Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

Anticipatory engineering: anticipation in sensory-motor systems of human

In visual tracking experiments, distributions of the relative phase be-tween target and tracer showed positive relative phase indicating that the tracer precedes the target position. We found a mode transition from the reactive to anticipatory mode. The proposed integrated model provides a framework to understand the antici-patory behaviour of human, focusing on the integration of visual and soma-tosensory information. The time delays in visual processing and somatosensory feedback are explicitly treated in the simultaneous differential equations. The anticipatory behaviour observed in the visual tracking experiments can be ex-plained by the feedforward term of target velocity, internal dynamics, and time delay in somatosensory feedback.

A calibrated, non-invasive method for measuring the internal interface height field at high resolution in the rotating, two-layer annulus

We describe a remote sensing method for measuring the internal interface height field in a rotating, two-layer annulus laboratory experiment. The method is non-invasive, avoiding the possibility of an interaction between the flow and the measurement device. The height fields retrieved are accurate and highly resolved in both space and time. The technique is based on a flow visualization method developed by previous workers, and relies upon the optical rotation properties of the working liquids. The previous methods returned only qualitative interface maps, however. In the present study, a technique is developed for deriving quantitative maps by calibrating height against the colour fields registered by a camera which views the flow from above. We use a layer-wise torque balance analysis to determine the equilibrium interface height field analytically, in order to derive the calibration curves. With the current system, viewing an annulus of outer radius 125 mm and depth 250 mm from a distance of 2 m, the inferred height fields have horizontal, vertical and temporal resolutions of up to 0.2 mm, 1 mm and 0.04 s, respectively.

Ultrafast excited state dynamics controlling photochemical isomerization of N-methyl-4-[trans-2-(4-pyridyl)ethenyl]pyridinium coordinated to a {Re-1(CO)(3)(2,2 '-bipyridine)} chromophore

Two Multifunctional photoactive complexes [Re(Cl)(CO)(3)-(MeDpe(+))(2)](2+) and [Re(MeDpe(+))(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) (MeDpe(+) = N-methyl-4-[trans-2-(4-pyridyl)ethenyl]pyridinium, bpy = 2,2'-bipyridine) were synthesized. characterized. and their redox and photonic properties were investigated by cyclic voltammetry: ultraviolet-visible-infrared (UV/Vis/IR) spectroelectrochemistry, stationary UV/Vis and resonance Raman spectroscopy; photolysis; picosecond time-resolved absorption spectroscopy in the visible and infrared regions: and time-resolved resonance Raman spectroscopy. The first reduction step of either complex Occurs at about -1.1 V versus Fc/Fc(+) and is localized at MeDpe(+). Reduction alone does not induce a trans -> cis isomerization of MeDpe(+). [Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(MeDPe(+))(2)](2+) is photostable, while [Re(MeDpe(+))(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) and free MeDpe(+) isomerize under near-UV irradiation. The lowest excited state of [Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(MeDPe(+))(2)](2+) has been identified as the Re(Cl)(CO)(3) -> MeDpe(+) (MLCT)-M-3 (MLCT = metal-to-ligand charge transfer), decaying directly to the ground state with lifetimes of approximate to 42 (73%) and approximate to 430ps (27%). Optical excitation of [Re(MeDpe(+))(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) leads to population of Re(CO)(3) -> MeDpe(+) and Re(CO)(3) -> bpy (MLCT)-M-3 states, from which a MeDpe(+) localized intraligand 3 pi pi* excited state ((IL)-I-3) is populated with lifetimes of approximate to 0.6 and approximate to 10 ps, respectively. The 3IL state undergoes a approximate to 21 ps internal rotation, which eventually produces the cis isomer on a much longer timescale. The different excited-state behavior of the two complexes and the absence of thermodynamically favorable interligand electron transfer in excited [Re(MeDpe(+))(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) reflect the fine energetic balance between excited states of different orbital origin, which can be tuned by subtle Structural variations. The complex [Re(MeDpe+)(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) emerges as a prototypical, multifunctional species with complementary redox and photonic behavior.

A finite difference scheme for inviscid flows with non-eequilibrium chemistry and internal energy

A finite difference scheme is presented for the inviscid terms of the equations of compressible fluid dynamics with general non-equilibrium chemistry and internal energy.

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM

A common bias among global climate models (GCMs) is that they exhibit tropospheric southern annular mode (SAM) variability that is much too persistent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime. This is of concern for the ability to accurately predict future SH circulation changes, so it is important that it be understood and alleviated. In this two-part study, specifically targeted experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) are used to improve understanding of the enhanced summertime SAM persistence. Given the ubiquity of this bias among comprehensive GCMs, it is likely that the results will be relevant for other climate models. Here, in Part I, the influence of climatological circulation biases on SAM variability is assessed, with a particular focus on two common biases that could enhance summertime SAM persistence: the too-late breakdown of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex and the equatorward bias in the SH tropospheric midlatitude jet. Four simulations are used to investigate the role of each of these biases in CMAM. Nudging and bias correcting procedures are used to systematically remove zonal-mean stratospheric variability and/or remove climatological zonal wind biases. The SAM time-scale bias is not alleviated by improving either the timing of the stratospheric vortex breakdown or the climatological jet structure. Even in the absence of stratospheric variability and with an improved climatological circulation, the model time scales are biased long. This points toward a bias in internal tropospheric dynamics that is not caused by the tropospheric jet structure bias. The underlying cause of this is examined in more detail in Part II of this study.

A continuum anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics

We develop the essential ingredients of a new, continuum and anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics designed for eventual use in climate simulation. These ingredients are a constitutive law for sea-ice stress, relating stress to the material properties of sea ice and to internal variables describing the sea-ice state, and equations describing the evolution of these variables. The sea-ice cover is treated as a densely flawed two-dimensional continuum consisting of a uniform field of thick ice that is uniformly permeated with narrow linear regions of thinner ice called leads. Lead orientation, thickness and width distributions are described by second-rank tensor internal variables: the structure, thickness and width tensors, whose dynamics are governed by corresponding evolution equations accounting for processes such as new lead generation and rotation as the ice cover deforms. These evolution equations contain contractions of higher-order tensor expressions that require closures. We develop a sea-ice stress constitutive law that relates sea-ice stress to the structure tensor, thickness tensor and strain rate. For the special case of empty leads (containing no ice), linear closures are adopted and we present calculations for simple shear, convergence and divergence.

Bond-selective energy redistribution in the chemisorption of CH3D and CD3H on Pt{1 1 0}-(1 2): a first-principles molecular dynamics study

We have investigated the chemisorption of CH3D and CD3H on Pt{11 0}-(1 2) by performing first-principles molecular dynamics simulations of the recombinative desorption of CH3D (from adsorbed methyl and deuterium) and of CD3H (from adsorbed trideuteromethyl and hydrogen). Vibrational analysis of the symmetry adapted internal coordinates of the desorbing molecules shows that excitation of the single C– D (C–H) bond in the parent molecule is strongly correlated with energy excess in the reaction coordinate. The results of the molecular dynamics simulations are consistent with observed mode- and bond-specific reactivity measurements for chemisorption of methane and its isotopomers on platinum and nickel surfaces.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.