The impact of multiskilling on UK construction manpower

The overall significance of the construction and building services sector internationally cannot be overemphasised. In the UK, the industry currently accounts for 10% gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 2 million people, which is more than 1 in 14 of the total workforce. However, regardless of its output (approximately £65 billion annually) there has been a steady decline in the number of trade entrants into the construction and building services sector. Consequently, the available ‘pool of labour’ is inadequately resourced; productivity is low; the existing labour force is overstressed; there is an increase in site deaths; and a long-term labour shortage is envisaged. Today, the evidence seems to suggest that multiskilling is a tentative redress for ameliorating the skills crisis in the construction and building sectors. A 43-year time-series of data on 23 manpower attributes was evaluated as part of this investigation. The developed linear regression models show that the concept of multiskilling obeys the ‘law of diminishing returns'. That is, a weak relation was found between construction output and a three or more combination of manpower attributes. An optimisation model is prescribed for traditional trades.

Detecting the environmental impact of the Baltic Crusades on a late-medieval (13th-15th century) frontier landscape: palynological analysis from Malbork Castle and hinterland, Northern Poland

Palaeoecological analysis of peat deposits from a small bog, combined with pollen analysis of sediments infilling the moat of the nearby Teutonic Order castle at Malbork, have been used to examine the ecological impact of the Crusades on the late-medieval landscape of Northern Poland. Studies of the environmental impact of the Crusades have been almost exclusively informed by written sources; this study is the first of its type to directly investigate the environmental context of Crusading as a force of ecological transformation on the late-medieval Baltic landscape. The pollen evidence from Malbork Castle and its hinterland demonstrate that the 12th/13th–15th centuries coincide with a marked transformation in vegetation and land-use, characterized by clearance of broadleaved woodland and subsequent agricultural intensification, particularly during the 14th/15th centuries. These changes are ascribed to landscape transformations associated with the Teutonic Order’s control of the landscape from the mid-13th century. Human activity identified in the pollen record prior to this is argued to reflect the activities of Pomeranian settlers in the area. This paper also discusses the broader palaeoecological evidence for medieval landscape change across Northern Poland.

The impact of real estate on the mixed-asset portfolio in periods of financial stress

The case for holding real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio is typically made on its stabilising effect as a result of its diversification benefits. However, portfolio diversification often fails when it is most needed, i.e. during periods of financial stress. In these periods, the variability of returns for most asset classes increases thus reducing the stabilising effect of a diversified portfolio. This paper applies the approach of Chow et al (1999) to the US domestic mixed-asset portfolio to establish whether real estate, represented by REITs, is especially useful in times of financial stress. To this end monthly returns data on five assets classes: large cap stocks, small cap stocks, long dated government bonds, cash (T-Bills) and real estate (REITs) are evaluated over the period January 1972 to December 2001. The results indicate that the inclusion of REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio can lead to increases or decreases in returns depending on the asset class replaced and whether the period is one of calm or stress. However, the inclusion of REITs invariably leads to reductions in portfolio risk that are greater than any loss in return, especially in periods of financial stress. In other words, REITs acts as a stabilising force on the mixed-asset portfolio when it is most needed, i.e. in periods of financial stress.

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

Food restriction reverses the hyper-muscular phenotype and force generation capacity deficit of the myostatin null mouse

Food restriction has a great impact on skeletal muscle mass by inducing muscle protein breakdown to provide substrates for energy production through gluconeogenesis. Genetic models of hyper-muscularity interfere with the normal balance between protein synthesis and breakdown which eventually results in extreme muscle growth. Mutations or deletions in the myostatin gene result in extreme muscle mass. Here we evaluated the impact of food restriction for a period of 5 weeks on skeletal muscle size (i.e., fibre cross-sectional area), fibre type composition and contractile properties (i.e., tetanic and specific force) in myostatin null mice. We found that this hyper-muscular model was more susceptible to catabolic processes than wild type mice. The mechanism of skeletal muscle mass loss was examined and our data shows that the myostatin null mice placed on a low calorie diet maintained the activity of molecules involved in protein synthesis and did not up-regulate the expression of genes pivotal in ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation. However, we did find an increase in the expression of genes associated with autophagy. Surprisingly, the reduction on muscle size was followed by improved tetanic and specific force in the null mice compared to wild type mice. These data provide evidence that food restriction may revert the hyper-muscular phenotype of the myostatin null mouse restoring muscle function.

The impact of buy to let residential investment on local housing markets: evidence from Glasgow, Scotland

The advent of the 'buy to let' (BTL) phenomenon in the UK. apart from producing a new wave of individualized rental market investment, has been widely judged to be a speculative and destabilizing force in the housing market. This paper provides a detailed empirical investigation of new residential investment in one city (Glasgow) where BTL has made a relatively large impact. In seeking to overcome data problems, the study employed qualitative (expert interviews and a landlord survey) and quantitative methods (census, the Register of Sasines, standardized house price information and modelling thereof) in order to assess the nature and scale of BTL, the motivations of investors and its impact on the private housing market. The evidence suggests that white Glasgow is in many re.spects different to rental markets elsewhere in the UK and although the investment has thus far largely occurred in a benign environment, the context for future investment, on balance, looks sustainable (i.e.favourable changes to pension planning law and the maturing market for BTL}. Long-term market impact is an empirical question that depends on the specific interactions of market niches or segments (i.e. the first-time buyer market for apartments} with potential buy to let investment. Our conclusion, to borrow a Scottish legal term, is that BTL induced volatility is 'not proven'.

ENSO impact on Kelvin waves and associated tropical convection

The impact of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on atmospheric Kelvin waves and associated tropical convection is investigated using the ECMWF Re-Analysis, NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and the analysis technique introduced in a previous study. It is found that the phase of ENSO has a substantial impact on Kelvin waves and associated convection over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. El Nino (La Nina) events enhance (suppress) variability of the upper-tropospheric Kelvin wave and the associated convection there, both in extended boreal winter and summer. The mechanism of the impact is through changes in the ENSO-related thermal conditions and the ambient flow. In El Nino years, because of SST increase in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, variability of eastward-moving convection, which is mainly associated with Kelvin waves, intensifies in the region. In addition, owing to the weakening of the equatorial eastern Pacific westerly duct in the upper troposphere in El Nino years, Kelvin waves amplify there. In La Nina years, the opposite occurs. However, the stronger westerly duct in La Nina winters allows more NH extratropical Rossby wave activity to propagate equatorward and force Kelvin waves around 200 hPa, partially offsetting the in situ weakening effect of the stronger westerlies on the waves. In general, in El Nino years Kelvin waves are more convectively and vertically coupled and propagate more upward into the lower stratosphere over the central-eastern Pacific. The ENSO impact in other regions is not clear, although in winter over the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans Kelvin waves and their associated convection are slightly weaker in El Nino than in La Nina years.

Impact of non-hydrostatic effects and trapped lee waves on mountain wave drag in directionally sheared flow

The orographic gravity wave drag produced in flow over an axisymmetric mountain when both vertical wind shear and non-hydrostatic effects are important was calculated using a semi-analytical two-layer linear model, including unidirectional or directional constant wind shear in a layer near the surface, above which the wind is constant. The drag behaviour is determined by partial wave reflection at the shear discontinuity, wave absorption at critical levels (both of which exist in hydrostatic flow), and total wave reflection at levels where the waves become evanescent (an intrinsically non-hydrostatic effect), which produces resonant trapped lee wave modes. As a result of constructive or destructive wave interference, the drag oscillates with the thickness of the constant-shear layer and the Richardson number within it (Ri), generally decreasing at low Ri and when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic. Critical level absorption, which increases with the angle spanned by the wind velocity in the constant-shear layer, shields the surface from reflected waves, keeping the drag closer to its hydrostatic limit. While, for the parameter range considered here, the drag seldom exceeds this limit, a substantial drag fraction may be produced by trapped lee waves, particularly when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic, the lower layer is thick and Ri is relatively high. In directionally sheared flows with Ri = O(1), the drag may be misaligned with the surface wind in a direction opposite to the shear, a behaviour which is totally due to non-trapped waves. The trapped lee wave drag, whose reaction force on the atmosphere is felt at low levels, may therefore have a distinctly different direction from the drag associated with vertically propagating waves, which acts on the atmosphere at higher levels.

Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane) concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3 times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. The source of this effect is largely due to the construction of the input ozone fields, which overestimate the true ensemble spread. Hence, while the average of multi-model fields are normally appropriate for calculating mean RF, GWP and GTP, they are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty in these fields, and in general overestimate the uncertainty.

Corticomuscular coherence modulation with the pattern of finger force coordination

We assess the corticomuscular coherence (CMC) of the contralateral primary motor cortex and the hand muscles during a finger force-tracking task and explore whether the pattern of finger coordination has an impact on the CMC level. Six healthy subjects (three men and three women) were recruited to conduct the force-tracking tasks comprising two finger patterns, i.e., natural combination of index and middle fingers and unnatural combination of index and middle fingers (i.e., simultaneously producing equal force strength in index and middle finger). During the conducting of the tasks with right index and middle finger, MEG and sEMG signals were recorded from left primary motor cortex (M1) and right flexor digitorum superficialis (FDS), respectively; the contralateral CMC was calculated to assess the neuromuscular interaction. Finger force-tracking tasks of Common-IM only induce beta-band CMC, whereas Uncommon-IM tasks produce CMC in both beta and low-gamma band. Compared to the force-tracking tasks of Common-IM, the Uncommon-IM task is associated with the most intensive contralateral CMC. Our study demonstrated that the pattern of finger coordination had significant impact on the CMC between the contralateral M1 and hand muscles, and more corticomuscular interaction was necessary for unnaturally coordinated finger activities to regulate the fixed neural drive of hand muscles.