Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the Central Greater Caucasus, Russia

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

Intra-individual variation of serum prostate specific antigen levels in men with benign prostate biopsies

To determine the intra-individual (physiological) variation of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements in men after a benign prostatic biopsy. Sixty-four men were prospectively assessed, all of whom had a benign prostatic biopsy within the preceding 13 months. The degree of intra-individual variability was established by calculating the coefficient of variation on four PSA levels obtained from each patient weekly over a month. Six patients were subsequently diagnosed with prostate cancer and their data are presented separately. In the remaining 58 patients the median (range) individual mean PSA value was 6.3 (0.5-34.1) ng/mL. The median (range) coefficient of variation within the group was 9.5 (2.4-76.1)%. There was a clear linear relationship between mean PSA level and the standard deviation. In 48 of the 63 patients analysed, the coefficient of variation for serum PSA values in the group as a whole was greater than the variation claimed for the assay technique. The significance of the linear relationship between PSA and the standard deviation is discussed, with particular reference to those men who had a benign prostate biopsy.

A refined sampling strategy for intra-tooth stable isotope analysis of mammalian enamel

Serial sampling and stable isotope analysis performed along the growth axis of vertebrate tooth enamel records differences attributed to seasonal variation in diet, climate or animal movement. Because several months are required to obtain mature enamel in large mammals, modifications in the isotopic composition of environmental parameters are not instantaneously recorded, and stable isotope analysis of tooth enamel returns a time-averaged signal attenuated in its amplitude relative to the input signal. For convenience, stable isotope profiles are usually determined on the side of the tooth where enamel is thickest. Here we investigate the possibility of improving the time resolution by targeting the side of the tooth where enamel is thinnest. Observation of developing third molars (M3) in sheep shows that the tooth growth rate is not constant but decreases exponentially, while the angle between the first layer of enamel deposited and the enamel–dentine junction increases as a tooth approaches its maximal length. We also noted differences in thickness and geometry of enamel growth between the mesial side (i.e., the side facing the M2) and the buccal side (i.e., the side facing the cheek) of the M3. Carbon and oxygen isotope variations were measured along the M3 teeth from eight sheep raised under controlled conditions. Intra-tooth variability was systematically larger along the mesial side and the difference in amplitude between the two sides was proportional to the time of exposure to the input signal. Although attenuated, the mesial side records variations in the environmental signal more faithfully than the buccal side. This approach can be adapted to other mammals whose teeth show lateral variation in enamel thickness and could potentially be used as an internal check for diagenesis.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Green tea (Camellia sinensis) catechins and vascular function

The health benefits of green tea (Camellia sinensis) catechins are becoming increasingly recognised. Amongst the proposed benefits are the maintenance of endothelial function and vascular homeostasis and an associated reduction in atherogenesis and CVD risk. The mounting evidence for the influential effect of green tea catechins on vascular function from epidemiological, human intervention and animal studies is subject to review together with exploration of the potential mechanistic pathways involved. Epigallocatechin-3-gallate, one of the most abundant and widely studied catechin found in green tea, will be prominent in the present review. Since there is a substantial inconsistency in the published data with regards to the impact of green tea catechins on vascular function, evaluation and interpretation of the inter- and intra-study variability is included. In conclusion, a positive effect of green tea catechins on vascular function is becoming apparent. Further studies in animal and cell models using physiological concentrations of catechins and their metabolites are warranted in order to gain some insight into the physiology and molecular basis of the observed beneficial effects.

Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections

The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

A Lab-in-a-briefcase for rapid prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening from whole blood

We present a new concept for rapid and fully portable Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) measurement, termed “Lab-in-a-Briefcase”, which integrates an affordable microfluidic ELISA platform utilising a melt-extruded fluoropolymer Micro Capillary Film (MCF) containing 10 bore, 200 μm internal diameter capillaries, a disposable multi-syringe aspirator (MSA) plus a sample tray pre-loaded with all required immunoassay reagents, and a portable film scanner for colorimetric signal digital quantitation. Each MSA can perform 10 replicate microfluidic immunoassays on 8 samples, allowing 80measurements to be made in less than 15 minutes based on semi-automated operation and norequirement of additional fluid handling equipment. An assay was optimised for measurement of a clinically relevant range of PSA from 0.9 to 60.0 ng/ml in 15 minutes with CVs in the order of 5% based on intra-assay variability when read using a consumer flatbed film scanner. The PSA assay performance in the MSA remained robust in the presence of undiluted or 1:2 diluted human serum or whole blood, and the matrix effect could simply be overcome by extending sample incubation times. The PSA "Lab-in-a-briefcase" is particularly suited to a low-resource health setting where diagnostic labs and automated immunoassay systems are not accessible, by allowing PSA measurement outside the laboratory using affordable equipment.

Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle in a high-resolution GCM

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the chief source of tropical intra-seasonal variability, but is simulated poorly by most state-of-the-art GCMs. Common errors include a lack of eastward propagation at the correct frequency and zonal extent, and too small a ratio of eastward- to westward-propagating variability. Here it is shown that HiGEM, a high-resolution GCM, simulates a very realistic MJO with approximately the correct spatial and temporal scale. Many MJO studies in GCMs are limited to diagnostics which average over a latitude band around the equator, allowing an analysis of the MJO’s structure in time and longitude only. In this study a wider range of diagnostics is applied. It is argued that such an approach is necessary for a comprehensive analysis of a model’s MJO. The standard analysis of Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132(8):1917–1932, 2004; WH04) is applied to produce composites, which show a realistic spatial structure in the MJO envelopes but for the timing of the peak precipitation in the inter-tropical convergence zone, which bifurcates the MJO signal. Further diagnostics are developed to analyse the MJO’s episodic nature and the “MJO inertia” (the tendency to remain in the same WH04 phase from one day to the next). HiGEM favours phases 2, 3, 6 and 7; has too much MJO inertia; and dies out too frequently in phase 3. Recent research has shown that a key feature of the MJO is its interaction with the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent. This interaction is present in HiGEM but is unrealistically weak.

Contrasting responses to drought stress in herbaceous perennial legumes

Background and aims Medicago sativa L. is widely grown in southern Australia, but is poorly adapted to dry, hot summers. This study aimed to identify perennial herbaceous legumes with greater resistance to drought stress and explore their adaptive strategies. Methods Ten herbaceous perennial legume species/accessions were grown in deep pots in a sandy, low-phosphorus field soil in a glasshouse. Drought stress was imposed by ceasing to water. A companion M. sativa plant in each pot minimised differences in leaf area and water consumption among species. Plants were harvested when stomatal conductance of stressed plants decreased to around 10% of well watered plants. Results A range of responses to drought stress were identified, including: reduced shoot growth; leaf curling; thicker pubescence on leaves and stems; an increased root:shoot ratio; an increase, decrease or no change in root distribution with depth; reductions in specific leaf area or leaf water potential; and osmotic adjustment. The suite of changes differed substantially among species and, less so, among accessions. Conclusions The inter- and intra-specific variability of responses to drought-stress in the plants examined suggests a wide range of strategies are available in perennial legumes to cope with drying conditions, and these could be harnessed in breeding/selection programs.

Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of a benchmark wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021–2060 and 2061–2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveals a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is, in particular, probable during the second half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061–2100 compared to 2021–2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Resolving the spatial variability of soil N using fractions of soil organic matter

The spatial variability of soil nitrogen (N) mineralisation has not been extensively studied, which limits our capacity to make N fertiliser recommendations. Even less attention has been paid to the scale-dependence of the variation. The objective of this research was to investigate the scale-dependence of variation of mineral N (MinN, N–NO3− plus N–NH4+) at within-field scales. The study was based on the spatial dependence of the labile fractions of SOM, the key fractions for N mineralisation. Soils were sampled in an unbalanced nested design in a 4-ha arable field to examine the distribution of the variation of SOM at 30, 10, 1, and 0.12 m. Organic matter in free and intra-aggregate light fractions (FLF and IALF) was extracted by physical fractionation. The variation occurred entirely within 0.12 m for FLF and at 10 m for IALF. A subsequent sampling on a 5-m grid was undertaken to link the status of the SOM fractions to MinN, which showed uncorrelated spatial dependence. A uniform application of N fertiliser would be suitable in this case. The failure of SOM fractions to identify any spatial dependence of MinN suggests that other soil variables, or crop indicators, should be tested to see if they can identify different N supply areas within the field for a more efficient and environmentally friendly N management.