Location, location, location: development of spatiotemporal sequence learning in infancy

We investigated infants' sensitivity to spatiotemporal structure. In Experiment 1, circles appeared in a statistically defined spatial pattern. At test 11-month-olds, but not 8-month-olds, looked longer at a novel spatial sequence. Experiment 2 presented different color/shape stimuli, but only the location sequence was violated during test; 8-month-olds preferred the novel spatial structure, but 5-month-olds did not. In Experiment 3, the locations but not color/shape pairings were constant at test; 5-month-olds showed a novelty preference. Experiment 4 examined "online learning": We recorded eye movements of 8-month-olds watching a spatiotemporal sequence. Saccade latencies to predictable locations decreased. We argue that temporal order statistics involving informative spatial relations become available to infants during the first year after birth, assisted by multiple cues.

Lag-1 sparing in the attentional blink: benefits and costs of integrating two events into a single episode

When people monitor a visual stream of rapidly presented stimuli for two targets (T1 and T2), they often miss T2 if it falls into a time window of about half a second after T1 onset-the attentional blink. However, if T2 immediately follows T1, performance is often reported being as good as that at long lags-the so-called Lag-1 sparing effect. Two experiments investigated the mechanisms underlying this effect. Experiment 1 showed that, at Lag 1, requiring subjects to correctly report both identity and temporal order of targets produces relatively good performance on T2 but relatively bad performance on T1. Experiment 2 confirmed that subjects often confuse target order at short lags, especially if the two targets are equally easy to discriminate. Results suggest that, if two targets appear in close succession, they compete for attentional resources. If the two competitors are of unequal strength the stronger one is more likely to win and be reported at the expense of the other. If the two are equally strong, however, they will often be integrated into the same attentional episode and thus get both access to attentional resources. But this comes with a cost, as it eliminates information about the targets' temporal order.

The development of time-based prospective memory in childhood: the role of working memory updating

This large-scale study examined the development of time-based prospective memory (PM) across childhood and the roles that working memory updating and time monitoring play in driving age effects in PM performance. One hundred and ninety-seven children aged 5 to 14 years completed a time-based PM task where working memory updating load was manipulated within individuals using a dual task design. Results revealed age-related increases in PM performance across childhood. Working memory updating load had a negative impact on PM performance and monitoring behavior in older children, but this effect was smaller in younger children. Moreover, the frequency as well as the pattern of time monitoring predicted children’s PM performance. Our interpretation of these results is that processes involved in children’s PM may show a qualitative shift over development from simple, nonstrategic monitoring behavior to more strategic monitoring based on internal temporal models that rely specifically on working memory updating resources. We discuss this interpretation with regard to possible trade-off effects in younger children as well as alternative accounts.

A calibrated, non-invasive method for measuring the internal interface height field at high resolution in the rotating, two-layer annulus

We describe a remote sensing method for measuring the internal interface height field in a rotating, two-layer annulus laboratory experiment. The method is non-invasive, avoiding the possibility of an interaction between the flow and the measurement device. The height fields retrieved are accurate and highly resolved in both space and time. The technique is based on a flow visualization method developed by previous workers, and relies upon the optical rotation properties of the working liquids. The previous methods returned only qualitative interface maps, however. In the present study, a technique is developed for deriving quantitative maps by calibrating height against the colour fields registered by a camera which views the flow from above. We use a layer-wise torque balance analysis to determine the equilibrium interface height field analytically, in order to derive the calibration curves. With the current system, viewing an annulus of outer radius 125 mm and depth 250 mm from a distance of 2 m, the inferred height fields have horizontal, vertical and temporal resolutions of up to 0.2 mm, 1 mm and 0.04 s, respectively.

Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part II: Rockfall activity and talus deformation

During many lava dome-forming eruptions, persistent rockfalls and the concurrent development of a substantial talus apron around the foot of the dome are important aspects of the observed activity. An improved understanding of internal dome structure, including the shape and internal boundaries of the talus apron, is critical for determining when a lava dome is poised for a major collapse and how this collapse might ensue. We consider a period of lava dome growth at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 2005 to May 2006, during which a 100 × 106 m3 lava dome developed that culminated in a major dome-collapse event on 20 May 2006. We use an axi-symmetrical Finite Element Method model to simulate the growth and evolution of the lava dome, including the development of the talus apron. We first test the generic behaviour of this continuum model, which has core lava and carapace/talus components. Our model describes the generation rate of talus, including its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its post-generation deformation, which is important for an improved understanding of the internal configuration and structure of the dome. We then use our model to simulate the 2005 to 2006 Soufrière Hills dome growth using measured dome volumes and extrusion rates to drive the model and generate the evolving configuration of the dome core and carapace/talus domains. The evolution of the model is compared with the observed rockfall seismicity using event counts and seismic energy parameters, which are used here as a measure of rockfall intensity and hence a first-order proxy for volumes. The range of model-derived volume increments of talus aggraded to the talus slope per recorded rockfall event, approximately 3 × 103–13 × 103 m3 per rockfall, is high with respect to estimates based on observed events. From this, it is inferred that some of the volumetric growth of the talus apron (perhaps up to 60–70%) might have occurred in the form of aseismic deformation of the talus, forced by an internal, laterally spreading core. Talus apron growth by this mechanism has not previously been identified, and this suggests that the core, hosting hot gas-rich lava, could have a greater lateral extent than previously considered.

Maize yield and rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales in Southern Brazil

This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

Background: Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results: Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion: Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology.

Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales

Phytophthora ramorum is a damaging invasive plant pathogen and was first discovered in the UK in 2002. Spatial point analyses were applied to the occurrence of this disease in England and Wales during the period of 2003-2006 in order to assess its spatio-temporal spread. Out of the 4301 garden centres and nurseries (GCN) surveyed, there were 164, 105, 123 and 41 sites with P. ramorum in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Spatial analysis of the observed point patterns of GCN outbreaks suggested that these sites were significantly clumped within a radius of ca 60 km in 2003, but not in later years. Further analyses were conducted to determine the relationship of GCN outbreak sites over two consecutive years and thus to infer possible disease spread over time. This analysis suggested that disease spread among GCN sites was most likely to have occurred within a distance of 60 km for 2003-2004, but not for the later years. There were 35, 63, 81 and 58 sites with P. ramorum in the semi-natural environment (SNE). Analyses were carried out to assess whether infected GCN sites could act as an inoculum source of infected SNE plants or vice versa. In all years, there was a significant spatial closeness among GCN and SNE outbreak sites within a distance of 1 km. But a significant relationship over a longer distance (within 60 km) was only observed between cases in 2003 and 2004. These analyses suggest that statutory actions taken so far appear to have reduced the extent of long-distance spread of P. ramorum among garden centres and nurseries, but not the disease spread at a shorter distance between GCN and SNE sites.

Colour, contrast & perception: A design guidance for internal built environments

Conducts a study into how contrast could be established when using colours frequently used in everyday environments, and how different adjacent colours had to be in terms of chromaticity, saturation and/or hue in order for a difference to be discerned between them by fully sighted people and most visually impaired people. Location within a building where contrast would have the greatest benefits is considered. Relates the philosophy behind design procedures and decisions to meet the objectives.

Inverting recurrent neural networks for internal model control of nonlinear systems

In this paper, we show how a set of recently derived theoretical results for recurrent neural networks can be applied to the production of an internal model control system for a nonlinear plant. The results include determination of the relative order of a recurrent neural network and invertibility of such a network. A closed loop controller is produced without the need to retrain the neural network plant model. Stability of the closed-loop controller is also demonstrated.

A spatio-temporal structure-based approach to drought characterisation

Drought characterisation is an intrinsically spatio-temporal problem. A limitation of previous approaches to characterisation is that they discard much of the spatio-temporal information by reducing events to a lower-order subspace. To address this, an explicit 3-dimensional (longitude, latitude, time) structure-based method is described in which drought events are defined by a spatially and temporarily coherent set of points displaying standardised precipitation below a given threshold. Geometric methods can then be used to measure similarity between individual drought structures. Groupings of these similarities provide an alternative to traditional methods for extracting recurrent space-time signals from geophysical data. The explicit consideration of structure encourages the construction of summary statistics which relate to the event geometry. Example measures considered are the event volume, centroid, and aspect ratio. The utility of a 3-dimensional approach is demonstrated by application to the analysis of European droughts (15 °W to 35°E, and 35 °N to 70°N) for the period 1901–2006. Large-scale structure is found to be abundant with 75 events identified lasting for more than 3 months and spanning at least 0.5 × 106 km2. Near-complete dissimilarity is seen between the individual drought structures, and little or no regularity is found in the time evolution of even the most spatially similar drought events. The spatial distribution of the event centroids and the time evolution of the geographic cross-sectional areas strongly suggest that large area, sustained droughts result from the combination of multiple small area (∼106 km2) short duration (∼3 months) events. The small events are not found to occur independently in space. This leads to the hypothesis that local water feedbacks play an important role in the aggregation process.

TRCM: a methodology for temporal analysis of evolving concepts in Twitter

The Twitter network has been labelled the most commonly used microblogging application around today. With about 500 million estimated registered users as of June, 2012, Twitter has become a credible medium of sentiment/opinion expression. It is also a notable medium for information dissemination; including breaking news on diverse issues since it was launched in 2007. Many organisations, individuals and even government bodies follow activities on the network in order to obtain knowledge on how their audience reacts to tweets that affect them. We can use postings on Twitter (known as tweets) to analyse patterns associated with events by detecting the dynamics of the tweets. A common way of labelling a tweet is by including a number of hashtags that describe its contents. Association Rule Mining can find the likelihood of co-occurrence of hashtags. In this paper, we propose the use of temporal Association Rule Mining to detect rule dynamics, and consequently dynamics of tweets. We coined our methodology Transaction-based Rule Change Mining (TRCM). A number of patterns are identifiable in these rule dynamics including, new rules, emerging rules, unexpected rules and ?dead' rules. Also the linkage between the different types of rule dynamics is investigated experimentally in this paper.

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities worked together on ‘end-to-end’ uncertainty assessments of climate change and its impacts. Here, we use an experiment in peer review amongst project members to assess variation in the assessment of uncertainties between EQUIP researchers. We find overall agreement on key sources of uncertainty but a large variation in the assessment of the methods used for uncertainty assessment. Results show that communication aimed at specialists makes the methods used harder to assess. There is also evidence of individual bias, which is partially attributable to disciplinary backgrounds. However, varying views on the methods used to quantify uncertainty did not preclude consensus on the consequential results produced using those methods. Based on our analysis, we make recommendations for developing and presenting statements on climate and its impacts. These include the use of a common uncertainty reporting format in order to make assumptions clear; presentation of results in terms of processes and trade-offs rather than only numerical ranges; and reporting multiple assessments of uncertainty in order to elucidate a more complete picture of impacts and their uncertainties. This in turn implies research should be done by teams of people with a range of backgrounds and time for interaction and discussion, with fewer but more comprehensive outputs in which the range of opinions is recorded.

Freezing skeletal muscle tissue does not affect its decomposition in soil: Evidence from temporal changes in tissue mass, microbial activity and soil chemistry based on excised samples

The study of decaying organisms and death assemblages is referred to as forensic taphonomy, or more simply the study of graves. This field is dominated by the fields of entomology, anthropology and archaeology. Forensic taphonomy also includes the study of the ecology and chemistry of the burial environment. Studies in forensic taphonomy often require the use of analogues for human cadavers or their component parts. These might include animal cadavers or skeletal muscle tissue. However, sufficient supplies of cadavers or analogues may require periodic freezing of test material prior to experimental inhumation in the soil. This study was carried out to ascertain the effect of freezing on skeletal muscle tissue prior to inhumation and decomposition in a soil environment under controlled laboratory conditions. Changes in soil chemistry were also measured. In order to test the impact of freezing, skeletal muscle tissue (Sus scrofa) was frozen (−20 °C) or refrigerated (4 °C). Portions of skeletal muscle tissue (∼1.5 g) were interred in microcosms (72 mm diameter × 120 mm height) containing sieved (2 mm) soil (sand) adjusted to 50% water holding capacity. The experiment had three treatments: control with no skeletal muscle tissue, microcosms containing frozen skeletal muscle tissue and those containing refrigerated tissue. The microcosms were destructively harvested at sequential periods of 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 16, 23, 30 and 37 days after interment of skeletal muscle tissue. These harvests were replicated 6 times for each treatment. Microbial activity (carbon dioxide respiration) was monitored throughout the experiment. At harvest the skeletal muscle tissue was removed and the detritosphere soil was sampled for chemical analysis. Freezing was found to have no significant impact on decomposition or soil chemistry compared to unfrozen samples in the current study using skeletal muscle tissue. However, the interment of skeletal muscle tissue had a significant impact on the microbial activity (carbon dioxide respiration) and chemistry of the surrounding soil including: pH, electroconductivity, ammonium, nitrate, phosphate and potassium. This is the first laboratory controlled study to measure changes in inorganic chemistry in soil associated with the decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue in combination with microbial activity.