Modelling complex systems for project planning - A semiotics motivated method

A large and complex IT project may involve multiple organizations and be constrained within a temporal period. An organization is a system comprising of people, activities, processes, information, resources and goals. Understanding and modelling such a project and its interrelationship with relevant organizations are essential for organizational project planning. This paper introduces the problem articulation method (PAM) as a semiotic method for organizational infrastructure modelling. PAM offers a suite of techniques, which enables the articulation of the business, technical and organizational requirements, delivering an infrastructural framework to support the organization. It works by eliciting and formalizing (e. g. processes, activities, relationships, responsibilities, communications, resources, agents, dependencies and constraints) and mapping these abstractions to represent the manifestation of the "actual" organization. Many analysts forgo organizational modelling methods and use localized ad hoc and point solutions, but this is not amenable for organizational infrastructures modelling. A case study of the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) will be used to demonstrate the applicability of PAM, and to examine its relevancy and significance in dealing with the innovation and changes in the organizations.

Goal-refinement appraisal of soft projects (GRASP)

Industrial projects are often complex and burdened with time pressures and a lack of information. The term 'soft-project' used here stands for projects where the ‘what’ and/or the ‘how’ is uncertain, which is often the experience in projects involving software intensive systems developments. This thesis intertwines the disciplines of project management and requirements engineering in a goal-oriented application of the maxim ‘keep all objectives satisfied’. It thus proposes a method for appraising projects. In this method, a goal-oriented analysis establishes a framework with which expert judgements are collected so as to construct a confidence profile in regard to the feasibility and adequacy of the project's planned outputs. It is hoped that this appraisal method will contribute to the activities of project ‘shaping’ and aligning stakeholders’ expectations whilst helping project managers appreciate what parts of their project can be progressed and what parts should be held pending further analysis. This thesis offers the following original contribution: an appreciation of appraisal in the project context; a goal-oriented confidence profiling technique; and: a technique to produce goal-refinement diagrams – referred to as Goal Sketching. Collectively these amount to a method for the ‘Goal Refinement Appraisal of Soft-Projects’ (GRASP). The validity of the GRASP method is shown for two projects. In the first it is used for shaping a business investigation project. This is done in real-time in the project. The second case is a retrospective study of an enterprise IT project. This case tests the effectiveness of forecasting project difficulty from an initial confidence profile.

Steering without Circe : attending to reinforcing loops in social systems

Relating system dynamics to the broad systems movement, the key notion is that reinforcing loops deserve no less attention than balancing loops. Three specific propositions follow. First, since reinforcing loops arise in surprising places, investigations of complex systems must consider their possible existence and potential impact. Second, because the strength of reinforcing loops can be misinferred - we include an example from the field of servomechanisms - computer simulation can be essential. Be it project management, corporate growth or inventory oscillation, simulation helps to assess consequences of reinforcing loops and options for interventions. Third, in social systems the consequences of reinforcing loops are not inevitable. Examples concerning globalization illustrate how difficult it might be to challenge such assumptions. However, system dynamics and ideas from contemporary social theory help to show that even the most complex social systems are, in principle, subject to human influence. In conclusion, by employing these ideas, by attending to reinforcing as well as balancing loops, system dynamics work can improve the understanding of social systems and illuminate our choices when attempting to steer them.

Generic intertextuality in online social activism: the case of the It Gets Better project

The It Gets Better project has been held up as a model of successful social media activism. This article explores how narrators of It Gets Better videos make use of generic intertextuality, strategically combining the canonical narrative genres of the exemplum, the testimony, and the confession in a way that allows them to claim ‘textual authority’ and to make available multiple moral positions for themselves and their listeners. This strategy is further facilitated by the ambiguous participation frameworks associated with digital media, which make it possible for storytellers to tell different kinds of stories to different kinds of listeners at the same time, to simultaneously comfort the victims of anti-gay violence, confront its perpetrators, and elicit sympathy from ‘onlookers’. This analysis highlights the potential of new practices of online storytelling for social activism, and challenges notions that new media are contributing to the demise of common narrative traditions.

The Convective Storm Initiation Project

The Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety of ground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawin-sondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.

Dispersion Experiments in Central London: The 2007 DAPPLE project

In the event of a release of toxic gas in the center of London, the emergency services would need to determine quickly the extent of the area contaminated. The transport of pollutants by turbulent flow within the complex street and building architecture of cities is not straightforward, and we might wonder whether it is at all possible to make a scientifically-reasoned decision. Here we describe recent progress from a major UK project, ‘Dispersion of Air Pollution and its Penetration into the Local Environment’ (DAPPLE, www.dapple.org.uk). In DAPPLE, we focus on the movement of airborne pollutants in cities by developing a greater understanding of atmospheric flow and dispersion within urban street networks. In particular, we carried out full-scale dispersion experiments in central London (UK) during 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 to address the extent of the dispersion of tracers following their release at street level. These measurements complemented previous studies because (i) our focus was on dispersion within the first kilometer from the source, when most of the material was expected to remain within the street network rather than being mixed into the boundary layer aloft, (ii) measurements were made under a wide variety of meteorological conditions, and (iii) central London represents a European, rather than North American, city geometry. Interpretation of the results from the full-scale experiments was supported by extensive numerical and wind tunnel modeling, which allowed more detailed analysis under idealized and controlled conditions. In this article, we review the full-scale DAPPLE methodologies and show early results from the analysis of the 2007 field campaign data.

Experiences with sustainability indicators and stakeholder participation: A case study relating to a 'Blue Plan' project in Malta

The practical application of systemic sustainability analysis (SSA; Bell and Morse, 1999) as applied in-a project instigated and managed by 'Blue Plan', one of the regional activity centres of the Mediterranean Action Plan, is set out and explained in this paper. The context in which SSA was applied and adapted to SPSA (systemic and prospective sustainability analysis). is described in the Mediterranean, primarily in Malta. The SSA process is summarized, its extension and linkage to the prospective approach is described and the comments of stakeholders in the context are added. Some preliminary outcomes are suggested. The pauticular focus of the paper is on the lessons learned from doing SSA/SPSA within a classic blueprint project framework. It is-not assumed that SSA/SPSA is 'finished' or 'definitive'. Rather, we suggest that it is a developing and changing approach that practitioners can adapt and change to meet the specific needs of the circumstances that confront them. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Promoting inclusion: facilitating access to the Silchester 'town life' project

It is becoming increasingly difficult to resource field archaeology outside the developer-funded context. Consequently it is difficult to engage the wider public in understanding the nature of archaeology and in the writing of its history from the study of material and environmental evidence. This paper describes a project funded by the UK's Heritage Lottery Fund designed to increase access by several means to a well-established and long-running archaeological excavation at the Iron Age and Roman Town at Silchester, Hampshire (UK).

An analysis of the management of a public sector project: a systems-based case study

The management of a public sector project is analysed using a model developed from systems theory. Linear responsibility analysis is used to identify the primary and key decision structure of the project and to generate quantitative data regarding differentiation and integration of the operating system, the managing system and the client/project team. The environmental context of the project is identified. Conclusions are drawn regarding the project organization structure's ability to cope with the prevailing environmental conditions. It is found that the complexity of the managing system imposed on the project was unable to achieve this and created serious deficiencies in the outcome of the project.

The influence of project complexity on estimating accuracy

With the rapid development in technology over recent years, construction, in common with many areas of industry, has become increasingly complex. It would, therefore, seem to be important to develop and extend the understanding of complexity so that industry in general and in this case the construction industry can work with greater accuracy and efficiency to provide clients with a better service. This paper aims to generate a definition of complexity and a method for its measurement in order to assess its influence upon the accuracy of the quantity surveying profession in UK new build office construction. Quantitative data came from an analysis of twenty projects of varying size and value and qualitative data came from interviews with professional quantity surveyors. The findings highlight the difficulty in defining and measuring project complexity. The correlation between accuracy and complexity was not straightforward, being subjected to many extraneous variables, particularly the impact of project size. Further research is required to develop a better measure of complexity. This is in order to improve the response of quantity surveyors, so that an appropriate level of effort can be applied to individual projects, permitting greater accuracy and enabling better resource planning within the profession.

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.