Quantification of the probability of containment failure caused by an in-vessel steam explosion for the Sizewell B PWR

AEA Technology has provided an assessment of the probability of α-mode containment failure for the Sizewell B PWR. After a preliminary review of the methodologies available it was decided to use the probabilistic approach described in the paper, based on an extension of the methodology developed by Theofanous et al. (Nucl. Sci. Eng. 97 (1987) 259–325). The input to the assessment is 12 probability distributions; the bases for the quantification of these distributions are discussed. The α-mode assessment performed for the Sizewell B PWR has demonstrated the practicality of the event-tree method with input data represented by probability distributions. The assessment itself has drawn attention to a number of topics, which may be plant and sequence dependent, and has indicated the importance of melt relocation scenarios. The α-mode failure probability following an accident that leads to core melt relocation to the lower head for the Sizewell B PWR has been assessed as a few parts in 10 000, on the basis of current information. This assessment has been the first to consider elevated pressures (6 MPa and 15 MPa) besides atmospheric pressure, but the results suggest only a modest sensitivity to system pressure.

Quantifying sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments at a catchment scale using geomorphic process units

The research record on the quantification of sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments in Scandimvia dates back to the 1950s. A wide range of measurements is. available, especially from the Karkevagge region of northern Sweden. Within this paper satellite image analysis and tools provided by geographic information systems (GIS) are exploited in order to extend and improve this research and to complement geophysical methods. The processes of interest include mass movements such as solifluction, slope wash, dirty avalanches and rock-and boulder falls. Geomorphic process units have been derived in order to allow quantification via GIS techniques at a catchment scale. Mass movement rates based on existing Field measurements are employed in the budget calculation. In the Karkevagge catch ment. 80% of the area can be identified either as a source area for sediments or as a zone where sediments are deposited. The overall budget for the slopes beneath the rockwalls in the Karkevagge is approximately 680 t a(-1) whilst about 150 : a-1 are transported into the fluvial System.

A geostatistical analysis of soil, vegetation, and image data characterizing land surface variation

The elucidation of spatial variation in the landscape can indicate potential wildlife habitats or breeding sites for vectors, such as ticks or mosquitoes, which cause a range of diseases. Information from remotely sensed data could aid the delineation of vegetation distribution on the ground in areas where local knowledge is limited. The data from digital images are often difficult to interpret because of pixel-to-pixel variation, that is, noise, and complex variation at more than one spatial scale. Landsat Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Satellite Pour l'Observation de La Terre (SPOT) image data were analyzed for an area close to Douna in Mali, West Africa. The variograms of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from both types of image data were nested. The parameters of the nested variogram function from the Landsat ETM+ data were used to design the sampling for a ground survey of soil and vegetation data. Variograms of the soil and vegetation data showed that their variation was anisotropic and their scales of variation were similar to those of NDVI from the SPOT data. The short- and long-range components of variation in the SPOT data were filtered out separately by factorial kriging. The map of the short-range component appears to represent the patterns of vegetation and associated shallow slopes and drainage channels of the tiger bush system. The map of the long-range component also appeared to relate to broader patterns in the tiger bush and to gentle undulations in the topography. The results suggest that the types of image data analyzed in this study could be used to identify areas with more moisture in semiarid regions that could support wildlife and also be potential vector breeding sites.

The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model.

1. There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6. Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Quantification of ruminal Clostridium proteoclasticum by real-time PCR using a molecular beacon approach

Aims: All members of the ruminal Butyrivibrio group convert linoleic acid (cis-9,cis-12-18 : 2) via conjugated 18 : 2 metabolites (mainly cis-9,trans-11-18 : 2, conjugated linoleic acid) to vaccenic acid (trans-11-18 : 1), but only members of a small branch, which includes Clostridium proteoclasticum, of this heterogeneous group further reduce vaccenic acid to stearic acid (18 : 0, SA). The aims of this study were to develop a real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay that would detect and quantify these key SA producers and to use this method to detect diet-associated changes in their populations in ruminal digesta of lactating cows. Materials and Results: The use of primers targeting the 16S rRNA gene of Cl. proteoclasticum was not sufficiently specific when only binding dyes were used for detection in real-time PCR. Their sequences were too similar to some nonproducing strains. A molecular beacon probe was designed specifically to detect and quantify the 16S rRNA genes of the Cl. proteoclasticum subgroup. The probe was characterized by its melting curve and validated using five SA-producing and ten nonproducing Butyrivibrio-like strains and 13 other common ruminal bacteria. Analysis of ruminal digesta collected from dairy cows fed different proportions of starch and fibre indicated a Cl. proteoclasticum population of 2-9% of the eubacterial community. The influence of diet on numbers of these bacteria was less than variations between individual cows. Conclusion: A molecular beacon approach in qPCR enables the detection of Cl. proteoclasticum in ruminal digesta. Their numbers are highly variable between individual animals. Signifance and Impact of the Study: SA producers are fundamental to the flow of polyunsaturated fatty acid and vaccenic acid from the rumen. The method described here enabled preliminary information to be obtained about the size of this population. Further application of the method to digesta samples from cows fed diets of more variable composition should enable us to understand how to control these bacteria in order to enhance the nutritional characteristics of ruminant-derived foods, including milk and beef.

Agonist-dependent internalization of D2 receptors: imaging quantification by confocal microscopy

In positron emission tomography and single photon emission computed tomography studies using D2 dopamine (DA) receptor radiotracers, a decrease in radiotracer binding potential (BP) is usually interpreted in terms of increased competition with synaptic DA. However, some data suggest that this signal may also reflect agonist (DA)-induced increases in D2 receptor (D2R) internalization, a process which would presumably also decrease the population of receptors available for binding to hydrophilic radioligands. To advance interpretation of alterations in D2 radiotracer BP, direct methods of assessment of D2R internalization are required. Here, we describe a confocal microscopy-based approach for the quantification of agonist-dependent receptor internalization. The method relies upon double-labeling of the receptors with antibodies directed against intracellular as well as extracellular epitopes. Following agonist stimulation, DA D2R internalization was quantified by differentiating, in optical cell sections, the signal due to the staining of the extracellular from intracellular epitopes of D2Rs. Receptor internalization was increased in the presence of the D2 agonists DA and bromocriptine, but not the D1 agonist SKF38393. Pretreatment with either the D2 antagonist sulpiride, or inhibitors of internalization (phenylarsine oxide and high molarity sucrose), blocked D2-agonist induced receptor internalization, thus validating this method in vitro. This approach therefore provides a direct and streamlined methodology for investigating the pharmacological and mechanistic aspects of D2R internalization, and should inform the interpretation of results from in vivo receptor imaging studies.

The use of image analysis to estimate population growth rate in Daphnia magna

1. Population growth rate (PGR) is central to the theory of population ecology and is crucial for projecting population trends in conservation biology, pest management and wildlife harvesting. Furthermore, PGR is increasingly used to assess the effects of stressors. Image analysis that can automatically count and measure photographed individuals offers a potential methodology for estimating PGR. 2. This study evaluated two ways in which the PGR of Daphnia magna, exposed to different stressors, can be estimated using an image analysis system. The first method estimated PGR as the ratio of counts of individuals obtained at two different times, while the second method estimated PGR as the ratio of population sizes at two different times, where size is measured by the sum of the individuals' surface areas, i.e. total population surface area. This method is attractive if surface area is correlated with reproductive value (RV), as it is for D. magna, because of the theoretical result that PGR is the rate at which the population RV increases. 3. The image analysis system proved reliable and reproducible in counting populations of up to 440 individuals in 5 L of water. Image counts correlated well with manual counts but with a systematic underestimate of about 30%. This does not affect accuracy when estimating PGR as the ratio of two counts. Area estimates of PGR correlated well with count estimates, but were systematically higher, possibly reflecting their greater accuracy in the study situation. 4. Analysis of relevant scenarios suggested the correlation between RV and body size will generally be good for organisms in which fecundity correlates with body size. In these circumstances, area estimation of PGR is theoretically better than count estimation. 5. Synthesis and applications. There are both theoretical and practical advantages to area estimation of population growth rate when individuals' reproductive values are consistently well correlated with their surface areas. Because stressors may affect both the number and quality of individuals, area estimation of population growth rate should improve the accuracy of predicting stress impacts at the population level.

The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model

1.There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6.Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

Seasonal 'fall out' of sessile macro-fauna from submarine cliffs: quantification, causes and implications

Submarine cliffs are typically crowded with sessile organisms, most of which are ultimately exported downwards. Here we report a 24 month study of benthic fauna dropping from such cliffs at sites of differing cliff angle and flow rates at Lough Hyne Marine Nature Reserve, Co. Cork, Ireland. The magnitude of 'fall out' material collected in capture nets was highly seasonal and composed of sessile and mobile elements. Sponges, ascidians, cnidarians, polychaetes, bryozoans and barnacles dominated the sessile forms. The remainder (mobile fauna) were scavengers and predators such as asteroid echinoderms, gastropod molluscs and malacostracan crustaceans. These were probably migrants targeting fallen sessile organisms. 'Fall out' material (including mobile forms) increased between May and August in both years. This increase in 'fall out' material was correlated with wrasse abundance at the cliffs (with a one month lag period). The activities of the wrasse on the cliffs (feeding, nest building and territory defence) were considered responsible for the majority of 'fall out' material, with natural mortality and the activity of other large mobile organisms (e.g. crustaceans) also being triplicated. Current flow rate and cliff profile were important in amount of 'fall out' material collected. In low current situations export of fallen material was vertical, while both horizontal and vertical export was associated with moderate to high current environments. Higher 'fall out' was associated with overhanging than vertical cliff surfaces. The 'fall out' of marine organisms in low current situations is likely to provide ail important source of nutrition in close proximity to the cliff, in an otherwise impoverished soft sediment habitat. However, in high current areas material will be exported some distance from the source, with final settlement again occurring in soft sediment habitats (as current speed decreases).