Global climate and ocean circulation on an aquaplanet ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

A low resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model OAGCM is used to study the characteristics of the large scale ocean circulation and its climatic impacts in a series of global coupled aquaplanet experiments. Three configurations, designed to produce fundamentally different ocean circulation regimes, are considered. The first has no obstruction to zonal flow, the second contains a low barrier that blocks zonal flow in the ocean at all latitudes, creating a single enclosed basin, whilst the third contains a gap in the barrier to allow circumglobal flow at high southern latitudes. Warm greenhouse climates with a global average air surface temperature of around 27C result in all cases. Equator to pole temperature gradients are shallower than that of a current climate simulation. Whilst changes in the land configuration cause regional changes in temperature, winds and rainfall, heat transports within the system are little affected. Inhibition of all ocean transport on the aquaplanet leads to a reduction in global mean surface temperature of 8C, along with a sharpening of the meridional temperature gradient. This results from a reduction in global atmospheric water vapour content and an increase in tropical albedo, both of which act to reduce global surface temperatures. Fitting a simple radiative model to the atmospheric characteristics of the OAGCM solutions suggests that a simpler atmosphere model, with radiative parameters chosen a priori based on the changing surface configuration, would have produced qualitatively different results. This implies that studies with reduced complexity atmospheres need to be guided by more complex OAGCM results on a case by case basis.

Aging is associated with positive responding to neutral information but reduced recovery from negative information

Studies on aging and emotion suggest an increase in reported positive affect, a processing bias of positive over negative information, as well as increasingly adaptive regulation in response to negative events with advancing age. These findings imply that older individuals evaluate information differently, resulting in lowered reactivity to, and/or faster recovery from, negative information, while maintaining more positive responding to positive information. We examined this hypothesis in an ongoing study on Midlife in the US (MIDUS II) where emotional reactivity and recovery were assessed in a large number of respondents (N = 159) from a wide age range (36–84 years). We recorded eye-blink startle magnitudes and corrugator activity during and after the presentation of positive, neutral and negative pictures. The most robust age effect was found in response to neutral stimuli, where increasing age is associated with a decreased corrugator and eyeblink startle response to neutral stimuli. These data suggest that an age-related positivity effect does not essentially alter the response to emotion-laden information, but is reflected in a more positive interpretation of affectively ambiguous information. Furthermore, older women showed reduced corrugator recovery from negative pictures relative to the younger women and men, suggesting that an age-related prioritization of well-being is not necessarily reflected in adaptive regulation of negative affect.

Nutritional and safety assessments of foods and feeds nutritionally improved through biotechnology: Case studies

During the last 2 decades, the public and private sectors have made substantial international research progress toward improving the nutritional value of a wide range of food and feed crops. Nevertheless, significant numbers of people still suffer from the effects of undernutrition. In addition, the nutritional quality of feed is often a limiting factor in livestock production systems, particularly those in developing countries. As newly developed crops with nutritionally improved traits come closer to being available to producers and consumers, we must ensure that scientifically sound and efficient processes are used to assess the safety and nutritional quality of these crops. Such processes will facilitate deploying these crops to those world areas with large numbers of people who need them. This document describes 5 case studies of crops with improved nutritional value. These case studies examine the principles and recommendations published by the Intl. Life Sciences Inst. (ILSI) in 2004 for the safety and nutritional assessment of foods and feeds derived from nutritionally improved crops (ILSI 2004). One overarching conclusion that spans all 5 case studies is that the comparative safety assessment process is a valid approach. Such a process has been endorsed by many publications and organizations, including the 2004 ILSI publication. The type and extent of data that are appropriate for a scientifically sound comparative safety assessment are presented on a case-by-case basis in a manner that takes into account scientific results published since the 2004 ILSI report. This report will appear in the January issue of Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety.

Budgetary implications of, and motives for, converting to organic farming: Case study farm business evidence from Great Britain

This paper explores the financial implications of converting to organic farming in Great Britain through a case study of farmers considering conversion in 2002. Most study farmers were motivated to convert for financial, not ideological or life-style reasons; organic meat production was the most common planned enterprise, although those choosing to produce milk, vegetables and cereals were also studied in depth. At the time of study, organic beef and sheep meat production was particularly profitable. It was found that, in these product sectors, a large improvement in Family Farm Income would result if organic production was introduced on the case study farms. With few exceptions, a fall in Family Farm Income during the conversion period would not be an obstacle to farmers changing to organic methods. Fixed cost changes would also not deter conversion but expensive investment in new livestock and appropriate buildings would be required by some of those businesses studied. These findings are, however, dependent upon the price premia assumptions used and, whilst these premia have dropped slightly since the time of study, this would lessen the financial shortfall during the conversion period. There is also the possibility that reversion to conventional agricultural production might occur, perhaps at a faster rate than the original conversion process that was taking place around the turn of the century.

The business case development process in the delivery of NHS infrastructure

There is a lack of knowledge base in relation to experiences gained and lessons learnt from previously executed National Health Service (NHS) infrastructure projects in the UK. This is in part a feature of one-off construction projects, which typify healthcare infrastructure, and in part due to the absence of a suitable method for conveying such information. The complexity of infrastructure delivery process in the NHS makes the construction of healthcare buildings a formidable task. This is particularly the case for the NHS trusts who have little or no experience of construction projects. To facilitate understanding a most important aspect of the delivery process, which is the preparation of a capital investment proposal; steps taken in developing the business case for an NHS healthcare facility are examined. The context for such examination is provided by the planning process of a healthcare project, studied retrospectively. The process is analysed using a social science based method called ‘building stories’, developed at the University of California-Berkeley. By applying this method, stories or narratives are constructed around the data captured on the case study. The findings indicate that the business case process may be used to justify, rather than identify, trusts’ requirements. The study is useful for UK public sector clients as well as consultants and professionals who aim to participate in the delivery of healthcare infrastructure projects in the UK.

Influence of probabilistic climate projections on building energy simulation

The Chartered Institute of Building Service Engineers (CIBSE) produced a technical memorandum (TM36) presenting research on future climate impacting building energy use and thermal comfort. One climate projection for each of four CO2 emissions scenario were used in TM36, so providing a deterministic outlook. As part of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) probabilistic climate projections are being studied in relation to building energy simulation techniques. Including uncertainty in climate projections is considered an important advance to climate impacts modelling and is included in the latest UKCIP data (UKCP09). Incorporating the stochastic nature of these new climate projections in building energy modelling requires a significant increase in data handling and careful statistical interpretation of the results to provide meaningful conclusions. This paper compares the results from building energy simulations when applying deterministic and probabilistic climate data. This is based on two case study buildings: (i) a mixed-mode office building with exposed thermal mass and (ii) a mechanically ventilated, light-weight office building. Building (i) represents an energy efficient building design that provides passive and active measures to maintain thermal comfort. Building (ii) relies entirely on mechanical means for heating and cooling, with its light-weight construction raising concern over increased cooling loads in a warmer climate. Devising an effective probabilistic approach highlighted greater uncertainty in predicting building performance, depending on the type of building modelled and the performance factors under consideration. Results indicate that the range of calculated quantities depends not only on the building type but is strongly dependent on the performance parameters that are of interest. Uncertainty is likely to be particularly marked with regard to thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings.

The treatment of mental contamination: a case series

The recommended treatment for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) incorporating exposure and response prevention (ERP), which is effective for approximately 50% of patients. However, there has been little advance in treatment outcomes since the introduction of ERP in 1979. It has been suggested that some progress can be made in treating contamination obsessions and washing compulsions by addressing feelings of dirtiness and contamination that arise without physical contact with a tangible contaminant. To date, the treatment of these “mental contamination” fears in OCD has not been systematically explored. This paper reports on a case series of 12 participants with OCD who received 10 to 20 sessions of a CBT-based treatment for mental contamination. At the end of treatment, 7 participants no longer met the diagnostic criteria for OCD and mental contamination and these gains were maintained at 6-month follow-up. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

'Penetrating' foreign lands: contestations over African landscape. A case study from Eastern Zimbabwe

While it was happening, European expansion was often legitimised by evoking frontier images: pioneers setting off from the metropolis, penetrating wilderness in order to open access to resources, like minerals, living-space, and fertile lands. Central to the ideology of the frontier is the notion of 'no-man's land'. These 'pioneers', however, often had to face local inhabitants and their interpretations and uses of this land. Thus it will be argued that contestations over landscape were at the same time battles over the legitimation of European expansion, as well as over local perceptions of this process. Ideologically, contestations by Europeans and Africans become apparent in the sexualisation of landscape. This paper is based on the case study of a Valley in eastern Zimbabwe on the border with Mozambique, and more specifically of two tea estates which were established in the rainforest. Unusually late for the region, European influence in this remote area only began to become significant in the 1950s which were an important turning point regarding land and landscape in the area. These years of great change will be analysed in order to map out different strands of interest by the main parties involved. It will be demonstrated that their readings of landscape translated into contestations over land. A recent example of such a conflict will be given.

On the structure of infinity-harmonic maps

Let H ∈ C 2(ℝ N×n ), H ≥ 0. The PDE system arises as the Euler-Lagrange PDE of vectorial variational problems for the functional E ∞(u, Ω) = ‖H(Du)‖ L ∞(Ω) defined on maps u: Ω ⊆ ℝ n → ℝ N . (1) first appeared in the author's recent work. The scalar case though has a long history initiated by Aronsson. Herein we study the solutions of (1) with emphasis on the case of n = 2 ≤ N with H the Euclidean norm on ℝ N×n , which we call the “∞-Laplacian”. By establishing a rigidity theorem for rank-one maps of independent interest, we analyse a phenomenon of separation of the solutions to phases with qualitatively different behaviour. As a corollary, we extend to N ≥ 2 the Aronsson-Evans-Yu theorem regarding non existence of zeros of |Du| and prove a maximum principle. We further characterise all H for which (1) is elliptic and also study the initial value problem for the ODE system arising for n = 1 but with H(·, u, u′) depending on all the arguments.

The impact of the elderly on inflation rates in developed countries

What explains the cross-national variation in inflation rates in developed countries? Previous literature has emphasised the role of ideas and institutions, and to a lesser extent interest groups, while leaving the role of electoral politics comparatively unexplored. This paper seeks to redress this neglect by focusing on one case where electoral politics matters for inflation: the share of the population above 65 years old in a country. I argue that countries with a larger share of elderly have lower inflation because older people are both more inflation averse and politically powerful, forcing governments to pursue lower inflation. I test my argument in three steps. First, logistic regression analysis of survey data confirms older people are more inflation averse. Second, panel data regression analysis of party manifesto data reveals that European countries with more old people have more economically orthodox political parties. Third, time series cross-section regression analyses demonstrate that the share of the elderly is negatively correlated with inflation in both a sample of 21 advanced OECD economies and a larger sample of 175 countries. Ageing may therefore push governments to adopt a low inflation regime.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.