Exploring smart grid possibilities: a complex systems modelling approach

Smart grid research has tended to be compartmentalised, with notable contributions from economics, electrical engineering and science and technology studies. However, there is an acknowledged and growing need for an integrated systems approach to the evaluation of smart grid initiatives. The capacity to simulate and explore smart grid possibilities on various scales is key to such an integrated approach but existing models – even if multidisciplinary – tend to have a limited focus. This paper describes an innovative and flexible framework that has been developed to facilitate the simulation of various smart grid scenarios and the interconnected social, technical and economic networks from a complex systems perspective. The architecture is described and related to realised examples of its use, both to model the electricity system as it is today and to model futures that have been envisioned in the literature. Potential future applications of the framework are explored, along with its utility as an analytic and decision support tool for smart grid stakeholders.

Semiotic modelling for complex enterprise systems

An enterprise is viewed as a complex system which can be engineered to accomplish organisational objectives. Systems analysis and modelling will enable to the planning and development of the enterprise and IT systems. Many IT systems design methods focus on functional and non-functional requirements of the IT systems. Most methods are normally capable of one but leave out other aspects. Analysing and modelling of both business and IT systems may often have to call on techniques from various suites of methods which may be placed on different philosophic and methodological underpinnings. Coherence and consistency between the analyses are hard to ensure. This paper introduces the Problem Articulation Method (PAM) which facilitates the design of an enterprise system infrastructure on which an IT system is built. Outcomes of this analysis represent requirements which can be further used for planning and designing a technical system. As a case study, a finance system, Agresso, for e-procurement has been used in this paper to illustrate the applicability of PAM in modelling complex systems.

Modelling fatigue damage distribution to inform slip and cut policy for riser tensioner ropes

The paper describes a method whereby the distribution of fatigue damage along riser tensioner ropes is calculated, taking account of heave motion, set tension, system geometry, tidal range and rope specification. From these data the distribution of damage along the rope is calculated for a given time period using a Miner’s summation method. This information can then be used to help the operator decide on the length of rope to ‘slip and cut’ whereby a length from the end of the rope is removed and the rope moved through the system from a storage drum such that sections of rope that have already suffered significant fatigue damage are not moved to positions where there is another peak in the distribution. There are two main advantages to be gained by using the fatigue damage model. The first is that it shows the amount of fatigue damage accumulating at different points along the rope, enabling the most highly damaged section to be removed well before failure. The second is that it makes for greater efficiency, as damage can be spread more evenly along the rope over time, avoiding the need to scrap long sections of undamaged rope.

Modelling the uptake and growth kinetics of Penicillium glabrum in a tannic acid-containing solid-state fermentation for tannase production

A mathematical growth model for the batch solid-state fermentation process for fungal tannase production was developed and tested experimentally. The unstructured model describes the uptake and growth kinetics of Penicillium glabrum in an impregnated polyurethane foam substrate system. In general, good agreement between the experimental data and model simulations was obtained. Biomass, tannase and spore production are described by logistic kinetics with a time delay between biomass production and tannase and spore formation. Possible induction mechanisms for the latter are proposed. Hydrolysis of tannic acid, the main carbon source in the substrate system, is reasonably well described with Michaelis-Menten kinetics with time-varying enzyme concentration but a more complex reaction mechanism is suspected. The metabolism of gallic acid, a tannase-hydrolysis product of tannic acid, was shown to be growth limiting during the main growth phase. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling oil absorption during post-frying cooling - I: model development

Several studies have highlighted the importance of the cooling period in oil absorption in deep-fat fried products. Specifically, it has been established that the largest proportion of oil which ends up into the food, is sucked into the porous crust region after the fried product is removed from the oil bath, stressing the importance of this time interval. The main objective of this paper was to develop a predictive mechanistic model that can be used to understand the principles behind post-frying cooling oil absorption kinetics, which can also help identifying the key parameters that affect the final oil intake by the fried product. The model was developed for two different geometries, an infinite slab and an infinite cylinder, and was divided into two main sub-models, one describing the immersion frying period itself and the other describing the post-frying cooling period. The immersion frying period was described by a transient moving-front model that considered the movement of the crust/core interface, whereas post-frying cooling oil absorption was considered to be a pressure driven flow mediated by capillary forces. A key element in the model was the hypothesis that oil suction would only begin once a positive pressure driving force had developed. The mechanistic model was based on measurable physical and thermal properties, and process parameters with no need of empirical data fitting, and can be used to study oil absorption in any deep-fat fried product that satisfies the assumptions made.

Modelling oil absorption during post-frying cooling - II: solution of the mathematical model, model testing and simulations

The mathematical models that describe the immersion-frying period and the post-frying cooling period of an infinite slab or an infinite cylinder were solved and tested. Results were successfully compared with those found in the literature or obtained experimentally, and were discussed in terms of the hypotheses and simplifications made. The models were used as the basis of a sensitivity analysis. Simulations showed that a decrease in slab thickness and core heat capacity resulted in faster crust development. On the other hand, an increase in oil temperature and boiling heat transfer coefficient between the oil and the surface of the food accelerated crust formation. The model for oil absorption during cooling was analysed using the tested post-frying cooling equation to determine the moment in which a positive pressure driving force, allowing oil suction within the pore, originated. It was found that as crust layer thickness, pore radius and ambient temperature decreased so did the time needed to start the absorption. On the other hand, as the effective convective heat transfer coefficient between the air and the surface of the slab increased the required cooling time decreased. In addition, it was found that the time needed to allow oil absorption during cooling was extremely sensitive to pore radius, indicating the importance of an accurate pore size determination in future studies.

A multi-agent architect for CSCW systems: from organisational semiotics perspective

This paper describes a multi-agent architecture to support CSCW systems modelling. Since CSCW involves different organizations, it can be seen as a social model. From this point of view, we investigate the possibility of modelling CSCW by agent technology, and then based on organizational semiotics method a multi-agent architecture is proposed via using EDA agent model. We explain the components of this multi-agent architecture and design process. It is argued that this approach provides a new perspective for modelling CSCW systems.

Modelling the impact of land use change on water quality in agricultural catchments

Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological path-ways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance-decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity.

Substitutional and orientational disorder in organic crystals: a symmetry-adapted ensemble model

Modelling of disorder in organic crystals is highly desirable since it would allow thermodynamic stabilities and other disorder-sensitive properties to be estimated for such systems. Two disordered organic molecular systems are modeled using a symmetry-adapted ensemble approach, in which the disordered system is treated as an ensemble of the configurations of a supercell with respect to substitution of one disorder component for another. Computation time is kept manageable by performing calculations only on the symmetrically inequivalent configurations. Calculations are presented on a substitutionally disordered system, the dichloro/dibromobenzene solid solution, and on an orientationally disordered system, eniluracil, and the resultant free energies, disorder patterns, and system properties are discussed. The results are found to be in agreement with experiment following manual removal of physically implausible configurations from ensemble averages, highlighting the dangers of a completely automated approach to organic crystal thermodynamics which ignores the barriers to equilibration once the crystal has been formed.

System dynamics mapping of acute patient flows

Department of Health staff wished to use systems modelling to discuss acute patient flows with groups of NHS staff. The aim was to assess the usefulness of system dynamics (SD) in a healthcare context and to elicit proposals concerning ways of improving patient experience. Since time restrictions excluded simulation modelling, a hybrid approach using stock/flow symbols from SD was created. Initial interviews and hospital site visits generated a series of stock/flow maps. A ‘Conceptual Framework’ was then created to introduce the mapping symbols and to generate a series of questions about different patient paths and what might speed or slow patient flows. These materials formed the centre of three workshops for NHS staff. The participants were able to propose ideas for improving patient flows and the elicited data was subsequently employed to create a finalized suite of maps of a general acute hospital. The maps and ideas were communicated back to the Department of Health and subsequently assisted the work of the Modernization Agency.

Modelling complex systems for project planning - A semiotics motivated method

A large and complex IT project may involve multiple organizations and be constrained within a temporal period. An organization is a system comprising of people, activities, processes, information, resources and goals. Understanding and modelling such a project and its interrelationship with relevant organizations are essential for organizational project planning. This paper introduces the problem articulation method (PAM) as a semiotic method for organizational infrastructure modelling. PAM offers a suite of techniques, which enables the articulation of the business, technical and organizational requirements, delivering an infrastructural framework to support the organization. It works by eliciting and formalizing (e. g. processes, activities, relationships, responsibilities, communications, resources, agents, dependencies and constraints) and mapping these abstractions to represent the manifestation of the "actual" organization. Many analysts forgo organizational modelling methods and use localized ad hoc and point solutions, but this is not amenable for organizational infrastructures modelling. A case study of the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) will be used to demonstrate the applicability of PAM, and to examine its relevancy and significance in dealing with the innovation and changes in the organizations.

Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: A study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada

High rates of nutrient loading from agricultural and urban development have resulted in surface water eutrophication and groundwater contamination in regions of Ontario. In Lake Simcoe (Ontario, Canada), anthropogenic nutrient contributions have contributed to increased algal growth, low hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations, and impaired fish reproduction. An ambitious programme has been initiated to reduce phosphorus loads to the lake, aiming to achieve at least a 40% reduction in phosphorus loads by 2045. Achievement of this target necessitates effective remediation strategies, which will rely upon an improved understanding of controls on nutrient export from tributaries of Lake Simcoe as well as improved understanding of the importance of phosphorus cycling within the lake. In this paper, we describe a new model structure for the integrated dynamic and process-based model INCA-P, which allows fully-distributed applications, suited to branched river networks. We demonstrate application of this model to the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, and use INCA-P to simulate the fluxes of P entering the lake system, apportion phosphorus among different sources in the catchment, and explore future scenarios of land-use change and nutrient management to identify high priority sites for implementation of watershed best management practises.

Sensitivity of large-scale atmospheric analyses to humidity observations and its impact on the global water cycle and tropical and extratropical weather systems in ERA40

Reanalysis data obtained from data assimilation are increasingly used for diagnostic studies of the general circulation of the atmosphere, for the validation of modelling experiments and for estimating energy and water fluxes between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. Because fluxes are not specifically observed, but determined by the data assimilation system, they are not only influenced by the utilized observations but also by model physics and dynamics and by the assimilation method. In order to better understand the relative importance of humidity observations for the determination of the hydrological cycle, in this paper we describe an assimilation experiment using the ERA40 reanalysis system where all humidity data have been excluded from the observational data base. The surprising result is that the model, driven by the time evolution of wind, temperature and surface pressure, is able to almost completely reconstitute the large-scale hydrological cycle of the control assimilation without the use of any humidity data. In addition, analysis of the individual weather systems in the extratropics and tropics using an objective feature tracking analysis indicates that the humidity data have very little impact on these systems. We include a discussion of these results and possible consequences for the way moisture information is assimilated, as well as the potential consequences for the design of observing systems for climate monitoring. It is further suggested, with support from a simple assimilation study with another model, that model physics and dynamics play a decisive role for the hydrological cycle, stressing the need to better understand these aspects of model parametrization. .

Monitoring and modelling the three-dimensional flow of water under drip irrigation

The interpretation of soil water dynamics under drip irrigation systems is relevant for crop production as well as on water use and management. In this study a three-dimensional representation of the flow of water under drip irrigation is presented. The work includes analysis of the water balance at point scale as well as area-average, exploring uncertainties in water balance estimations depending on the number of locations sampled. The water flow was monitored by detailed profile water content measurements before irrigation, after irrigation and 24 h later with a dense array of soil moisture access tubes radially distributed around selected drippers. The objective was to develop a methodology that could be used on selected occasions to obtain 'snap shots' of the detailed three-dimensional patterns of soil moisture. Such patterns are likely to be very complex, as spatial variability will be induced for a number of reasons, such as strong horizontal gradients in soil moisture, variations between individual sources in the amount of water applied and spatial variability is soil hydraulic properties. Results are compared with a widely used numerical model, Hydrus-2D. The observed dynamic of the water content distribution is in good agreement with model simulations, although some discrepancies concerning the horizontal distribution of the irrigation bulb are noted due to soil heterogeneity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.