Quantifying uncertainty in the simulation of crop-climate processes

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (λ, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966–1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of λ near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Generation of candidate human influenza vaccine strains in cell culture: rehearsing the European response to an H7N1 pandemic threat

Background: Although H5N1 avian influenza viruses pose the most obvious imminent pandemic threat, there have been several recent zoonotic incidents involving transmission of H7 viruses to humans. Vaccines are the primary public health defense against pandemics, but reliance on embryonated chickens eggs to propagate vaccine and logistic problems posed by the use of new technology may slow our ability to respond rapidly in a pandemic situation. Objectives: We sought to generate an H7 candidate vaccine virus suitable for administration to humans whose generation and amplification avoided the use of eggs. Methods: We generated a suitable H7 vaccine virus by reverse genetics. This virus, known as RD3, comprises the internal genes of A/Puerto Rico/8/34 with surface antigens of the highly pathogenic avian strain A/Chicken/Italy/13474/99 (H7N1). The multi-basic amino acid site in the HA gene, associated with high pathogenicity in chickens, was removed. Results: The HA modification did not alter the antigenicity of the virus and the resultant single basic motif was stably retained following several passages in Vero and PER. C6 cells. RD3 was attenuated for growth in embryonated eggs, chickens, and ferrets. RD3 induced an antibody response in infected animals reactive against both the homologous virus and other H7 influenza viruses associated with recent infection by H7 viruses in humans. Conclusions: This is the first report of a candidate H7 vaccine virus for use in humans generated by reverse genetics and propagated entirely in mammalian tissue culture. The vaccine has potential use against a wide range of H7 strains.

Class II phosphoinositide 3-kinase defines a novel signaling pathway in cell migration

The lipid products of phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) are involved in many cellular responses such as proliferation, migration, and survival. Disregulation of PI3K-activated pathways is implicated in different diseases including cancer and diabetes. Among the three classes of PI3Ks, class I is the best characterized, whereas class II has received increasing attention only recently and the precise role of these isoforms is unclear. Similarly, the role of phosphatidylinositol-3-phosphate (PtdIns-3-P) as an intracellular second messenger is only just beginning to be appreciated. Here, we show that lysophosphatidic acid (LPA) stimulates the production of PtdIns-3-P through activation of a class II PI3K (PI3K-C2β). Both PtdIns-3-P and PI3K-C2β are involved in LPA-mediated cell migration. This study is the first identification of PtdIns-3-P and PI3K-C2β as downstream effectors in LPA signaling and demonstration of an intracellular role for a class II PI3K. Defining this novel PI3K-C2β- PtdIns-3-P signaling pathway may help clarify the process of cell migration and may shed new light on PI3K-mediated intracellular events.

Functionalised amyloid fibrils for roles in cell adhesion

We describe experiments designed to explore the possibility of using amyloid fibrils as new nanoscale biomaterials for promoting and exploiting cell adhesion, migration and differentiation in vitro. We created peptides that add the biological cell adhesion sequence (RGD) or a control sequence (RAD) to the C-terminus of an 11-residue peptide corresponding to residues 105-115 of the amyloidogenic protein transthyretin. These peptides readily self-assemble in aqueous solution to form amyloid fibrils, and X-ray fibre diffraction shows that they possess the same strand and sheet spacing in the characteristic cross-beta structure as do fibrils formed by the parent peptide. We report that the fibrils containing the RGD sequence are bioactive and that these fibrils interact specifically with cells via the RGD group displayed on the fibril surface. As the design of such functionalized fibrils can be systematically altered, these findings suggest that it will be possible to generate nanomaterials based on amyloid fibrils that are tailored to promote interactions with a wide variety of cell types. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences in cell morphology, lipid and apo B secretory capacity in caco-2 cells following long term treatment with saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids

The suitability of the caco-2 cell line as a model for studying the long term impact of dietary fatty acids on intestinal lipid handling and chylomicron production was examined. Chronic supplementation of caco-2 cells with palmitic acid (PA) resulted in a lower triacylglycerol secretion than oleic acid (OA). This was coupled with a detrimental effect of PA, but not OA, on transepithelial electrical resistance (TER) measurements, suggesting a loss of structural integrity across the cell monolayer. Addition of OA reversed the adverse effects of PA and stearic acid on TER and increased the ability of cells to synthesise and accumulate lipid, but did not normalise the secretion of lipids by caco-2 cells. Increasing amounts of OA and decreasing amounts of PA in the incubation media markedly improved the ability of cells to synthesise apolipoprotein B and secrete lipids. Real time RT-PCR revealed a down regulation of genes involved in lipoprotein synthesis following PA than OA. Electron microscopy showed adverse effects of PA on cellular morphology consistent with immature enterocytes such as stunted microvilli and poor tight junction formation. In conclusion, previously reported differences in lipoprotein secretion by caco-2 cells supplemented with saturated fatty acids (SFA) and OA may partly reflect early cytotoxic effects of SFA on cellular integrity and function. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of 80K/MARCKS, a specific substrate of protein kinase C, in cell growth and tumour progression

Since its discovery more than a decade ago [Wu et al., 1982; Rozengurt et al., 1983], the 80-87 kDa myristoylated a lanine-rich C-kinase substrate (80K/MARCKS) protein has attracted a great deal of attention from researchers interested in cell growth and tumour progression. However, despite its ubiquitous distribution, a definitive functional role for 80K/MARCKS has not been found. The purpose of this review is to describe the properties, distribution and regulation of 80K/MARCKS and to discuss some of the most recent findings, both from our laboratory and from others, that have suggested a functional role for this protein in modulating cell growth and tumour progression. Furthermore, I will present data from our laboratory that implicates 80K/MARCKS as a novel tumour suppressor in cells of melanocyte origin.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part I: Literature review

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasingly complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I) reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develops conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to building simulation scientists, initiates a dialogue and builds bridges between scientists and engineers, and stimulates future research about a wide range of issues on building environmental systems.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part II: Conceptual frameworks

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasing complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I), published in the previous issue, reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develop conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to (1) building simulation scientists and designers (2) initiating a dialogue between scientists and engineers, and (3) stimulating future research on a wide range of issues involved in designing and managing building environmental systems.

Classifying general nonlinear force laws in cell-based models via the continuum limit

though discrete cell-based frameworks are now commonly used to simulate a whole range of biological phenomena, it is typically not obvious how the numerous different types of model are related to one another, nor which one is most appropriate in a given context. Here we demonstrate how individual cell movement on the discrete scale modeled using nonlinear force laws can be described by nonlinear diffusion coefficients on the continuum scale. A general relationship between nonlinear force laws and their respective diffusion coefficients is derived in one spatial dimension and, subsequently, a range of particular examples is considered. For each case excellent agreement is observed between numerical solutions of the discrete and corresponding continuum models. Three case studies are considered in which we demonstrate how the derived nonlinear diffusion coefficients can be used to (a) relate different discrete models of cell behavior; (b) derive discrete, intercell force laws from previously posed diffusion coefficients, and (c) describe aggregative behavior in discrete simulations.

Pathogenic LRRK2 mutations do not alter gene expression in cell model systems or human brain tissue

Point mutations in LRRK2 cause autosomal dominant Parkinson's disease. Despite extensive efforts to determine the mechanism of cell death in patients with LRRK2 mutations, the aetiology of LRRK2 PD is not well understood. To examine possible alterations in gene expression linked to the presence of LRRK2 mutations, we carried out a case versus control analysis of global gene expression in three systems: fibroblasts isolated from LRRK2 mutation carriers and healthy, non-mutation carrying controls; brain tissue from G2019S mutation carriers and controls; and HEK293 inducible LRRK2 wild type and mutant cell lines. No significant alteration in gene expression was found in these systems following correction for multiple testing. These data suggest that any alterations in basal gene expression in fibroblasts or cell lines containing mutations in LRRK2 are likely to be quantitatively small. This work suggests that LRRK2 is unlikely to play a direct role in modulation of gene expression, although it remains possible that this protein can influence mRNA expression under pathogenic cicumstances.

Interaction between attaching and effacing Escherichia coli serotypes O157:H7 and O26:K60 in cell culture

Ruminants harbour both O157:H7 and non-O157 Attaching Effacing Escherichia coli (AEEC) strains but to date only nonO157 AEEC have been shown to induce attaching effacing lesions in naturally infected animals. However, O157 may induce lesions in deliberate oral inoculation studies and persistence is considered dependent upon the bacterially encoded locus for enterocyte effacement. In concurrent infections in ruminants it is unclear whether non-O157 AEEC contribute either positively or negatively to the persistence of E. coli O157:H7. To investigate this, and prior to animal studies, E. coli O157:H7 NCTC 12900, a non-toxigenic strain that persists in conventionally reared sheep, and non-toxigenic AEEC O26:K60 isolates of sheep origin were tested for adherence to Hep-2 tissue culture alone and in competition one with another. Applied together, both strains adhered in similar numbers but lower than when either was applied separately. Pre-incubation of tissue culture with either one strain reduced significantly (P < 0.05) the extent of adherence of the strain that was applied second. It was particularly noticeable that AEEC O26 when applied first reduced adherence and inhibited microcolony formation, as demonstrated by confocal microscopy, of E. coli 01 57:H7. The possibility that prior colonisation of a ruminant by non-O157 AEEC such as O26 may antagonise O157 colonisation and persistence in ruminants is discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part I: the representation of the MJO

As a major mode of intraseasonal variability, which interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale, the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial source of predictability for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Despite its global significance and comprehensive investigation, improvements in the representation of the MJO in an NWP context remain elusive. However, recent modifications to the model physics in the ECMWF model led to advances in the representation of atmospheric variability and the unprecedented propagation of the MJO signal through the entire integration period. In light of these recent advances, a set of hindcast experiments have been designed to assess the sensitivity of MJO simulation to the formulation of convection. Through the application of established MJO diagnostics, it is shown that the improvements in the representation of the MJO can be directly attributed to the modified convective parametrization. Furthermore, the improvements are attributed to the move from a moisture-convergent- to a relative-humidity-dependent formulation for organized deep entrainment. It is concluded that, in order to understand the physical mechanisms through which a relative-humidity-dependent formulation for entrainment led to an improved simulation of the MJO, a more process-based approach should be taken. T he application of process-based diagnostics t o t he hindcast experiments presented here will be the focus of Part II of this study.

Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: the application of process-based diagnostics

In Part I of this study it was shown that moving from a moisture-convergent- to a relative-humidity-dependent organized entrainment rate in the formulation for deep convection was responsible for significant advances in the simulation of the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the ECMWF model. However, the application of traditional MJO diagnostics were not adequate to understand why changing the control on convection had such a pronounced impact on the representation of the MJO. In this study a set of process-based diagnostics are applied to the hindcast experiments described in Part I to identify the physical mechanisms responsible for the advances in MJO simulation. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmental moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation – moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up, which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the t ransition t o d eep convection. R esults from this study suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the convective heating and the large-scale wave forcing associated with the MJO.

A novel alternative to cryopreservation for the short-term storage of stem cells for use in cell therapy using alginate encapsulation

Efficient transport of stem/progenitor cells without affecting their survival and function is a key factor in any practical cell-based therapy. However, the current approach using liquid nitrogen for the transfer of stem cells requires a short delivery time window is technically challenging and financially expensive. The present study aims to use semipermeable alginate hydrogels (crosslinked by strontium) to encapsulate, store, and release stem cells, to replace the conventional cryopreservation method for the transport of therapeutic cells within world-wide distribution time frame. Human mesenchymal stem cell (hMSC) and mouse embryonic stem cells (mESCs) were successfully stored inside alginate hydrogels for 5 days under ambient conditions in an air-tight environment (sealed cryovial). Cell viability, of the cells extracted from alginate gel, gave 74% (mESC) and 80% (hMSC) survival rates, which compared favorably to cryopreservation. More importantly, the subsequent proliferation rate and detection of common stem cell markers (both in mRNA and protein level) from hMSCs and mESCs retrieved from alginate hydrogels were also comparable to (if not better than) results gained following cryopreservation. In conclusion, this new and simple application of alginate hydrogel encapsulation may offer a cheap and robust alternative to cryopreservation for the transport and storage of stem cells for both clinical and research purposes.