Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Nitrate transport in Chalk catchments: monitoring, modelling and policy implications

Rising nitrate levels have been observed in UK Chalk catchments in recent decades, with concentrations now approaching or exceeding legislated maximum values in many areas. In response, strategies seeking to contain concentrations through appropriate land management are now in place. However, there is an increasing consensus that Chalk systems, a predominant landscape type over England and indeed northwest Europe, can retard decades of prior nitrate loading within their deep unsaturated zones. Current levels may not fully reflect the long-term impact of present-day practices, and stringent land management controls may not be enough to avert further medium-term rises. This paper discusses these issues in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive, drawing on data from recent experimental work and a new model (INCA-Chalk) that allows the impacts of different land use management practices to be explored. Results strongly imply that timelines for water quality improvement demanded by the Water Framework directive are not realistic for the Chalk, and give an indication of time-scales over which improvements might be achieved. However, important unresolved scientific issues remain, and further monitoring and targeted data collection is recommended to reduce prediction uncertainties and allow cost effective strategies for mitigation to be designed and implemented. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are inversely coupled during regulation of negative affect and predict the diurnal pattern of cortisol secretion among older adults

Among younger adults, the ability to willfully regulate negative affect, enabling effective responses to stressful experiences, engages regions of prefrontal cortex (PFC) and the amygdala. Because regions of PFC and the amygdala are known to influence the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, here we test whether PFC and amygdala responses during emotion regulation predict the diurnal pattern of salivary cortisol secretion. We also test whether PFC and amygdala regions are engaged during emotion regulation in older (62- to 64-year-old) rather than younger individuals. We measured brain activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging as participants regulated (increased or decreased) their affective responses or attended to negative picture stimuli. We also collected saliva samples for 1 week at home for cortisol assay. Consistent with previous work in younger samples, increasing negative affect resulted in ventral lateral, dorsolateral, and dorsomedial regions of PFC and amygdala activation. In contrast to previous work, decreasing negative affect did not produce the predicted robust pattern of higher PFC and lower amygdala activation. Individuals demonstrating the predicted effect (decrease s attend in the amygdala), however, exhibited higher signal in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) for the same contrast. Furthermore, participants displaying higher VMPFC and lower amygdala signal when decreasing compared with the attention control condition evidenced steeper, more normative declines in cortisol over the course of the day. Individual differences yielded the predicted link between brain function while reducing negative affect in the laboratory and diurnal regulation of endocrine activity in the home environment.

Individual Differences in Amygdala and Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Activity are Associated with Evaluation Speed and Psychological Well-being

Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined whether individual differences in amygdala activation in response to negative relative to neutral information are related to differences in the speed with which such information is evaluated, the extent to which such differences are associated with medial prefrontal cortex function, and their relationship with measures of trait anxiety and psychological well-being (PWB). Results indicated that faster judgments of negative relative to neutral information were associated with increased left and right amygdala activation. In the prefrontal cortex, faster judgment time was associated with relative decreased activation in a cluster in the ventral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, BA 24). Furthermore, people who were slower to evaluate negative versus neutral information reported higher PWB. Importantly, higher PWB was strongly associated with increased activation in the ventral ACC for negative relative to neutral information. Individual differences in trait anxiety did not predict variation in judgment time or in amygdala or ventral ACC activity. These findings suggest that people high in PWB effectively recruit the ventral ACC when confronted with potentially aversive stimuli, manifest reduced activity in subcortical regions such as the amygdala, and appraise such information as less salient as reflected in slower evaluative speed.

Interactions between age and apoE genotype on fasting and postprandial triglycerides levels

Objective The influences of genetic determinants on the magnitude of postprandial lipaemia are presently unclear. Here the impact of the common apolipoprotein (apo)E epsilon mutation on the postprandial triglyceride (TG) response is determined, along with an assessment of genotype penetrance according to age, body mass index and gender. Methods and results Healthy adults (n = 251) underwent a postprandial investigation, in which blood samples were taken at regular intervals after a test breakfast (0 min, 49 g fat) and lunch (330 min, 29 g fat) until 480 min after the test breakfast. There was a significant impact of apoE genotype on fasting total cholesterol (TC), (P = 0.027), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), (P = 0.008), and %LDL3 (P = 0.001), with higher and lower levels in the E4 and E2 carriers respectively relative to the E3/E3 genotype. Reflective of a higher fasting TG (P = 0.001), a significantly higher area under the curve for the postprandial TG response (TG AUC) was evident in the E4 carriers relative to the E3/E3 group (P = 0.038). In the group as a whole, a significant age × genotype interaction was observed for fasting TC (P = 0.021). In the participants >50 years there was a significant impact of genotype on TC (P = 0.005), LDL-C (P = 0.001) and TAG AUC (P = 0.028). Conclusions It is possible that an exaggerated postprandial lipaemia contributes to the increased coronary heart disease risk associated with carriers of the E4 allele; an effect which is more evident in older adults.

Pathogenicity and other genomic islands in plant pathogenic bacteria

Pathogenicity islands (PAIs) were first described in uropathogenic E. coli. They are now defined as regions of DNA that contain virulence genes and are present in the genome of pathogenic strains, but absent from or only rarely present in non-pathogenic variants of the same or related strains. Other features include a variable G+C content, distinct boundaries from the rest of the genome and the presence of genes related to mobile elements such as insertion sequences, integrases and transposases. Although PAIs have now been described in a wide range of both plant and animal pathogens it has become evident that the general features of PAIs are displayed by a number of regions of DNA with functions other than pathogenicity, such as symbiosis and antibiotic resistance, and the general term genomic islands has been adopted. This review will describe a range of genomic islands in plant pathogenic bacteria including those that carry effector genes, phytotoxins and the type III protein secretion cluster. The review will also consider some medically important bacteria in order to discuss the range, acquisition and stabilization of genomic islands.

The impact of catechol-O-methyltransferase genotype on the acute responsiveness of vascular reactivity to a green tea extract

The beneficial effects of green tea catechins, such as the proposed improvement in endothelial function, may be influenced by phase II metabolism during and after absorption. The methylation enzyme, catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), has a missense mutation rs4680 (G to A), proposed to result in a 40 % reduction in enzyme activity. In the present pilot study, twenty subjects (ten of each homozygous COMT genotype) were recruited. Green tea extract capsules (836 mg green tea catechins) were given in a fasted state, and a high-carbohydrate breakfast was given after 60 min. Blood samples and vascular function measurements were taken at regular intervals. The change in digital volume pulse stiffness index (SI) from baseline was shown to be different between genotype groups at 120 and 240 min, with a lower SI in the GG individuals (P ≤ 0·044). The change in blood pressure from baseline also differed between genotype groups, with a greater increase in systolic (P = 0·023) and diastolic (P = 0·034) blood pressure at 120 min in the GG group. The AA group was shown to have a greater increase in insulin concentrations at 120 min (P = 0·019) and 180 min (P = 0·008) compared with baseline, despite similar glucose profiles. No genotypic differences were found in vascular reactivity measured using laser Doppler iontophoresis, total nitrite, lipids, plasma total antioxidant capacity or inflammatory markers after ingestion of the green tea extract. In conclusion, SI and insulin response to the glucose load differed between the COMT genotype groups, and this may be suggestive of a green tea extract and genotype interaction.

A preliminary investigation of the impact of catechol-O-methyltransferase genotype on the absorption and metabolism of green tea catechins

Purpose Green tea is thought to possess many beneficial effects on human health. However, the extent of green tea polyphenol biotransformation may affect its proposed therapeutic effects. Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), the enzyme responsible for polyphenolic methylation, has a common polymorphism in the genetic code at position 158 reported to result in a 40% reduction in enzyme activity in in vitro studies. The current preliminary study was designed to investigate the impact of COMT genotype on green tea catechin absorption and metabolism in humans. Methods Twenty participants (10 of each homozygous COMT genotype) were recruited, and plasma concentration profiles were produced for epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG), epigallocatechin (EGC), epicatechin gallate (ECG), epicatechin (EC) and 4′-O-methyl EGCG after 1.1 g of Sunphenon decaffeinated green tea extract (836 mg green tea catechins), with a meal given after 60 min. Results For the entire group, EGCG, EGC, EC, ECG and 4′-O-methyl EGCG reached maximum concentrations of 1.09, 0.41, 0.33, 0.16 and 0.08 μM at 81.5, 98.5, 99.0, 85.5 and 96.5 min, respectively. Bimodal curves were observed for the non-gallated green tea catechins EGC and EC as opposed to single-peaked curves for the gallated green tea catechins EGCG and ECG. No significant parametric differences between COMT genotype groups were found. Conclusions In conclusion, the COMT Val(158/108)Met does not appear to have a dramatic influence on EGCG absorption and elimination. However, further pharmacokinetic research is needed to substantiate these findings.

SATgene dietary model to implement diets of differing fat composition in prospectively genotyped groups (apoE) using commercially available foods

esponse to dietary fat manipulation is highly heterogeneous, yet generic population-based recommendations aimed at reducing the burden of CVD are given. The APOE epsilon genotype has been proposed to be an important determinant of this response. The present study reports on the dietary strategy employed in the SATgenɛ (SATurated fat and gene APOE) study, to assess the impact of altered fat content and composition on the blood lipid profile according to the APOE genotype. A flexible dietary exchange model was developed to implement three isoenergetic diets: a low-fat (LF) diet (target composition: 24 % of energy (%E) as fat, 8 %E SFA and 59 %E carbohydrate), a high-saturated fat (HSF) diet (38 %E fat, 18 %E SFA and 45 %E carbohydrate) and a HSF-DHA diet (HSF diet with 3 g DHA/d). Free-living participants (n 88; n 44 E3/E3 and n 44 E3/E4) followed the diets in a sequential design for 8 weeks, each using commercially available spreads, oils and snacks with specific fatty acid profiles. Dietary compositional targets were broadly met with significantly higher total fat (42·8 %E and 41·0 %E v. 25·1 %E, P ≤ 0·0011) and SFA (19·3 %E and 18·6 %E v. 8·33 %E, P ≤ 0·0011) intakes during the HSF and HSF-DHA diets compared with the LF diet, in addition to significantly higher DHA intake during the HSF-DHA diet (P ≤ 0·0011). Plasma phospholipid fatty acid analysis revealed a 2-fold increase in the proportion of DHA after consumption of the HSF-DHA diet for 8 weeks, which was independent of the APOE genotype. In summary, the dietary strategy was successfully implemented in a free-living population resulting in well-tolerated diets which broadly met the dietary targets set.