Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Mutations in H5N1 influenza virus hemagglutinin that confer binding to human tracheal airway epithelium

The emergence in 2009 of a swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus as the first pandemic of the 21st Century is a timely reminder of the international public health impact of influenza viruses, even those associated with mild disease. The widespread distribution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in the avian population has spawned concern that it may give rise to a human influenza pandemic. The mortality rate associated with occasional human infection by H5N1 virus approximates 60%, suggesting that an H5N1 pandemic would be devastating to global health and economy. To date, the H5N1 virus has not acquired the propensity to transmit efficiently between humans. The reasons behind this are unclear, especially given the high mutation rate associated with influenza virus replication. Here we used a panel of recombinant H5 hemagglutinin (HA) variants to demonstrate the potential for H5 HA to bind human airway epithelium, the predominant target tissue for influenza virus infection and spread. While parental H5 HA exhibited limited binding to human tracheal epithelium, introduction of selected mutations converted the binding profile to that of a current human influenza strain HA. Strikingly, these amino-acid changes required multiple simultaneous mutations in the genomes of naturally occurring H5 isolates. Moreover, H5 HAs bearing intermediate sequences failed to bind airway tissues and likely represent mutations that are an evolutionary "dead end." We conclude that, although genetic changes that adapt H5 to human airways can be demonstrated, they may not readily arise during natural virus replication. This genetic barrier limits the likelihood that current H5 viruses will originate a human pandemic.

Probing the receptor interactions ofan H5 avian influenza virus using a baculovirus expression system and functionalised poly(acrylic acid) ligands

Influenza viruses attach to host cells by binding to terminal sialic acid (Neu5Ac) on glycoproteins or glycolipids. Both the linkage of Neu5Ac and the identity of other carbohydrates within the oligosaccharide are thought to play roles in restricting the host range of the virus. In this study, the receptor specificity of an H5 avian influenza virus haemagglutinin protein that has recently infected man (influenza strain A/Vietnam/1194/04) has been probed using carbohydrate functionalised poly(acrylic acid) polymers. A baculovirus expression system that allows facile and safe analysis of the Neu5Ac binding specificity of mutants of H5 HA engineered at sites that are predicted to effect a switch in host range has also been developed. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NS1 proteins of avian influenza A viruses can act as antagonists of the human alpha/beta interferon response

Many viruses, including human influenza A virus, have developed strategies for counteracting the host type I interferon (IFN) response. We have explored whether avian influenza viruses were less capable of combating the type I IFN response in mammalian cells, as this might be a determinant of host range restriction. A panel of avian influenza viruses isolated between 1927 and 1997 was assembled. The selected viruses showed variation in their ability to activate the expression of a reporter gene under the control of the IFN-beta promoter and in the levels of IFN induced in mammalian cells. Surprisingly, the avian NS1 proteins expressed alone or in the genetic background of a human influenza virus controlled IFN-beta induction in a manner similar to the NS1 protein of human strains. There was no direct correlation between the IFN-beta induction and replication of avian influenza viruses in human A549 cells. Nevertheless, human cells deficient in the type I IFN system showed enhanced replication of the avian viruses studied, implying that the human type I IFN response limits avian influenza viruses and can contribute to host range restriction.

Development of a reverse genetics system enabling the rescue of recombinant avian influenza virus A/Turkey/England/50-92/91 (H5N1)

We previously described the use of an established reverse genetics system for the generation of recombinant human influenza A viruses from cloned cDNAs. Here, we have assembled a set of plasmids to allow recovery of the avian H5N1 influenza virus A/Turkey/England/50-92/91 entirely from cDNA. This system enables us to introduce mutations or truncations into the cDNAs to create mutant viruses altered specifically in a chosen gene. These mutant viruses can then be used in future pathogenesis studies in chickens and in studies to understand the host range restrictions of avian influenza viruses in humans.

Alterations in receptor binding properties of recent human influenza H3N2 viruses are associated with reduced natural killer cell lysis of infected cells

Natural killer (NK) cell recognition of influenza virus-infected cells involves hemagglutinin (HA) binding to sialic acid (SA) on activating NK receptors. SA also acts as a receptor for the binding of influenza virus to its target host cells. The SA binding properties of H3N2 influenza viruses have been observed to change during circulation in humans: recent isolates are unable to agglutinate chicken red blood cells and show reduced affinity for synthetic glycopolymers representing SA-alpha-2,3-lactose (3'SL-PAA) and SA-alpha-2,6-N-acetyl lactosamine (6'SLN-PAA) carbohydrates. Here, NK lysis of cells infected with human H3N2 influenza viruses isolated between 1969 and 2003 was analyzed. Cells infected with recent isolates (1999 to 2003) were found to be lysed less effectively than cells infected with older isolates (1969 to 1996). This change occurred concurrently with the acquisition of two new potential glycosylation site motifs in RA. Deletion of the potential glycosylation site motif at 133 to 135 in HA1 from a recent isolate partially restored the agglutination phenotype to a recombinant virus, indicating that the HA-SA interaction is inhibited by the glycosylation modification. Deletion of either of the recently acquired potential glycosylation sites from HA led to increased NK lysis of cells infected with recombinant viruses carrying modified HA. These results indicate that alterations in RA glycosylation may affect NK cell recognition of influenza virus-infected cells in addition to virus binding to host cells.

Short report: human metapneumovirus in children with influenza-like illness in Yucatan, Mexico

The present study suggests that human metapneumovirus (hMPV) is an important cause of community acquired respiratory infections in children. We report the detection of hMPV in a pediatric population with influenza-like illness in the subtropical area of Yucatan in Mexico. Our data also shows that hMPV circulates in the community with other respiratory pathogens.

Generation of candidate human influenza vaccine strains in cell culture: rehearsing the European response to an H7N1 pandemic threat

Background: Although H5N1 avian influenza viruses pose the most obvious imminent pandemic threat, there have been several recent zoonotic incidents involving transmission of H7 viruses to humans. Vaccines are the primary public health defense against pandemics, but reliance on embryonated chickens eggs to propagate vaccine and logistic problems posed by the use of new technology may slow our ability to respond rapidly in a pandemic situation. Objectives: We sought to generate an H7 candidate vaccine virus suitable for administration to humans whose generation and amplification avoided the use of eggs. Methods: We generated a suitable H7 vaccine virus by reverse genetics. This virus, known as RD3, comprises the internal genes of A/Puerto Rico/8/34 with surface antigens of the highly pathogenic avian strain A/Chicken/Italy/13474/99 (H7N1). The multi-basic amino acid site in the HA gene, associated with high pathogenicity in chickens, was removed. Results: The HA modification did not alter the antigenicity of the virus and the resultant single basic motif was stably retained following several passages in Vero and PER. C6 cells. RD3 was attenuated for growth in embryonated eggs, chickens, and ferrets. RD3 induced an antibody response in infected animals reactive against both the homologous virus and other H7 influenza viruses associated with recent infection by H7 viruses in humans. Conclusions: This is the first report of a candidate H7 vaccine virus for use in humans generated by reverse genetics and propagated entirely in mammalian tissue culture. The vaccine has potential use against a wide range of H7 strains.

Variation in the ability of human influenza A viruses to induce and inhibit the IFN-beta pathway

We investigated the ability of a selection of human influenza A viruses, including recent clinical isolates, to induce IFN-beta production in cultured cell lines. In contrast to the well-characterized laboratory strain A/PR/8/34, several, but not all, recent isolates of H3N2 viruses resulted in moderate IFN-beta stimulation. Through the generation of recombinant viruses, we were able to show that this is not due to a loss of the ability of the NS1 genes to suppress IFN-beta induction; indeed, the NS1 genes behaved similarly with respect to their abilities to block dsRNA signaling. Interestingly, replication of A/Sydney/5/97 virus was less Susceptible to pre-treatment with IFN-alpha than the other viruses. In contrast to the universal effect on dsRNA signaling, we noted differences in the effect of NS1 proteins on expression of interferon stimulated genes and also genes induced by a distinct pathway. The majority of NS1 proteins blocked expression From both IFN-dependent and TNF-dependent promoters by an apparent post-transcriptional mechanism. The NS1 gene of A/PR/8/34 NS1 did not confer these blocks. We noted striking differences in the Cellular localization of different influenza A virus NS1 proteins during infection, which might explain differences in biological activity. (C) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infection of human airway epithelium by human and avian strains of influenza a virus

We describe the characterization of influenza A virus infection of an established in vitro model of human pseudostratified mucociliary airway epithelium (HAE). Sialic acid receptors for both human and avian viruses, alpha-2,6- and alpha-2,3-linked sialic acids, respectively, were detected on the HAE cell surface, and their distribution accurately reflected that in human tracheobronchial tissue. Nonciliated cells present a higher proportion of alpha-2,6-linked sialic acid, while ciliated cells possess both sialic acid linkages. Although we found that human influenza viruses infected both ciliated and nonciliated cell types in the first round of infection, recent human H3N2 viruses infected a higher proportion of nonciliated cells in HAE than a 1968 pandemic-era human virus, which infected proportionally more ciliated cells. In contrast, avian influenza viruses exclusively infected ciliated cells. Although a broad-range neuraminidase abolished infection of HAE by human parainfluenza virus type 3, this treatment did not significantly affect infection by influenza viruses. All human viruses replicated efficiently in HAE, leading to accumulation of nascent virus released from the apical surface between 6 and 24 h postinfection with a low multiplicity of infection. Avian influenza A viruses also infected HAE, but spread was limited compared to that of human viruses. The nonciliated cell tropism of recent human H3N2 viruses reflects a preference for the sialic acid linkages displayed on these cell types and suggests a drift in the receptor binding phenotype of the H3 hemagglutinin protein as it evolves in humans away from its avian virus precursor.

Characterization of recombinant influenza B viruses with key neuraminidase inhibitor resistance mutations

Objectives and methods: An influenza B virus plasmid-based rescue system was used to introduce site-specific mutations, previously observed in neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor-resistant viruses, into the NA protein of six recombinant viruses. Three mutations observed only among in vitro selected zanamivir-resistant influenza A mutants were introduced into the B/Beijing/1/87 virus NA protein, to change residue E116 to glycine, alanine or aspartic acid. Residue E116 was also mutated to valine, a mutation found in the clinic among oseltamivir-resistant viruses. An arginine to lysine change at position 291 (292 N2 numbering) mimicked that seen frequently in influenza A N2 clinical isolates resistant to oseltamivir. Similarly, an arginine to lysine change at position 149 (152 in N2 numbering) was made to reproduce the change found in the only reported zanamivir-resistant clinical isolate of influenza B virus. In vitro selection and prolonged treatment in the clinic leads to resistance pathways that require compensatory mutations in the haemagglutinin gene, but these appear not to be important for mutants isolated from immunocompetent patients. The reverse genetics system was therefore used to generate mutants containing only the NA mutation. Results and conclusions: With the exception of a virus containing the E116G mutation, mutant viruses were attenuated to different levels in comparison with wild-type virus. This attenuation was a result of altered NA activity or stability depending on the introduced mutation. Mutant viruses displayed increased resistance to zanamivir, oseltamivir and peramivir, with certain viruses displaying cross-resistance to all three drugs.