Risks, costs and labour markets: explaining cross-national patterns of far right party success in European Parliament elections

What is the impact of the economy on cross national variation in far right-wing party support? This paper tests several hypotheses from existing literature on the results of the last three EP elections in all EU member states. We conceptualise the economy affects support because unemployment heightens the risks and costs that the population faces, but this is crucially mediated by labour market institutions. Findings from multiple regression analyses indicate that unemployment, real GDP growth, debt and deficits have no statistically significant effect on far right-wing party support at the national level. By contrast, labour markets influence costs and risks: where unemployment benefits and dismissal regulations are high, unemployment has no effect, but where either one of them is low, unemployment leads to higher far right-wing party support. This explains why unemployment has not led to far right-wing party support in some European countries that experienced the 2008 Eurozone crisis.

The economic viability and potential of a novel poultry agroforestry system

Investigating agroforestry systems that incorporate poultry is warranted in Northern Europe as they may offer benefits including: improved welfare and use of range; reduced feed costs; price premia on products; reduced payback periods for forests; and, greater returns on investment. Free-range egg production accounts for 27% of the United Kingdom egg market and demand for outdoor broilers is increasing. No research has been conducted recently on the economic viability of agroforestry systems with poultry. An economic model was constructed to: assess economic viability of a broiler agroforestry system; and, investigate the sensitivity of economic performance to key factors and interactions, and identify those which warrant attention in research and management. The system modelled is a commercial trial established in Southern England in 2002 where deciduous trees were planted and broilers reared in six- or nine-week periods. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation and financial performance analyses run for a 120-year period. An Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 15.5% is predicted for the six-week system which remains viable under a 'worst case' scenario (IRR of 12.6%). Factors which affect financial performance most (decreasing in magnitude) are prices achieved for broilers, costs of brooding houses, chicks, arks, feed and timber prices. The main anticipated effects of biological interactions on financial performance (increased ranging on feed conversion and excess nutrient supply on tree health) were not supported by analysis. Further research is particularly warranted on the welfare benefits offered by the tree component and its relation to price premia.

The omega equation and potential vorticity

Two fundamental perspectives on the dynamics of midlatitude weather systems are provided by potential vorticity (PV) and the omega equation. The aim of this paper is to investigate the link between the two perspectives, which has so far received very little attention in the meteorological literature. It also aims to give a quantitative basis for discussion of quasi-geostrophic vertical motion in terms of components associated with system movement, maintaining a constant thermal structure, and with the development of that structure. The former links with the isentropic relative-flow analysis technique. Viewed in a moving frame of reference, the measured development of a system depends on the velocity of that frame of reference. The requirement that the development should be a minimum provides a quantitative method for determining the optimum system velocity. The component of vertical velocity associated with development is shown to satisfy an omega equation with forcing determined from the relative advection of interior PV and boundary temperature. The analysis carries through in the presence of diabatic heating provided the omega equation forcing is based on the interior PV and boundary thermal tendencies, including the heating effect. The analysis is shown to be possible also at the level of the semi-geostrophic approximation. The analysis technique is applied to a number of idealized problems that can be considered to be building blocks for midlatitude synoptic-scale dynamics. They focus on the influences of interior PV, boundary temperature, an interior boundary, baroclinic instability associated with two boundaries, and also diabatic heating. In each case, insights yielded by the new perspective are sought into the dynamical behaviour, especially that related to vertical motion. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

A comparison of the variability of biological nutrients against depth and potential density.

The main biogeochemical nutrient distributions, along with ambient ocean temperature and the light field, control ocean biological productivity. Observations of nutrients are much sparser than physical observations of temperature and salinity, yet it is critical to validate biogeochemical models against these sparse observations if we are to successfully model biological variability and trends. Here we use data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the World Ocean Database 2005 to demonstrate quantitatively that over the entire globe a significant fraction of the temporal variability of phosphate, silicate and nitrate within the oceans is correlated with water density. The temporal variability of these nutrients as a function of depth is almost always greater than as a function of potential density, with he largest reductions in variability found within the main pycnocline. The greater nutrient variability as a function of depth occurs when dynamical processes vertically displace nutrient and density fields together on shorter timescales than biological adjustments. These results show that dynamical processes can have a significant impact on the instantaneous nutrient distributions. These processes must therefore be considered when modeling biogeochemical systems, when comparing such models with observations, or when assimilating data into such models.

The costs and benefits of digital dermatitis control on UK dairy farms

Digital dermatitis is a significant problem in UK dairy herds and the cost to farmers has not yet been fully quantified. Under the current farm health planning initiative there is a need to demonstrate to farmers the costs and benefits of disease control. This paper presents the first attempt to quantify the costs and benefits of digital dermatitis control on UK dairy farms through the use of an interactive model.

The phenology and potential for self-pollination of two Australian monoecious fig species

In this preliminary study, the reproductive phenology of two monoecious fig species, Ficus racemosa and F. rubiginosa, was examined in tropical Australia. Syconia (inflorescences) occurred on both species all year round, but pre-floral and interfloral syconia were much commoner than the wasp-receptive and wasp-emitting phases in both species. The temporal overlap of the wasp-receptive and wasp-emitting phases on a single tree indicated that self-pollination was possible in both species and that pollinators may sometimes persist through multiple generations on one tree. This sexual phase overlap was commoner in F. rubiginosa than in F racemosa. The two species also differed in their general within-tree asynchrony, with a higher diversity of phases on F. rubiginosa than on F. racemosa. The time from syconium initiation to ripening was very similar in F. rubiginosa (mean = 48.51 days) and F. racemosa (mean = 43.53 days). However, there was much more variation within and between trees for F. rubiginosa. In addition, the wasp-receptive phase was found to last up to 5 days (rnean = 4.38) in F. rubiginosa. Such longevity should contribute substantially to local pollinator population persistence. Future work should use genetic studies to determine whether self-pollination is common in these fig species.

The costs and consequences of parasitoid attack for the predatory hoverfly, Episyrphus balteatus

Question: What are the life-history costs for a predatory insect of surviving parasitoid attack, and can parasitoid attack alter predator-prey interactions? Hypotheses: Survivorship is influenced by host age. Hosts that suffer parasitoid attack grow more slowly and consume fewer prey. Those that survive attack are smaller as adults and show reduced survivorship. Organisms: The aphidophagous hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus, its endoparasitoid wasp Diplazon laetatorius and its prey, the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. Site of experiments: All experiments were conducted in controlled temperature rooms and chambers in the laboratory. Methods: Episyrphus balteatus larvae of each instar were exposed to attack by Diplazon laetatorius, then dissected to measure the encapsulation response (a measure of immunity). Second instar larvae were either attacked or not attacked by D. laetatorius. Their development rates and numbers of prey consumed were noted. The size and survivorship of surviving (immune) and control hoverflies were compared following eclosion. Conclusions: Successful immune response increased with larval age (first instar 0%, second instar 40%, third instar 100% survival). Second instar larvae that successfully resisted parasitoid attack were larger as pupae (but not as adults) and showed reduced adult survivorship. Female adult survivors were more likely than male survivors to have died within 16 days of eclosion, but there was no difference between unattacked male and female control hoverflies. Attacked larvae, irrespective of immune status, consumed fewer aphids than unattacked individuals. Episyrphus balteatus suffers significant costs of resisting parasitoid attack, and parasitoid attack can reduce the top-down effects of an insect predator, irrespective of whether the host mounts an immune response or not.

Gas phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reactions of silylene with the methylsilanes. Absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, RRKM modelling and potential energy surfaces

Time resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, generated by the 193 nm laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for its bimolecular reactions with methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-silanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 3 - 100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 300 - 625 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for SiH2 + MeSiH3 ( 485 and 602 K) and for SiH2 + Me2SiH2 ( 600 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: [GRAPHICS] These are consistent with fast, near to collision-controlled, association processes. RRKM modelling calculations are consistent with the observed pressure dependences ( and also the lack of them for SiH2 + Me3SiH). Ab initio calculations at both second order perturbation theory (MP2) and coupled cluster (CCSD(T)) levels, showed the presence of weakly-bound complexes along the reaction pathways. In the case of SiH2 + MeSiH3 two complexes, with different geometries, were obtained consistent with earlier studies of SiH2 + SiH4. These complexes were stabilised by methyl substitution in the substrate silane, but all had exceedingly low barriers to rearrangement to product disilanes. Although methyl groups in the substrate silane enhance the intrinsic SiH2 insertion rates, it is doubtful whether the intermediate complexes have a significant effect on the kinetics. A further calculation on the reaction MeSiH + SiH4 shows that the methyl substitution in the silylene should have a much more significant kinetic effect ( as observed in other studies).

Adapting the homes of older people: A case study of costs and savings

Meeting the demand for independent living from the increasing number of older people presents a major challenge for society, government and the building industry. Older people's experience of disabling conditions can be affected by the design and layout of their accommodation. Adaptations and assistive technology (AT) are a major way of addressing this gap between functional capacity and the built environment. The degree of adaptability and the differences in the average cost of adaptation of different types of property are large and there is major variation within property type. Based on a series of user profiles, it was found that a comprehensive package of adaptations and AT is likely to result in significant economies arising from a reduction in the need for formal care services. This finding is sensitive to assumptions about how long an individual would use the adaptations and AT, as well as to the input of informal care and the nature of their accommodation. The present study, which focused on social housing, has implications for how practitioners specify ways of meeting individual needs as well as providing a case to support the substantial increase in demand for specialist adaptation work.

Introducing assistive technology into the existing homes of older people: Feasibility, acceptability, costs and outcomes

We examined how far, and at what cost, the housing stock could be modified to accommodate the assistive technology (AT) necessary to enable older people to remain in their own homes. A multidisciplinary team devised seven hypothetical user profiles for 10 case study areas, with five local authorities and five housing associations in England and Wales. Each profile was considered at two times, five years apart, with the users' functional abilities deteriorating in between. In addition, in-depth interviews were carried out with a sample of 67 older people in the case study areas about their use and experience of a wide range of AT. The interviews showed the need to listen to older people and that they welcomed AT when it addressed a perceived need. The results showed that the extent of adaptation required of buildings to accommodate a user's needs varied greatly. It was also found that there was confusion about the terminology of AT, including the idea of the 'smart house'. The study shows that the adaptability of the housing depends on a range of factors and costs.

Exploring costs and benefits of HACCP: a pilot study in the dairy and meat products industry in the European Union

Since 1995 the Directive 93/43/EEC prescribes the application of HACCP principles in food production. However, despite the major importance of food safety, there is a fundamental lack of information on the economic impact of this directive. This project aims to study costs and benefits of HACCP, including the impact of HACCP on public health. Due to the complexity of the issue, we propose to start with a pilot study, limited to dairy and meat products industry in NL, UK and I. Information will be obtained at two levels: production chain and public health. Integration of these results will result in recommendations at the levels of EU member states and industry for regulation and supporting measures, and in recommendations for an effective and efficient approach for a more comprehensive project on costs and benefits of HACCP, covering major parts of the food industry in EU member states.

Modulation of the microbial ecology of the human colon by probiotics, prebiotics and synbiotics to enhance human health: an overview of enabling science and potential applications

The application of probiotics and prebiotics to the manipulation of the microbial ecology of the human colon has recently seen many scientific advances. The sequencing of probiotic genomes is providing a wealth of new information on the biology of these microorganisms. In addition, we are learning more about the interactions of probiotics with human cells and with pathogenic bacteria. An alternative means of modulating the colonic microbial community is by the use of prebiotic oligosaccharides. Increasing knowledge of the metabolism of prebiotics by probiotics is allowing us to consider specifically targeting such dietary intervention tools at specific populatiori groups and specific disease states. (c) 2005 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vitro evaluation of the fermentation properties and potential prebiotic activity of Agave fructans

Aims: This study was carried out to evaluate in vitro the fermentation properties and the potential prebiotic activity of Agave-fructans extracted from Agave tequilana (Predilife). Methods and Results: Five different commercial prebiotics were compared using 24-h pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures inoculated with human faecal slurries. Measurement of prebiotic efficacy was obtained by comparing bacterial changes, and the production of short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) was also determined. Effects upon major groups of the microbiota were monitored over 24 h incubations by fluorescence in situ hybridization. SCFA were measured by HPLC. Fermentation of the Agave fructans (Predilife) resulted in a large increase in numbers of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli. Conclusions: Under the in vitro conditions used, this study has shown the differential impact of Predilife on the microbial ecology of the human gut. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first study reporting of a potential prebiotic mode of activity for Agave fructans investigated which significantly increased populations of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli compared to cellulose used as a control.