventilation

The aim of this paper is to illustrate the impact of urban wind environments when assessing the availability of natural ventilation. A numerical study of urban airflow for a complex of five building blocks located at the University of Reading, UK is presented. The computational fluid dynamics software package ANSYS was used to simulate six typical cases of urban wind environments and the potential for natural ventilation assessed. The study highlights the impact of three typical architectural forms (street canyons, semi-enclosures and courtyards) on the local wind environment. Simulation results have also been compared with experimental data collected from six locations on the building complex. The study demonstrates that ventilation strategies formed using regional weather data, may have a propensity to over-estimate the potential for natural ventilation and cooling, due to the impact of urban form which creates a unique microclimate. Characteristics of urban wind flow patterns are presented as a guideline and can be used to assess the design and performance of natural or hybrid ventilation and the opportunity for passive cooling.

The mirror neuron system as revealed through neonatal imitation: presence from birth, predictive power, and evidence of plasticity

There is strong evidence that neonates imitate previously unseen behaviors. These behaviors are predominantly used in social interactions, demonstrating neonates’ ability and motivation to engage with others. Research on neonatal imitation can provide a wealth of information about the early mirror neuron system (MNS): namely, its functional characteristics, its plasticity from birth, and its relation to skills later in development. Though numerous studies document the existence of neonatal imitation in the laboratory, little is known about its natural occurrence during parent-infant interactions and its plasticity as a consequence of experience. We review these critical aspects of imitation, which we argue are necessary for understanding the early action-perception system. We address common criticisms and misunderstandings about neonatal imitation and discuss methodological differences among studies. Recent work reveals that individual differences in neonatal imitation positively correlate with later social, cognitive, and motor development. We propose that such variation in neonatal imitation could reflect important individual differences of the MNS. Although postnatal experience is not necessary for imitation, we present evidence that neonatal imitation is influenced by experience in the first week of life.

An overview on the urban boundary-layer atmosphere network in Helsinki

The Helsinki Urban Boundary-Layer Atmosphere Network (UrBAN: http://urban.fmi.fi) is a dedicated research-grade observational network where the physical processes in the atmosphere above the city are studied. Helsinki UrBAN is the most poleward intensive urban research observation network in the world and thus will allow studying some unique features such as strong seasonality. The network's key purpose is for the understanding of the physical processes in the urban boundary layer and associated fluxes of heat, momentum, moisture, and other gases. A further purpose is to secure a research-grade database, which can be used internationally to validate and develop numerical models of air quality and weather prediction. Scintillometers, a scanning Doppler lidar, ceilometers, a sodar, eddy-covariance stations, and radiometers are used. This equipment is supplemented by auxiliary measurements, which were primarily set up for general weather and/or air-quality mandatory purposes, such as vertical soundings and the operational Doppler radar network. Examples are presented as a testimony to the potential of the network for urban studies, such as (i) evidence of a stable boundary layer possibly coupled to an urban surface, (ii) the comparison of scintillometer data with sonic anemometry above an urban surface, (iii) the application of scanning lidar over a city, and (iv) combination of sodar and lidar to give a fuller range of sampling heights for boundary layer profiling.

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

Shared parenting, law and policy: considering power within the framework of autopoietic theory

This paper uses the last few decades’ developments in the area of shared parenting to explore power within the framework of autopoietic theory. It traces how, prompted by turbulence from the political subsystem, family law has made several unsuccessful attempts to solve the perceived problem of post-separation dual-household parenting. It agrees with Luhmann and Teubner that closed autopoietic systems’ developments are limited by their normative and cognitive frameworks, and also argues that changes, which have occurred in family law, show that closed social systems do not function in total isolation. It considers power as ego’s ability to limit alter’s choices. In our functionally differentiated society, with its recent proliferation of communication, power appears more diffuse and impossible to plot into causal one-way relationships.

Evaluation of a modern-analogue methodology for reconstructing Australian palaeoclimate from pollen

Quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions are widely used to evaluate climatemodel performance. Here, as part of an effort to provide such a data set for Australia, we examine the impact of analytical decisions and sampling assumptions on modern-analogue reconstructions using a continent-wide pollen data set. There is a high degree of correlation between temperature variables in the modern climate of Australia, but there is sufficient orthogonality in the variations of precipitation, summer and winter temperature and plant–available moisture to allow independent reconstructions of these four variables to be made. The method of analogue selection does not affect the reconstructions, although bootstrap resampling provides a more reliable technique for obtaining robust measures of uncertainty. The number of analogues used affects the quality of the reconstructions: the most robust reconstructions are obtained using 5 analogues. The quality of reconstructions based on post-1850 CE pollen samples differ little from those using samples from between 1450 and 1849 CE, showing that European post settlement modification of vegetation has no impact on the fidelity of the reconstructions although it substantially increases the availability of potential analogues. Reconstructions based on core top samples are more realistic than those using surface samples, but only using core top samples would substantially reduce the number of available analogues and therefore increases the uncertainty of the reconstructions. Spatial and/or temporal averaging of pollen assemblages prior to analysis negatively affects the subsequent reconstructions for some variables and increases the associated uncertainties. In addition, the quality of the reconstructions is affected by the degree of spatial smoothing of the original climate data, with the best reconstructions obtained using climate data froma 0.5° resolution grid, which corresponds to the typical size of the pollen catchment. This study provides a methodology that can be used to provide reliable palaeoclimate reconstructions for Australia, which will fill in a major gap in the data sets used to evaluate climate models.

Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis

This study aims at the determination of a Fram Strait cyclone track and of the cyclone’s impact on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration. A 24 h period on 13–14 March 2002 framed by two RADARSAT images is analyzed. Data are included from autonomous ice buoys, a research vessel, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and QuikSCAT satellite, and the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. During this 24 h period the cyclone moved northward along the western ice edge in the Fram Strait, crossed the northern ice edge, made a left-turn loop with 150 km diameter over the sea ice, and returned to the northern ice edge. The ECMWF analysis places the cyclone track 100 km too far west over the sea ice, a deviation which is too large for representative sea ice simulations. On the east side of the northward moving cyclone, the ice edge was pushed northward by 55 km because of strong winds. On the rear side, the ice edge advanced toward the open water but by a smaller distance because of weaker winds there. The ice drift pattern as calculated from the ice buoys and the two RADARSAT images is cyclonically curved around the center of the cyclone loop. Ice drift divergence shows a spatial pattern with divergence in the loop center and a zone of convergence around. Ice concentration changes as retrieved from SSM/I data follow the divergence pattern such that sea ice concentration increased in areas of divergence and decreased in areas of convergence.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.