Modelling the implied volatility of options on long gilt futures

This paper investigates the properties of implied volatility series calculated from options on Treasury bond futures, traded on LIFFE. We demonstrate that the use of near-maturity at the money options to calculate implied volatilities causes less mis-pricing and is therefore superior to, a weighted average measure encompassing all relevant options. We demonstrate that, whilst a set of macroeconomic variables has some predictive power for implied volatilities, we are not able to earn excess returns by trading on the basis of these predictions once we allow for typical investor transactions costs.

Accounting quality, information risk and implied volatility around earnings announcements

We examine the impact of accounting quality, used as a proxy for information risk, on the behavior of equity implied volatility around quarterly earnings announcements. Using US data during 1996–2010, we observe that lower (higher) accounting quality significantly relates to higher (lower) levels of implied volatility (IV) around announcements. Worse accounting quality is further associated with a significant increase in IV before announcements, and is found to relate to a larger resolution in IV after the announcement has taken place. We interpret our findings as indicative of information risk having a significant impact on implied volatility behavior around earnings announcements.

The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting

In this paper, we study the role of the volatility risk premium for the forecasting performance of implied volatility. We introduce a non-parametric and parsimonious approach to adjust the model-free implied volatility for the volatility risk premium and implement this methodology using more than 20 years of options and futures data on three major energy markets. Using regression models and statistical loss functions, we find compelling evidence to suggest that the risk premium adjusted implied volatility significantly outperforms other models, including its unadjusted counterpart. Our main finding holds for different choices of volatility estimators and competing time-series models, underlying the robustness of our results.

Capturing UK real estate volitility

Volatility, or the variability of the underlying asset, is one of the key fundamental components of property derivative pricing and in the application of real option models in development analysis. There has been relatively little work on volatility in real terms of its application to property derivatives and the real options analysis. Most research on volatility stems from investment performance (Nathakumaran & Newell (1995), Brown & Matysiak 2000, Booth & Matysiak 2001). Historic standard deviation is often used as a proxy for volatility and there has been a reliance on indices, which are subject to valuation smoothing effects. Transaction prices are considered to be more volatile than the traditional standard deviations of appraisal based indices. This could lead, arguably, to inefficiencies and mis-pricing, particularly if it is also accepted that changes evolve randomly over time and where future volatility and not an ex-post measure is the key (Sing 1998). If history does not repeat, or provides an unreliable measure, then estimating model based (implied) volatility is an alternative approach (Patel & Sing 2000). This paper is the first of two that employ alternative approaches to calculating and capturing volatility in UK real estate for the purposes of applying the measure to derivative pricing and real option models. It draws on a uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing over 21,000 properties over the period 1983-2005. In this first paper the magnitude of historic amplification associated with asset returns by sector and geographic spread is looked at. In the subsequent paper the focus will be upon model based (implied) volatility.

The option market reaction to bank loan announcements

In this study, we examine the options market reaction to bank loan announcements for the population of US firms with traded options and loan announcements during 1996-2010. We get evidence on a significant options market reaction to bank loan announcements in terms of levels and changes in short-term implied volatility and its term structure, and observe significant decreases in short-term implied volatility, and significant increases in the slope of its term structure as a result of loan announcements. Our findings appear to be more pronounced for firms with more information asymmetry, lower credit ratings and loans with longer maturities and higher spreads. Evidence is consistent with loan announcements providing reassurance for investors in the short-term, however, over longer time horizons, the increase in the TSIV slope indicates that investors become increasingly unsure over the potential risks of loan repayment or uses of the proceeds.

American option valuation: implied calibration of GARCH pricing models

This study analyzes the issue of American option valuation when the underlying exhibits a GARCH-type volatility process. We propose the usage of Rubinstein's Edgeworth binomial tree (EBT) in contrast to simulation-based methods being considered in previous studies. The EBT-based valuation approach makes an implied calibration of the pricing model feasible. By empirically analyzing the pricing performance of American index and equity options, we illustrate the superiority of the proposed approach.

Simulating regional scale secondary organic aerosol formation during the TORCH 2003 campaign in the southern UK

A photochemical trajectory model has been used to simulate the chemical evolution of air masses arriving at the TORCH field campaign site in the southern UK during late July and August 2003, a period which included a widespread and prolonged photochemical pollution episode. The model incorporates speciated emissions of 124 nonmethane anthropogenic VOC and three representative biogenic VOC, coupled with a comprehensive description of the chemistry of their degradation. A representation of the gas/aerosol absorptive partitioning of ca. 2000 oxygenated organic species generated in the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3.1) has been implemented, allowing simulation of the contribution to organic aerosol (OA) made by semi- and non-volatile products of VOC oxidation; emissions of primary organic aerosol (POA) and elemental carbon (EC) are also represented. Simulations of total OA mass concentrations in nine case study events (optimised by comparison with observed hourly-mean mass loadings derived from aerosol mass spectrometry measurements) imply that the OA can be ascribed to three general sources: (i) POA emissions; (ii) a '' ubiquitous '' background concentration of 0.7 mu g m(-3); and (iii) gas-to-aerosol transfer of lower volatility products of VOC oxidation generated by the regional scale processing of emitted VOC, but with all partitioning coefficients increased by a species-independent factor of 500. The requirement to scale the partitioning coefficients, and the implied background concentration, are both indicative of the occurrence of chemical processes within the aerosol which allow the oxidised organic species to react by association and/or accretion reactions which generate even lower volatility products, leading to a persistent, non-volatile secondary organic aerosol (SOA). The contribution of secondary organic material to the simulated OA results in significant elevations in the simulated ratio of organic carbon (OC) to EC, compared with the ratio of 1.1 assigned to the emitted components. For the selected case study events, [OC]/[EC] is calculated to lie in the range 2.7-9.8, values which are comparable with the high end of the range reported in the literature.

The small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: empirical evidence and implied inflation dynamics

In this paper we apply GMM estimation to assess the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics in a sample of OECD countries typically classified as open economies. The analysis is based on a variant of the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (Rev Econ Stud 72:707–734, 2005), where the novel feature is that expectations about fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as the more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap.

The value premium and time-varying volatility

Numerous studies have documented the failure of the static and conditional capital asset pricing models to explain the difference in returns between value and growth stocks. This paper examines the post-1963 value premium by employing a model that captures the time-varying total risk of the value-minus-growth portfolios. Our results show that the time-series of value premia is strongly and positively correlated with its volatility. This conclusion is robust to the criterion used to sort stocks into value and growth portfolios and to the country under review (the US and the UK). Our paper is consistent with evidence on the possible role of idiosyncratic risk in explaining equity returns, and also with a separate strand of literature concerning the relative lack of reversibility of value firms' investment decisions.

International financial centres, office market rents and volatility

Despite continuing developments in information technology and the growing economic significance of the emerging Eastern European, South American and Asian economies, international financial activity remains strongly concentrated in a relatively small number of international financial centres. That concentration of financial activity requires a critical mass of office occupation and creates demand for high specification, high cost space. The demand for that space is increasingly linked to the fortunes of global capital markets. That linkage has been emphasised by developments in real estate markets, notably the development of global real estate investment, innovation in property investment vehicles and the growth of debt securitisation. The resultant interlinking of occupier, asset, debt and development markets within and across global financial centres is a source of potential volatility and risk. The paper sets out a broad conceptual model of the linkages and their implications for systemic market risk and presents preliminary empirical results that provide support for the model proposed.