Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?

Recent analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the stratosphere and troposphere has suggested that predictability of the state of the tropospheric AO may be obtained from the state of the stratospheric AO. However, much of this research has been of a purely qualitative nature. We present a more thorough statistical analysis of a long AO amplitude dataset which seeks to establish the magnitude of such a link. A relationship between the AO in the lower stratosphere and on the 1000 hPa surface on a 10-45 day time-scale is revealed. The relationship accounts for 5% of the variance of the 1000 hPa time series at its peak value and is significant at the 5% level. Over a similar time-scale the 1000 hPa time series accounts for 1% of itself and is not significant at the 5% level. Further investigation of the relationship reveals that it is only present during the winter season and in particular during February and March. It is also demonstrated that using stratospheric AO amplitude data as a predictor in a simple statistical model results in a gain of skill of 5% over a troposphere-only statistical model. This gain in skill is not repeated if an unrelated time series is included as a predictor in the model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Interface vulnerability and knowledge of the subjunctive/indicative distinction with negated epistemic predicates in L2 Spanish.

Much recent research in SLA is guided by the hypothesis of L2 interface vulnerability (see Sorace 2005). This study contributes to this general project by examining the acquisition of two classes of subjunctive complement clauses in L2 Spanish: subjunctive complements of volitional predicates (purely syntactic) and subjunctive vs. indicative complements with negated epistemic matrix predicates, where the mood distinction is discourse dependent (thus involving the syntax-discourse interface). We provide an analysis of the volitional subjunctive in English and Spanish, suggesting that English learners of L2 Spanish need to access the functional projection Mood P and an uninterpretable modal feature on the Force head available to them from their formal English register grammar, and simultaneously must unacquire the structure of English for-to clauses. For negated epistemic predicates, our analysis maintains that they need to revalue the modal feature on the Force head from uninterpretable to interpretable, within the L2 grammar.With others (e.g. Borgonovo & Prévost 2003; Borgonovo, Bruhn de Garavito & Prévost 2005) and in line with Sorace's (2000, 2003, 2005) notion of interface vulnerability, we maintain that the latter case is more difficult for L2 learners, which is borne out in the data we present. However, the data also show that the indicative/subjunctive distinction with negated epistemics can be acquired by advanced stages of acquisition, questioning the notion of obligatory residual optionality for all properties which require the integration of syntactic and discourse information.

W(h)ither phonological awareness? Literate trainee teachers’ lack of stable knowledge about the sound structure of words

Recent national developments in the teaching of literacy in the early years in the UK mean that teachers need to have explicit fluent knowledge of the sound structure of the language and its relationship to orthography in order to teach reading effectively. In this study, a group of 38 graduate trainee primary teachers were given a pencil and paper test of phonological awareness as part of a course on teaching literacy. Results from the pencil and paper test were used as the basis of teaching about the sound structure of words. The test was repeated six months later. The results showed that they did not use a consistent system for segmenting words into component sounds. Though there was substantial improvement on second testing, many trainees still did not show evidence that they had yet developed sufficient insights into the sound structure of words to be able to teach children about phonemes with certainty. It is argued that student teachers need substantial explicit training and practice in manipulating the sound structure of words to enable them to teach this aspect of language confidently.

Language capital and development: the case of African language publishing for children in South Africa

In recognizing 11 official languages, the 1996 South African Constitution provides a context for the management of diversity with important implications for the redistribution of wealth and power. The development and implementation of the language-in-education policies which might be expected to flow from the Constitution, however, have been slow and ineffective. One of the casualties of government procrastination has been African language publishing. In the absence of well-resourced bilingual education, most learners continue to be taught through the medium of English as a second language. Teachers are reluctant to use more innovative pedagogies without the support of adequate African language materials and publishers are cautious about producing such materials. Nonetheless, activity in this sector offers many opportunities for African language speakers. This paper explores the challenges and constraints for African language publishing for children and argues that market forces and language policy need to work in mutually reinforcing ways. Further progress is necessarily dependent on the political will to implement language-in-education policies that promote additive bilingualism and, in the process, guarantee sales for risk-averse publishers.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

Microbial relatives of the seed storage proteins of higher plants: conservation of structure and diversification of function during evolution of the cupin superfamily.

This review summarizes the recent discovery of the cupin superfamily (from the Latin term "cupa," a small barrel) of functionally diverse proteins that initially were limited to several higher plant proteins such as seed storage proteins, germin (an oxalate oxidase), germin-like proteins, and auxin-binding protein. Knowledge of the three-dimensional structure of two vicilins, seed proteins with a characteristic beta-barrel core, led to the identification of a small number of conserved residues and thence to the discovery of several microbial proteins which share these key amino acids. In particular, there is a highly conserved pattern of two histidine-containing motifs with a varied intermotif spacing. This cupin signature is found as a central component of many microbial proteins including certain types of phosphomannose isomerase, polyketide synthase, epimerase, and dioxygenase. In addition, the signature has been identified within the N-terminal effector domain in a subgroup of bacterial AraC transcription factors. As well as these single-domain cupins, this survey has identified other classes of two-domain bicupins including bacterial gentisate 1, 2-dioxygenases and 1-hydroxy-2-naphthoate dioxygenases, fungal oxalate decarboxylases, and legume sucrose-binding proteins. Cupin evolution is discussed from the perspective of the structure-function relationships, using data from the genomes of several prokaryotes, especially Bacillus subtilis. Many of these functions involve aspects of sugar metabolism and cell wall synthesis and are concerned with responses to abiotic stress such as heat, desiccation, or starvation. Particular emphasis is also given to the oxalate-degrading enzymes from microbes, their biological significance, and their value in a range of medical and other applications.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

Modulation of the microbial ecology of the human colon by probiotics, prebiotics and synbiotics to enhance human health: an overview of enabling science and potential applications

The application of probiotics and prebiotics to the manipulation of the microbial ecology of the human colon has recently seen many scientific advances. The sequencing of probiotic genomes is providing a wealth of new information on the biology of these microorganisms. In addition, we are learning more about the interactions of probiotics with human cells and with pathogenic bacteria. An alternative means of modulating the colonic microbial community is by the use of prebiotic oligosaccharides. Increasing knowledge of the metabolism of prebiotics by probiotics is allowing us to consider specifically targeting such dietary intervention tools at specific populatiori groups and specific disease states. (c) 2005 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The functional neuroanatomy of the evolving parent–infant relationship

Infant survival and the development of secure and cooperative relationships are central to the future of the species. In humans, this relies heavily on the evolving early parent–infant social and affective relationship. While much is known about the behavioural and psychological components of this relationship, relatively little is known about the underlying functional neuroanatomy. Affective and social neuroscience has helped to describe the main adult brain networks involved, but has so far engaged very little with developmental findings. In this review, we seek to highlight future avenues for research by providing a coherent framework for describing the parent–infant relationship over the first 18 months. We provide an outline of the evolving nature of the relationship, starting with basic orienting and recognition processes, and culminating in the infant's attainment of higher socio-emotional and cognitive capacities. Key social and affective interactions, such as communication, cooperative play and the establishment of specific attachments propel the development of the parent–infant relationship. We summarise our current knowledge of the developing infant brain in terms of structure and function, and how these relate to the emergent abilities necessary for the formation of a secure and cooperative relationship with parents or other caregivers. Important roles have been found for brain regions including the orbitofrontal, cingulate, and insular cortices in parent–infant interactions, but it has become clear that much more information is needed about the developmental time course and connectivity of these regions.

A comparison of space weather analysis techniques used to predict the arrival of the Earth-directed CME and its shockwave launched on 8 April 2010

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) of 8 April 2010 provided an opportunity for space weather predictions from both established and developmental techniques to be made from near–real time data received from the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft; the STEREO spacecraft provide a unique view of Earth-directed events from outside the Sun-Earth line. Although the near–real time data transmitted by the STEREO Space Weather Beacon are significantly poorer in quality than the subsequently downlinked science data, the use of these data has the advantage that near–real time analysis is possible, allowing actual forecasts to be made. The fact that such forecasts cannot be biased by any prior knowledge of the actual arrival time at Earth provides an opportunity for an unbiased comparison between several established and developmental forecasting techniques. We conclude that for forecasts based on the STEREO coronagraph data, it is important to take account of the subsequent acceleration/deceleration of each CME through interaction with the solar wind, while predictions based on measurements of CMEs made by the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers would benefit from higher temporal and spatial resolution. Space weather forecasting tools must work with near–real time data; such data, when provided by science missions, is usually highly compressed and/or reduced in temporal/spatial resolution and may also have significant gaps in coverage, making such forecasts more challenging.

Investigation of the faecal microbiota of geriatric cats

Aims: To investigate the faecal microbiota of geriatric cats, as aging affects the nutrient digestibility and metabolic function of the feline intestine. Methods and results: 20 geriatric cats were randomly assigned to two groups that were fed different foods. Coriobacteriaceae, Clostridium cluster XIV, bifidobacteria, and lactic acid bacteria were the dominant faecal bacterial groups, accounting for ∼40% of total bacteria. Clostridium cluster IX was less predominant (0.5% of total bacteria), while the remaining bacterial populations enumerated only accounted for 0.2% of total bacteria. Highly diverse microbial profiles were demonstrated for geriatric cats with denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis, although a few common bands were evident. Some differences were seen in the feline faecal microbiota between animal groups at the same time or over time for individual animals. However, no obvious clustering based on animal group or sample time was indicated. Conclusions: geriatric cats harboured a complex faecal microbiota and ∼41% of total bacteria have been detected with the probes employed. Significance and impact of study: First molecular-based study examining faecal microbiota of geriatric felines. Knowledge of the microbiota associated with ageing in cats may allow improved development of foods specific for the needs of senior cats.

Improved predictability of the troposphere using stratospheric final warmings

The final warming of the stratospheric polar vortex at the end of northern hemisphere winter is examined in ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data and an ensemble of chemistry climate models, using 20 years of data from each. In some years the final warming is found to occur first in the mid-stratosphere, and in others to occur first in the upper stratosphere. The strength of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, refraction of planetary waves, and the altitudes at which the planetary waves break in the northern extratropics lead to this difference in the vertical profile of the final warming. Years in which the final warming occurs first in the mid-stratosphere show, on average, a more negative NAO pattern in April mean sea level pressure than years in which the warming occurs first in the upper stratosphere. Thus, in the northern hemisphere, additional predictive skill of tropospheric climate in April can be gained from a knowledge of the vertical profile of the stratospheric final warming.

Holocene environmental changes in the lower Thames Valley, London, UK: implications for our understanding of the history of Taxus woodland

A radiocarbon-dated multiproxy palaeoenvironmental record from the Lower Thames Valley at Hornchurch Marshes has provided a reconstruction of the timing and nature of vegetation succession against a background of Holocene climate change, relative sea level movement and human activities. The investigation recorded widespread peat formation between c. 6300 and 3900 cal. yr BP (marine ‘regression’), succeeded by evidence for marine incursion. The multiproxy analyses of these sediments, comprising pollen, Coleoptera, diatoms, and plant and wood macrofossils, have indicated significant changes in both the wetland and dryland environment, including the establishment of Alnus (Alder) carr woodland, and the decline of both Ulmus (Elm; c. 5740 cal. yr BP) and Tilia (Lime; c. 5600 cal. yr BP, and 4160–3710 cal. yr BP). The beetle faunas from the peat also suggest a thermal climate similar to that of the present day. At c. 4900 cal. yr BP, Taxus (L.; Yew) woodland colonised the peatland forming a plant community that has no known modern analogue in the UK. The precise reason, or reasons, for this event remain unclear, although changes in peatland hydrology seem most likely. The growth of Taxus on peatland not only has considerable importance for our knowledge of the vegetation history of southeast England, and NW Europe generally, but also has wider implications for the interpretation of Holocene palaeobotanical records. At c. 3900 cal. yr BP, Taxus declined on the peatland surface during a period of major hydrological change (marine incursion), an event also strongly associated with the decline of dryland woodland taxa, including Tilia and Quercus, and the appearance of anthropogenic indicators.

The vertical cloud structure of the West African monsoon: a 4 year climatology using CloudSat and CALIPSO

The West African summer monsoon (WAM) is an important driver of the global climate and locally provides most of the annual rainfall. A solid climatological knowledge of the complex vertical cloud structure is invaluable to forecasters and modelers to improve the understanding of the WAM. In this paper, 4 years of data from the CloudSat profiling radar and CALIPSO are used to create a composite zonal mean vertical cloud and precipitation structure for the WAM. For the first time, the near-coincident vertical radar and lidar profiles allow for the identification of individual cloud types from optically thin cirrus and shallow cumulus to congestus and deep convection. A clear diurnal signal in zonal mean cloud structure is observed for the WAM, with deep convective activity enhanced at night producing extensive anvil and cirrus, while daytime observations show more shallow cloud and congestus. A layer of altocumulus is frequently observed over the Sahara at night and day, extending southward to the coastline, and the majority of this cloud is shown to contain supercooled liquid in the top. The occurrence of deep convective systems and congestus in relation to the position of the African easterly jet is studied, but only the daytime cumulonimbus distribution indicates some influence of the jet position.