Robustness of mutual information to inter-subject variability for automatic artefact removal from EEG

The externally recorded electroencephalogram (EEG) is contaminated with signals that do not originate from the brain, collectively known as artefacts. Thus, EEG signals must be cleaned prior to any further analysis. In particular, if the EEG is to be used in online applications such as Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) the removal of artefacts must be performed in an automatic manner. This paper investigates the robustness of Mutual Information based features to inter-subject variability for use in an automatic artefact removal system. The system is based on the separation of EEG recordings into independent components using a temporal ICA method, RADICAL, and the utilisation of a Support Vector Machine for classification of the components into EEG and artefact signals. High accuracy and robustness to inter-subject variability is achieved.

Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability

The consistency of precipitation variability estimated from the multiple satellite-based observing systems is assessed. There is generally good agreement between TRMM TMI, SSM/I, GPCP and AMSRE datasets for the inter-annual variability of precipitation since 1997 but the HOAPS dataset appears to overestimate the magnitude of variability. Over the tropical ocean the TRMM 3B42 dataset produces unrealistic variabilitys. Based upon deseasonalised GPCP data for the period 1998-2008, the sensitivity of global mean precipitation (P) to surface temperature (T) changes (dP/dT) is about 6%/K, although a smaller sensitivity of 3.6%/K is found using monthly GPCP data over the longer period 1989-2008. Over the tropical oceans dP/dT ranges from 10-30%/K depending upon time-period and dataset while over tropical land dP/dT is -8 to -11%/K for the 1998-2008 period. Analyzing the response of the tropical ocean precipitation intensity distribution to changes in T we find the wetter area P shows a strong positive response to T of around 20%/K. The response over the drier tropical regimes is less coherent and varies with datasets, but responses over the tropical land show significant negative relationships over an interannual time-scale. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the datasets strongly influence the precipitation responses over the tropical oceans and help explain some of the discrepancy between different datasets. Consistency between datasets is found to increase on averaging from daily to 5-day time-scales and considering a 1o (or coarser) spatial resolution. Defining the wet and dry tropical ocean regime by the 60th percentile of P intensity, the 5-day average, 1o TMI data exhibits a coherent drying of the dry regime at the rate of -20%/K and the wet regime becomes wetter at a similar rate with warming.

Pharmacometabonomic characterization of xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic phenotypes that account for inter-individual variation in isoniazid-induced toxicological response

An NMR-based pharmacometabonomic approach was applied to investigate inter-animal variation in response to isoniazid (INH; 200 and 400 mg/kg) in male Sprague-Dawley rats, alongside complementary clinical chemistry and histopathological analysis. Marked inter-animal variability in central nervous system (CNS) toxicity was identified following administration of a high dose of INH, which enabled characterization of CNS responders and CNS non-responders. High-resolution post-dose urinary (1)H NMR spectra were modeled both by their xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic information sets, enabling simultaneous identification of the differential metabolic fate of INH and its associated endogenous metabolic consequences in CNS responders and CNS non-responders. A characteristic xenobiotic metabolic profile was observed for CNS responders, which revealed higher urinary levels of pyruvate isonicotinylhydrazone and β-glucosyl isonicotinylhydrazide and lower levels of acetylisoniazid compared to CNS non-responders. This suggested that the capacity for acetylation of INH was lower in CNS responders, leading to increased metabolism via conjugation with pyruvate and glucose. In addition, the endogenous metabolic profile of CNS responders revealed higher urinary levels of lactate and glucose, in comparison to CNS non-responders. Pharmacometabonomic analysis of the pre-dose (1)H NMR urinary spectra identified a metabolic signature that correlated with the development of INH-induced adverse CNS effects and may represent a means of predicting adverse events and acetylation capacity when challenged with high dose INH. Given the widespread use of INH for the treatment of tuberculosis, this pharmacometabonomic screening approach may have translational potential for patient stratification to minimize adverse events.

Variability and trends in stratospheric NO2 in Antarctic summer, and implications for stratospheric NOy

NO2 measurements during 1990–2007, obtained from a zenith-sky spectrometer in the Antarctic, are analysed to determine the long-term changes in NO2. An atmospheric photochemical box model and a radiative transfer model are used to improve the accuracy of determination of the vertical columns from the slant column measurements, and to deduce the amount of NOy from NO2. We find that the NO2 and NOy columns in midsummer have large inter-annual variability superimposed on a broad maximum in 2000, with little or no overall trend over the full time period. These changes are robust to a variety of alternative settings when determining vertical columns from slant columns or determining NOy from NO2. They may signify similar changes in speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation but with opposite sign, i.e. a broad minimum around 2000. Multiple regressions show significant correlation with solar and quasi-biennial-oscillation indices, and weak correlation with El Nino, but no significant overall trend, corresponding to an increase in Brewer-Dobson circulation of 1.4±3.5%/decade. There remains an unexplained cycle of amplitude and period at least 15% and 17 years, with minimum speed in about 2000.

Latitudinal gradients in butterfly population variability are influenced by landscape heterogeneity

The variability of populations over time is positively associated with their risk of local extinction. Previous work has shown that populations at the high-latitude boundary of species’ ranges show higher inter-annual variability, consistent with increased sensitivity and exposure to adverse climatic conditions. However, patterns of population variability at both high- and low-latitude species range boundaries have not yet been concurrently examined. Here, we assess the inter-annual population variability of 28 butterfly species between 1994 and 2009 at 351 and 18 sites in the United Kingdom and Catalonia, Spain, respectively. Local population variability is examined with respect to the position of the species’ bioclimatic envelopes (i.e. whether the population falls within areas of the ‘core’ climatic suitability or is a climatically ‘marginal’ population), and in relation to local landscape heterogeneity, which may influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. We found that butterfly species consistently show latitudinal gradients in population variability, with increased variability in the more northerly UK. This pattern is even more marked for southerly distributed species with ‘marginal’ climatic suitability in the UK but ‘core’ climatic suitability in Catalonia. In addition, local landscape heterogeneity did influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. Habitat heterogeneity was associated with dampened population dynamics, especially for populations in the UK. Our results suggest that promoting habitat heterogeneity may promote the persistence of populations at high-latitude range boundaries, which may potentially aid northwards expansion under climate warming. We did not find evidence that population variability increases towards southern range boundaries. Sample sizes for this region were low, but there was tentative evidence, in line with previous ecological theory, that local landscape heterogeneity may promote persistence in these retracting low-latitude range boundary populations.

On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

Isolating the signal of ocean global warming

Identifying the signature of global warming in the world's oceans is challenging because low frequency circulation changes can dominate local temperature changes. The IPCC fourth assessment reported an average ocean heating rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 Wm−2 over the period 1961–2003, with considerable spatial, interannual and inter-decadal variability. We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of the underlying warming. Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14°C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm−2 on average) than previous results. This new measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources of error in the ocean observing system. Our new analysis provides a useful addition for evaluation of coupled climate models, to the traditional fixed depth analyses.

Granulometric characterization and evaluation of annually banded mid-Holocene estuarine silts, Welsh Severn Estuary (UK): coastal change, sea level and climate

Holocene silts (salt marshes) and highest intertidal-supratidal peats are superbly exposed on a 15 kin coastal transect which reveals two laterally extensive units of annually banded silts (Beds 3, 7) associated with three transgressive-regressive silt-peat cycles (early sixth-early fourth millennium BC). Bed 3 in places is concordantly and gradationally related to peats above and below, but in others transgresses older strata. Bed 7 also grades up into peat, but everywhere overlies a discordance. The banding in Bed 3 at three main and two minor sites was resolved and characterized texturally at high-resolution (2.5/5 mm contiguous slices) using laser granulometry (LS230 with PIDS) and a comprehensive scheme of data-assessment. Most of Bed 3 formed very rapidly, at peak values of several tens of millimetres annually, in accordance with modelled effects of sea-level fluctuations on mature marshes (bed concordant and gradational) and on marshes growing up after coastal erosion and retreat (bed with discordant base). Using data from the modern Severn Estuary, the textural contrast within bands, and its variation between bands, points to a variable but overall milder mid-Holocene climate than today. The inter-annual variability affected marsh dynamics, as shown by the behaviour of the finely divided plant tissues present. Given local calibration, the methodology is applicable to other tidal systems with banded silts in Britain and mainland northwest Europe. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal scale issues in determining biomass burning regimes in Bolivia and Peru

ATSR-2 active fire data from 1996 to 2000, TRMM VIRS fire counts from 1998 to 2000 and burn scars derived from SPOT VEGETATION ( the Global Burnt Area 2000 product) were mapped for Peru and Bolivia to analyse the spatial distribution of burning and its intra- and inter-annual variability. The fire season in the region mainly occurs between May and October; though some variation was found between the six broad habitat types analysed: desert, grassland, savanna, dry forest, moist forest and yungas (the forested valleys on the eastern slope of the Andes). Increased levels of burning were generally recorded in ATSR-2 and TRMM VIRS fire data in response to the 1997/1998 El Nino, but in some areas the El Nino effect was masked by the more marked influences of socio-economic change on land use and land cover. There were differences between the three global datasets: ATSR-2 under-recorded fires in ecosystems with low net primary productivities. This was because fires are set during the day in this region and, when fuel loads are low, burn out before the ATSR-2 overpass in the region which is between 02.45 h and 03.30 h. TRMM VIRS was able to detect these fires because its overpasses cover the entire diurnal range on a monthly basis. The GBA2000 product has significant errors of commission (particularly areas of shadow in the well-dissected eastern Andes) and omission (in the agricultural zone around Santa Cruz, Bolivia and in north-west Peru). Particular attention was paid to biomass burning in high-altitude grasslands, where fire is an important pastoral management technique. Fires and burn scars from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) data for a range of years between 1987 and 2000 were mapped for areas around Parque Nacional Rio Abiseo (Peru) and Parque Nacional Carrasco (Bolivia). Burn scars mapped in the grasslands of these two areas indicate far more burning had taken place than either the fires or the burn scars derived from global datasets. Mean scar sizes are smaller and have a smaller range in size between years the in the study area in Peru (6.6-7.1 ha) than Bolivia (16.9-162.5 ha). Trends in biomass burning in the two highland areas can be explained in terms of the changing socio-economic environments and impacts of conservation. The mismatch between the spatial scale of biomass burning in the high-altitude grasslands and the sensors used to derive global fire products means that an entire component of the fire regime in the region studied is omitted, despite its importance in the farming systems on the Andes.

Characterization of the 23S and 5S rRNA genes and 23S-5S intergenic spacer region (ITS-2) of Photobacterium damselae

The 23S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene has been sequenced in strains of the fish pathogens Photobacterium damselae subsp. damselae (ATCC 33539) and subsp. piscicida (ATCC 29690), showing that 3 nucleotide positions are clearly different between subspecies. In addition, the 5S rRNA gene plus the intergenic spacer region between the 23S and 5S rRNA genes (ITS-2) were amplified, cloned and sequenced for the 2 reference strains as well as the field isolates RG91 (subsp. damselae) and DI21 (subsp. piscicida). A 100% similarity was found for the consensus 5S rRNA gene sequence in the 2 subspecies, although some microheterogeneity was detected as inter-cistronic variability within the same chromosome. Sequence analysis of the spacer region between the 23S and 5S rRNA genes revealed 2 conserved and 3 variable nucleotide sequence blocks, and 4 different modular organizations were found. The ITS-2 spacer region exhibited both inter-subspecies and inter-cistronic polymorphism, with a mosaic-like structure. The EMBL accession numbers for the 23S, 5S and ITS-2 sequences are: P. damselae subsp. piscicida 5S gene (AJ274379), P. damselae subsp. damselae 23S gene (Y18520), subsp. piscicida 23S gene (Y17901), R damselae subsp. piscicida ITS-2 (AJ250695, AJ250696), P. damselae subsp. damselae ITS-2 (AJ250697, AJ250698).

Introduction to the DISRUPT postprandial database: subjects, studies and methodologies

Dysregulation of lipid and glucose metabolism in the postprandial state are recognised as important risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Our objective was to create a comprehensive, standardised database of postprandial studies to provide insights into the physiological factors that influence postprandial lipid and glucose responses. Data were collated from subjects (n = 467) taking part in single and sequential meal postprandial studies conducted by researchers at the University of Reading, to form the DISRUPT (DIetary Studies: Reading Unilever Postprandial Trials) database. Subject attributes including age, gender, genotype, menopausal status, body mass index, blood pressure and a fasting biochemical profile, together with postprandial measurements of triacylglycerol (TAG), non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, insulin and TAG-rich lipoprotein composition are recorded. A particular strength of the studies is the frequency of blood sampling, with on average 10-13 blood samples taken during each postprandial assessment, and the fact that identical test meal protocols were used in a number of studies, allowing pooling of data to increase statistical power. The DISRUPT database is the most comprehensive postprandial metabolism database that exists worldwide and preliminary analysis of the pooled sequential meal postprandial dataset has revealed both confirmatory and novel observations with respect to the impact of gender and age on the postprandial TAG response. Further analysis of the dataset using conventional statistical techniques along with integrated mathematical models and clustering analysis will provide a unique opportunity to greatly expand current knowledge of the aetiology of inter-individual variability in postprandial lipid and glucose responses.

The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed.

The role of monounsaturated fatty acids in the mitigation of insulin resistance

With the rising rate of obesity, there is considerable interest in dietary strategies to reduce insulin resistance, a major characteristic of the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. Diets rich in monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) have been suggested as an alternative to low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets to improve glycemic control. However, inconsistent effects have been observed with MUFA-rich diets in both healthy and insulin-resistant individuals. In studies that have reported favorable effects on insulin sensitivity, Mediterranean-style diets have been used that are rich not only in MUFA but also whole-grain foods, fiber, and carbohydrates with a low glycemic index. There is a need for intervention studies to examine the true impact of MUFA-rich oils on glycemic control in both Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean populations. In addition, the metabolic and genotypic status of the participants may also play a role in the inter-individual variability in insulin sensitivity in response to MUFA-rich diets.

A double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover-designed probiotic feeding study in children diagnosed with autistic spectrum disorders

There is growing interest in the role of gastrointestinal (GI) pathology and clinical expression of autism. Recent studies have demonstrated differences in the faecal clostridial populations harboured by autistic and non-autistic children. The potential of Lactobacillus plantarum WCSF1 (a probiotic) to modulate the gut microbiota of autistic subjects was investigated during a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover-designed feeding study. The faecal microbiota, gut function and behaviour scores of subjects were examined throughout the 12-week study. Lactobacillus plantarum WCFS1 feeding significantly increased Lab158 counts (lactobacilli and enterococci group) and significantly reduced Erec482 counts (Clostridium cluster XIVa) compared to placebo. Probiotic feeding also resulted in significant differences in the stool consistency compared to placebo and behaviour scores (total score and scores for some subscales) compared to baseline. The major finding of this work was the importance of study protocol in relation to the specific considerations of this subject population, with an extremely high dropout rate seen (predominantly during the baseline period). Furthermore, the relatively high inter-individual variability observed suggests that subsequent studies should use defined subgroups of autistic spectrum disorders, such as regressive or late-onset autism. In summary, the current study has highlighted the potential benefit of L. plantarum WCFS1 probiotic feeding in autistic individuals.