Towards global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

Children of the revolution: fathers and sons in antifascist DEFA films

The article looks at three antifascist films from the 1980s by the East German film company DEFA: Jürgen Brauer's Pugowitza (1981), Egon Schlegel's Die Schüsse der Arche Noah (1983), and Helmut Dziuba's Jan auf der Zille (1986), which during this final decade of the East German state re-examine an ideologically seminal constellation of the GDR's official antifascism – the relationship between antifascist father and son. Linking generational and political succession, the father-son relationship helped to legitimise the GDR as a state in which the young continued the antifascist fight of the old communists against the Nazi dictatorship. From the 1950s on, DEFA films contributed to the visualisation of this relationship, codifying it not only as heroic but also as ‘natural’: the assumed innocence of the communist son was meant to naturalise the father's antifascist/communist cause. The 1980s saw this naturalised political succession questioned. By re-telling the canonised father-son story, the three films visualise the generational antifascist contract as flawed. Re-deploying the son's assumed innocence in a critique of the father, they explore new endings to the antifascist story and revive the discussion of categories like ‘victim’ and ‘perpetrator’.// Der Aufsatz untersucht drei antifaschistische Filme der ostdeutschen Filmgesellschaft DEFA aus den 1980er Jahren: Jürgen Brauers Pugowitza (1981), Egon Schlegels Die Schüsse der Arche Noah (1983) und Helmut Dziubas Jan auf der Zille (1986). Alle drei Filme wurden im letzten Jahrzehnt der DDR gedreht und greifen eine ideologisch tragende Konstellation des offiziellen DDR-Antifaschismus auf – die Beziehung zwischen antifaschistischem Vater und Sohn. In der Vater-Sohn-Beziehung verband sich Generationenabfolge mit politischer Nachkommenschaft, eine Verbindung, die half, die DDR als einen Staat zu legitimieren, in dem die Jungen den antifaschistischen Kampf der alten Kommunisten gegen die Nazi-Diktatur weiterführten. Seit den 1950er Jahren beteiligte sich die DEFA an der Visuali-sierung dieser Beziehung und kodifizierte sie nicht nur als heldenhaft, sondern auch als ‘natürlich’: die behauptete Unschuld der kommunistschen Söhne diente dazu, den antifaschistisch-kommunistischen Kampf der Väter zu naturalisieren. Die solcher Art politisch interpretierte Generationenabfolge verlor ihre Natürlichkeit, als sie in den 1980er Jahren kritisch befragt wurde. Im nochmaligen Erzählen der kanonisierten Vater-Sohn-Geschichte wird die Brüchigkeit des antifaschistischen Gesellschaftsvertrags in allen drei Filmen sichtbar. Die vermeintliche Unschuld der Söhne wird nun zu einer Kritik der Väter genutzt, wobei die Filme ein neues Ende für die antifaschistische Geschichte erkunden und die Debatte über Kategorien wie ‘Opfer’ und ‘Täter’ wieder aufnehmen.

Cortical hot spots and labyrinths: why cortical neuromodulation for episodic migraine with aura should be personalized

Stimulation protocols for medical devices should be rationally designed. For episodic migraine with aura we outline model-based design strategies toward preventive and acute therapies using stereotactic cortical neuromodulation. To this end, we regard a localized spreading depression (SD) wave segment as a central element in migraine pathophysiology. To describe nucleation and propagation features of the SD wave segment, we define the new concepts of cortical hot spots and labyrinths, respectively. In particular, we firstly focus exclusively on curvature-induced dynamical properties by studying a generic reaction-diffusion model of SD on the folded cortical surface. This surface is described with increasing level of details, including finally personalized simulations using patient's magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner readings. At this stage, the only relevant factor that can modulate nucleation and propagation paths is the Gaussian curvature, which has the advantage of being rather readily accessible by MRI. We conclude with discussing further anatomical factors, such as areal, laminar, and cellular heterogeneity, that in addition to and in relation to Gaussian curvature determine the generalized concept of cortical hot spots and labyrinths as target structures for neuromodulation. Our numerical simulations suggest that these target structures are like fingerprints, they are individual features of each migraine sufferer. The goal in the future will be to provide individualized neural tissue simulations. These simulations should predict the clinical data and therefore can also serve as a test bed for exploring stereotactic cortical neuromodulation.