City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable transitions

Cities are responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption. By 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city-regions (i.e. the city and its wider hinterland) to re-engineer systemically their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. To inform transitions to urban sustainability, key stakeholders' perceptions were sought though a participatory backcasting and scenario foresight process in order to illuminate challenging but realistic socio-technical scenarios for the systemic retrofit of core UK city-regions. The challenge of conceptualizing complex urban transitions is explored across multiple socio-technical ‘regimes’ (housing, non-domestic buildings, urban infrastructure), scales (building, neighbourhood, city-region), and domains (energy, water, use of resources) within a participatory process. The development of three archetypal ‘guiding visions’ of retrofit city-regional futures developed through this process are discussed, along with the contribution that such foresight processes might play in ‘opening up’ the governance and strategic navigation of urban sustainability.

Office sustainability: occupier perceptions and implementation of policy

Purpose – The purpose of this research was twofold. First, to investigate the views of occupiers in a typical UK city on the importance of various sustainability issues, their perceived impact of different sustainability drivers and willingness to pay. Second, the environmental and social performance of existing buildings in that city was examined. Design/methodology/approach – The research focuses on buildings of 10,000 feet2 or more that have been constructed in the Bristol city-region in the UK over the past 50 years. The buildings in the sample are located in the city centre and in out-of-town business parks. A questionnaire survey investigated the views of occupiers and follow-up interviews looked more closely at the sustainability performance of the existing stock. Findings – The findings indicate that, as far as occupiers are concerned, the strongest drivers are consumer demand and staff demand. Green features of a building appear to rank low in the overall building selection preference structure and a willingness to pay a premium for green features was indicated. The interviews uncovered barriers to progress as well as initiatives to reduce both energy consumption and the environmental impact of office space. Practical implications – The paper identifies progress and issues which could form obstacles to improving the environmental performance of office buildings. It is argued that there is a need to focus on energy efficiency. Originality/value – This paper explores the linkage between the perception and use of office space by occupants and how this affects the environmental performance of this space.

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

The role of location in knowledge creation and diffusion: evidence of centripetal and centrifugal forces in the City of London financial services agglomeration

In this paper we report on a major empirical study of centripetal and centrifugal forces in the City of London financial services agglomeration. The study sheds light on (1) the manner and magnitude of firm interaction in the agglomeration; (2) the characteristics of the agglomeration that aid the competitiveness of incumbent firms; and (3) the problems associated with agglomeration. In addressing these issues, we use the data to (1) test emerging theory that explains the high productivity and innovation of agglomerations in terms of their ability to generate and diffuse knowledge; and (2) evaluate the ‘end of geography’ thesis.

Modern approaches to floristics and their impact on the region of SW Asia

Attitudes to floristics have changed considerably during the past few decades as a result of increasing and often more focused consumer demands, heightened awareness of the threats to biodiversity, information flow and overload, and the application of electronic and web-based techniques to information handling and processing. This paper will examine these concerns in relation to our floristic knowledge and needs in the region of SW Asia. Particular reference will be made to the experience gained from the Euro+Med PlantBase project for the preparation of an electronic plant-information system for Europe and the Mediterranean, with a single core list of accepted plant names and synonyms, based on consensus taxonomy agreed by a specialist network. The many challenges Ð scientific, technical and organisational Ð that it has presented will be discussed as well as the problems of handling nontaxonomic information from fields such as conservation, karyology, biosystematics and mapping. The question of regional cooperation and the sharing of efforts and resources will also be raised and attention drawn to the recent planning workshop held in Rabat (May 2002) for establishing a technical cooperation network for taxonomic capacity building in North Africa as a possible model for the SW Asia region.

Potential roles and clinical utility of prebiotics in newborns, infants, and children: proceedings from a global prebiotic summit meeting, New York City, June 27-28, 2008

Initial bacterial colonization, including colonization with health-positive bacteria, such as bifidobacteria and lactobacilli, is necessary for the normal development of intestinal innate and adaptive immune defenses. The predominance of beneficial bacteria in the gut microflora of breast-fed infants is thought to be, at least in part, supported by the metabolism of the complex mixture of oligosaccharides present in human breast milk, and a more adult-type intestinal microbiota is found in formula-fed infants. Inadequate gut colonization, dysbiosis, may lead to an increased risk of infectious, allergic, and autoimmune disorders later in life. The addition of appropriate amounts of selected prebiotics to infant formulas can enhance the growth of bifidobacteria or lactobacilli in the colonic microbiota and, thereby, might produce beneficial effects. Among the substrates considered as prebiotics are the oligosaccharides inulin, fructo-oligosaccharides, galacto-oligosaccharides, and lactulose. There are some reports that such prebiotics have beneficial effects on various markers of health. For example, primary prevention trials in infants have provided promising data on prevention of infections and atopic dermatitis. Additional well-designed prospective clinical trials and mechanistic studies are needed to advance knowledge further in this promising field. (J Pediatr 2009;155:S61-70).

Addressing animal health knowledge gaps in Southern Countries: the creation of a 2D animal health resource room

Livestock are a key asset for the global poor. However, access to relevant information is a critical issue for both livestock development practitioners and the poor themselves. Therefore, the following paper details the creation of an on-line Animal Health Resource Room. The aim was to create an immersive environment, which mimics the benefits of a 3D Virtual Learning Environment without the constraints on download times. Therefore, in the following paper key issues in the dissemination of such a platform such as connectivity and speed are explored within the wider context of the development of the tool itself.

Long run relationships between City office rents and the economy in the UK: creating a database for research

This paper sets out progress during the first eighteen months of doctoral research into the City of London office market. The overall aim of the research is to explore relationships between office rents and the economy in the UK over the last 150 years. To do this, a database of lettings has been created from which a long run index of City office rents can be constructed. With this index, it should then be possible to analyse trends in rents and relationships with their long run determinants. The focus of this paper is on the creation of the rent database. First, it considers the existing secondary sources of long run rental data for the UK. This highlights a lack of information for years prior to 1970 and the need for primary data collection if earlier periods are to be studied. The paper then discusses the selection of the City of London and of the time period chosen for research. After this, it describes how a dataset covering the period 1860-1960 has been assembled using the records of property companies active in the City office market. It is hoped that, if successful, this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the long run characteristics of commercial real estate. In particular, it should add a price dimension (rents) to the existing long run information on stock/supply and investment. Hence, it should enable a more complete picture of the development and performance of commercial real estate through time to be gained.