Idealized model for changes in equilibrium temperature, mixed layer depth, and boundary layer cloud over land in a doubled CO2 climate

An idealized equilibrium model for the undisturbed partly cloudy boundary layer (BL) is used as a framework to explore the coupling of the energy, water, and carbon cycles over land in midlatitudes and show the sensitivity to the clear‐sky shortwave flux, the midtropospheric temperature, moisture, CO2, and subsidence. The changes in the surface fluxes, the BL equilibrium, and cloud cover are shown for a warmer, doubled CO2 climate. Reduced stomatal conductance in a simple vegetation model amplifies the background 2 K ocean temperature rise to an (unrealistically large) 6 K increase in near‐surface temperature over land, with a corresponding drop of near‐surface relative humidity of about 19%, and a rise of cloud base of about 70 hPa. Cloud changes depend strongly on changes of mean subsidence; but evaporative fraction (EF) decreases. EF is almost uniquely related to mixed layer (ML) depth, independent of background forcing climate. This suggests that it might be possible to infer EF for heterogeneous landscapes from ML depth. The asymmetry of increased evaporation over the oceans and reduced transpiration over land increases in a warmer doubled CO2 climate.

The DigiBog model of peatland development 1: rationale, conceptual model, and hydrological basis

Using a literature review, we argue that new models of peatland development are needed. Many existing models do not account for potentially important ecohydrological feedbacks, and/or ignore spatial structure and heterogeneity. Existing models, including those that simulate a near total loss of the northern peatland carbon store under a warming climate, may produce misleading results because they rely upon oversimplified representations of ecological and hydrological processes. In this, the first of a pair of papers, we present the conceptual framework for a model of peatland development, DigiBog, which considers peatlands as complex adaptive systems. DigiBog accounts for the interactions between the processes which govern litter production and peat decay, peat soil hydraulic properties, and peatland water-table behaviour, in a novel and genuinely ecohydrological manner. DigiBog consists of a number of interacting submodels, each representing a different aspect of peatland ecohydrology. Here we present in detail the mathematical and computational basis, as well as the implementation and testing, of the hydrological submodel. Remaining submodels are described and analysed in the accompanying paper. Tests of the hydrological submodel against analytical solutions for simple aquifers were highly successful: the greatest deviation between DigiBog and the analytical solutions was 2·83%. We also applied the hydrological submodel to irregularly shaped aquifers with heterogeneous hydraulic properties—situations for which no analytical solutions exist—and found the model's outputs to be plausible.

The UK Department of National Heritage: a model for the development and integration of leisure policy in the new Europe?

Leisure is in the vanguard of a social and cultural revolution which is replacing the former East/West political bipolarity with a globalised economic system in which the new Europe has a central rôle. Within this revolution, leisure, including recreation, culture and tourism, is constructed as the epitome of successful capitalist development; the very legitimisation of the global transmogrification from a production to a consumption orientation. While acting as a direct encouragement to the political transformation in many eastern European states, it is uncertain how the issue of leisure policy is being handled, given its centrality to the new economic order. This paper therefore examines the experience of western Europe, considering in particular the degree to which the newly-created Department of National Heritage in the UK provides a potential model for leisure development and policy integration in the new Europe. Despite an official rhetoric of support and promotion of leisure activities, reflecting the growing economic significance of tourism and the positive relationship between leisure provision and regional economic development, the paper establishes that in the place of the traditional rôle of the state in promoting leisure interests, the introduction of the Department has signified a shift to the use of leisure to promote the Government's interests, particularly in regenerating citizen rights claims towards the market. While an institution such as the Department of National Heritage may have relevance to emerging states as a element in the maintenance of political hegemony, therefore, it is questionable how far it can be viewed as a promoter or protector of leisure as a signifier of a newly-won political, economic and cultural freedom throughout Europe.

Workaround motivation model (WAMM): an adaptation of the Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour

The study of workarounds (WA) has increased in importance due to their impact on patient safety and efficiency. However, there are no adequate theories to explain the motivation to create and use a workaround in a healthcare sitting. Although theories of technology acceptance help to understand the reasons to accept or reject technology, they fail to explain drivers for alternatives. Also workarounds involve creators and performers that have different motivations. Models such as Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) or Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) can help to explain the role of workaround users, but lack explanation of workaround creators’ dynamics. Our aim is to develop a theoretical foundation to explain workaround motivation behaviour models with norms that relate to sanctions to provide an integrated Workaround Motivation Model; WAMM. The development of WAMM model is explained in this paper based on workaround cases as part of further research to establish the model.

A Possible Influence of Equatorial Winds on the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere Sudden Warming Event

The stratospheric sudden warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in September 2002 was unexpected for two reasons. First, planetary wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere is very weak, and midwinter warmings have never been observed, at least not since observations of the upper stratosphere became regularly available. Second, the warming occurred in a west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere. This is unexpected because warmings are usually considered to be more likely in the east phase of the QBO, when a zero wind line is present in the winter subtropics and hence confines planetary wave propagation to higher latitudes closer to the polar vortex. At first, this evidence suggests that the sudden warming must therefore be simply a result of anomalously strong planetary wave forcing from the troposphere. However, recent model studies have suggested that the midwinter polar vortex may also be sensitive to the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the semiannual oscillation. In this paper, the time series of equatorial zonal winds from two different data sources, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) and the Met Office assimilated dataset, are reviewed. Both suggest that the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere above 10 hPa were anomalously easterly in 2002. Idealized model experiments are described in which the modeled equatorial winds were relaxed toward these observations for various years to examine whether the anomalous easterlies in 2002 could influence the timing of a warming event. It is found that the 2002 equatorial winds speed up the evolution of a warming event in the model. Therefore, this study suggests that the anomalous easterlies in the 1–10-hPa region may have been a contributory factor in the development of the observed SH warming. However, it is concluded that it is unlikely that the anomalous equatorial winds alone can explain the 2002 warming event.

A semi-quantitative approach to deriving a model structure for the uptake of organic chemicals by vegetation

An expert elicitation exercise was undertaken to determine those components and processes that are most important for modeling plant uptake of organic chemicals. The state of our knowledge of these processes was also assessed. This semi-quantitative analysis allowed the construction of an idealized model with seven compartments; soil bulk, soil water, roots, stem, leaves, fruit, and air. Three main areas were identified further research: 1) the uptake of organic chemicals by fruit; 2) the internal transfer of organic chemicals between plant structures (e.g., stem and leaves); and 3) the transfer via the soil-air-plant pathway. Until new data becomes available to quantify these processes, it is proposed that an equilibrium partitioning approach is used between plant components other than fruit or that models consist of both an edible and inedible compartment.

Institutional sustainability: at what price? UNDP and the new cost-sharing model in Brazil

By the turn of the twenty-first century, UNDP had embraced a new form of funding based on ‘cost-sharing’, with this source accounting for 51 per cent of the organisation’s total expenditure worldwide in 2000. Unlike the traditional donor - recipient relationship so common with development projects, the new cost-sharing modality has created a situation whereby UNDP local offices become ‘subcontractors’ and agencies of the recipient countries become ‘clients’. This paper explores this transition in the context of Brazil, focusing on how the new modality may have compromised UNDP’s ability to promote Sustainable Human Development, as established in its mandate. The great enthusiasm for this modality within the UN system and its potential application to other developing countries increase the importance of a systematic assessment of its impact and developmental consequences.

Do national cultural differences affect the nature and characteristics of HRM practices? Evidence from Australian and Hong Kong construction firms on remuneration and job autonomy

Human resource management (HRM) plays a pivotal role in attracting and retaining talents. However, there is growing recognition in international HRM literature that the adoption of the widely accepted US/Harvard-inspired HRM model ignores the influences of cultural contexts on HRM practices in different countries. This notion has not been empirically investigated in the construction industry. Based on survey responses from 604 construction professionals from Australia and Hong Kong, this study examines whether: (i) national cultural differences influence individuals’ preference for types of remuneration and job autonomy, (ii) actual organizational HRM practices reflect such preferences and (iii) gaps between individuals’ preferences and actual organizational HRM practices affect job satisfaction. Results showed significant difference in HRM preferences between Australian and Hong Kong respondents and these are reflected in the distinct types of HRM practices adopted by construction firms in the two countries. Findings further indicated that the gap between individuals’ preferences and actual organizational HRM practices is associated with job satisfaction. The results support existing mainstream research and highlight the deficiency of the acultural treatment of HRM that is still apparent in construction management literature. An uncritical literature in the area not only hinders theory development but also potentially undermines the ability of construction firms to attract, recruit, and retain scarce talents.

Structure, conduct and the stochastic volatility of food markets: theory and empirics

The relationship between price volatility and competition is examined. Atheoretic, vector auto regressions on farm prices of wheat and retail prices of derivatives (flour, bread, pasta, bulgur and cookies) are compared to results from a dynamic, simultaneous-equations model with theory-based farm-to-retail linkages. Analytical results yield insights about numbers of firms and their impacts on demand- and supply-side multipliers, but the applications to Turkish time series (1988:1-1996:12) yield mixed results.

Life-cycle simulations of shallow frontal waves and the impact of deformation strain

The life-cycle of shallow frontal waves and the impact of deformation strain on their development is investigated using the idealised version of the Met Office non-hydrostatic Unified Model which includes the same physics and dynamics as the operational forecast model. Frontal wave development occurs in two stages; first, a deformation strain is applied to a front and a positive potential vorticity (PV) strip forms, generated by latent heat release in the frontal updraft; second, as the deformation strain is reduced the PV strip breaks up into individual anomalies. The circulations associated with the PV anomalies cause shallow frontal waves to form. The structure of the simulated frontal waves is consistent with the conceptual model of a frontal cyclone. Deeper frontal waves are simulated if the stability of the atmosphere is reduced. Deformation strain rates of different strengths are applied to the PV strip to determine whether a deformation strain threshold exists above which frontal wave development is suppressed. An objective method of frontal wave activity is defined and frontal wave development was found to be suppressed by deformation strain rates $\ge 0.4\times10^{-5}\mbox{s}^{-1}$. This value compares well with observed deformation strain rate thresholds and the analytical solution for the minimum deformation strain rate needed to suppress barotropic frontal wave development. The deformation strain rate threshold is dependent on the strength of the PV strip with strong PV strips able to overcome stronger deformation strain rates (leading to frontal wave development) than weaker PV strips.

Improved arthritic knee health in a pilot RCT of phytotherapy

Although practitioner-prescribed 'western' herbal medicine (phytotherapy) is a popular complementary therapy in the UK, no clinical studies have been reported on patient-orientated outcomes. The objective of this pilot study was to investigate the effects of phytotherapy on symptoms of osteoarthritis of the knee. A previous study of Chinese herbal medicine for the treatment of irritable bowel syndrome, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association,(1) acted as a model in the development of the protocol of this investigation. Twenty adults, previously diagnosed with osteoarthritis of the knee, were recruited from two Inner London GP practices into this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, pilot study carried out in a primary-care setting. All subjects were seen in consultation three times by a herbal practitioner who was blinded to the randomization coding. Each subject was prescribed treatment and given lifestyle advice according to usual practice: continuation of conventional medication where applicable, healthy-eating advice and nutrient supplementation, Individualized herbal medicine was prescribed for each patient, but only dispensed for those randomized to active treatment - the remainder were supplied with a placebo. At baseline and outcome (after ten weeks of treatment), subjects completed a food frequency questionnaire and the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) knee health and Measure Yourself Outcome Profile (MYMOP) wellbeing questionnaires. Subjects completing the study per protocol (n = 14) reported an increased intake of wholegrain foods (p = 0.045) and oily fish (p = 0.039) compared to baseline, but no increase in fruit and vegetables and dairy products intakes. There was no difference in the primary outcome measure of knee health assessed as the difference in the mean response (baseline-week 10) in WOMAC score between the two treatment groups. However, there was, compared with baseline, improvement in the active group (n = 9) for the mean WOMAC stiffness sub-score at week 5 (p = 0.035) and week 10 (p = 0.060) but not in the placebo group (n = 5). Furthermore, for the active, but not the placebo group, the mean WOMAC total and sub-scores all showed clinically significant improvement (>= 20%) in knee symptoms at weeks 5 and 10 compared with baseline. Moreover, the mean MYMOP symptom 2 sub-score, mostly relating to osteoarthritis (OA), showed significant improvement at week 5 (p = 0.02) and week 10 (p = 0.008) compared with baseline for the active, but not for the placebo group. This pilot study showed that herbal medicine prescribed for the individual by a herbal practitioner resulted in improvement of symptoms of OA of the knee.

Interpretation of ambiguity in children: a prospective study of associations with anxiety and parental interpretations

Interpretation of ambiguity is consistently associated with anxiety in children, however, the temporal relationship between interpretation and anxiety remains unclear as do the developmental origins of interpretative biases. This study set out to test a model of the development of interpretative biases in a prospective study of 110 children aged 5–9 years of age. Children and their parents were assessed three times, annually, on measures of anxiety and interpretation of ambiguous scenarios (including, for parents, both their own interpretations and their expectations regarding their child). Three models were constructed to assess associations between parent and child anxiety and threat and distress cognitions and expectancies. The three models were all a reasonable fit of the data, and supported conclusions that: (i) children’s threat and distress cognitions were stable over time and were significantly associated with anxiety, (ii) parents’ threat and distress cognitions and expectancies significantly predicted child threat cognitions at some time points, and (iii) parental anxiety significantly predicted parents cognitions, which predicted parental expectancies at some time points. Parental expectancies were also significantly predicted by child cognitions. The findings varied depending on assessment time point and whether threat or distress cognitions were being considered. The findings support the notion that child and parent cognitive processes, in particular parental expectations, may be a useful target in the treatment or prevention of anxiety disorders in children.

Coupled atmosphere-biophysics-hydrology models for environmental modeling

The formulation and implementation of LEAF-2, the Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Feedback model, which comprises the representation of land–surface processes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is described. LEAF-2 is a prognostic model for the temperature and water content of soil, snow cover, vegetation, and canopy air, and includes turbulent and radiative exchanges between these components and with the atmosphere. Subdivision of a RAMS surface grid cell into multiple areas of distinct land-use types is allowed, with each subgrid area, or patch, containing its own LEAF-2 model, and each patch interacts with the overlying atmospheric column with a weight proportional to its fractional area in the grid cell. A description is also given of TOPMODEL, a land hydrology model that represents surface and subsurface downslope lateral transport of groundwater. Details of the incorporation of a modified form of TOPMODEL into LEAF-2 are presented. Sensitivity tests of the coupled system are presented that demonstrate the potential importance of the patch representation and of lateral water transport in idealized model simulations. Independent studies that have applied LEAF-2 and verified its performance against observational data are cited. Linkage of RAMS and TOPMODEL through LEAF-2 creates a modeling system that can be used to explore the coupled atmosphere–biophysical–hydrologic response to altered climate forcing at local watershed and regional basin scales.

Characterizing intuition in information systems research

The study of intuition is an emerging area of research in psychology, social sciences, and business studies. It is increasingly of interest to the study of management, for example in decision-making as a counterpoint to structured approaches. Recently work has been undertaken to conceptualize a construct for the intuitive nature of technology. However to-date there is no common under-standing of the term intuition in information systems (IS) research. This paper extends the study of intuition in IS research by using exploratory research to cate-gorize the use of the word “intuition” and related terms in papers published in two prominent IS journals over a ten year period. The entire text of MIS Quarterly and Information Systems Research was reviewed for the years 1999 through 2008 using searchable PDF versions of these publications. As far as could be deter-mined, this is the first application of this approach in the analysis of the text of IS academic journals. The use of the word “intuition” and related terms was catego-rized using coding consistent with Grounded Theory. The focus of this research was on the first two stages of Grounded Theory analysis - the development of codes and constructs. Saturation of coding was not reached: an extended review of these publications would be required to enable theory development. Over 400 incidents of the use of “intuition”, and related terms were found in the articles reviewed. The most prominent use of the term of “intuition” was coded as “Intui-tion as Authority” in which intuition was used to validate a research objective or finding; representing approximately 37 per cent of codes assigned. The second most common coding occurred in research articles with mathematical analysis, representing about 19 per cent of the codes assigned, for example where a ma-thematical formulation or result was “intuitive”. The possibly most impactful use of the term “intuition” was “Intuition as Outcome”, representing approximately 7 per cent of all coding, which characterized research results as adding to the intui-tive understanding of a research topic or phenomena. This research contributes to a greater theoretical understanding of intuition enabling insight into the use of intuition, and the eventual development of a theory on the use of intuition in academic IS research publications. It also provides potential benefits to practi-tioners by providing insight into and validation of the use of intuition in IS man-agement. Research directions include the creation of reflective and/or formative constructs for intuition in information systems research.