Towards an improved understanding of farmers' behaviour: the integrative agent-centred (IAC) framework

An effective approach to research on farmers' behaviour is based on: i) an explicit and well-motivated behavioural theory; ii) an integrative approach; and iii) understanding feedback processes and dynamics. While current approaches may effectively tackle some of them, they often fail to combine them together. The paper presents the integrative agent-centred (IAC) framework, which aims at filling this gap. It functions in accordance with these three pillars and provides a conceptual structure to understand farmers' behaviour in agricultural systems. The IAC framework is agent-centred and supports the understanding of farmers' behavior consistently with the perspective of agricultural systems as complex social-ecological systems. It combines different behavioural drivers, bridges between micro and macro levels, and depicts a potentially varied model of human agency. The use of the framework in practice is illustrated through two studies on pesticide use among smallholders in Colombia. The examples show how the framework can be implemented to derive policy implications to foster a transition towards more sustainable agricultural practices. The paper finally suggests that the framework can support different research designs for the study of agents' behaviour in agricultural and social-ecological systems.

The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management

A review of the implications of climate change for freshwater resources, based on Chapter 4 of Working Group 2, IPCC.

Prediction of cottonseed longevity

The objective of this work was to determine the viability equation constants for cottonseed and to detect the occurrence and depletion of hardseededness. Three seedlots of Brazilian cultivars IAC-19 and IAC-20 were tested, using 12 moisture content levels, ranging from 2.2 to 21.7% and three storage temperatures, 40, 50 and 65 degrees C. Seed moisture content level was reached from the initial value (around 8.8%) either by rehydration, in a closed container, or by drying in desiccators containing silica gel, both at 20 degrees C. Twelve seed subsamples for each moisture content/temperature treatment were sealed in laminated aluminium-foil packets and stored in incubators at those temperatures, until complete survival curves were obtained. Seed equilibrium relative humidity was recorded. Hardseededness was detected at moisture content levels below 6% and its releasing was achieved either naturally, during storage period, or artificially through seed coat removal. The viability equation quantified the response of seed longevity to storage environment well with K-E = 9.240, C-W = 5.190, C-H = 0.03965 and C-Q = 0.000426. The lower limit estimated for application of this equation at 65 degrees C was 3.6% moisture content.

Soya isoflavone-enriched cereal bars affect markers of endothelial function in postmenopausal women

Soya isoflavones are thought to be cardioprotective due to their structural similarity to oestrogen. In order to investigate the effect of soya isoflavones on markers of endothelial function we conducted a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over study with thirty healthy postmenopausal women. The women consumed cereal bars, with or without soya isoflavones (50 mg/d), for 8 weeks, separated by an 8-week washout period. Systemic arterial complince (SAC), isobaric arterial compliance (IAC), flow-mediated endothelium-dependent vasodilation (FMD) and nitroglycerine-mediated endothelium-independent vasodilation (NMD) were measured at the beginning of the study and after each intervention period. Blood pressure (BP) and plasma concentrations of nitrite and nitrate (NOx) and endothelin-1 (ET-1) were measured at the beginning and end of each intervention period. NMD was 13.4 (sem 2.0) % at baseline and 15.5 (sem 1.1) % after isoflavone treatment compared with 12.4 (sem 1.0) % after placebo treatment (P=0.03). NOx increased from 27.7 (sem 2.7) to 31.1 (sem 3.2) mu m after isoflavones treatment compared with 25.4 (sem 1.5) to 20.4 (sem 1.1) mu m after placebo treatment (P=0.003) and a significant increase in the NOx:ET-1 ratio (P=0.005) was observed after the isoflavone treatment compared with placebo. A significant difference in SAC after the isoflavone and placebo treatment was observed (P=0.04). No significant difference was found in FMD, IAC, BP and ET-1. In conclusion, 8 weeks' consumption of cereals bars enriched with 50 mg soya isoflavones/d increased plasma NOx concentrations and improved endothelium-independent vasodilation in healthy postmenopausal women.

Identifying and investigating pesticide application types to promote a more sustainable pesticide use: the case of smallholders in Boyacá, Colombia

The present paper investigates pesticide application types adopted by smallholder potato producers in the Department of Boyacá , Colombia. In this region, environmental, health and adverse economic effects due to pesticide mis- or over-use respectively have been observed. Firstly, pesticide application types were identified based on input-effectiveness. Secondly, their determinants of adoption were investigated. Finally suggestions were given to develop intervention options for transition towards a more sustainable pesticide use. Three application types were identified for fungicide and insecticide. The types differed in terms of input (intensity of pesticide application), effect (damage control), frequency of application, average quantity applied per application, chemical class, and productivity. Then, the determinants of different pesticide application types were investigated with a multinomial logistic regression approach and applying the integrative agent centred (IAC) framework. The area of the plot, attendance at training sessions and educational and income levels were among the most relevant determinants. The analysis suggested that better pesticide use could be fostered to reduce pesticide-related risks in the region. Intervention options were outlined, which may help in targeting this issue. They aim not only at educating farmers, but to change their social and institutional context, by involving other agents of the agricultural system (i.e. pesticide producers), facilitating new institutional settings (i.e. cooperatives) and targeting social dynamics (i.e. conformity to social norms).

Why don’t pesticide applicators protect themselves? Exploring the use of personal protective equipment among Colombian smallholders

The misuse of personal protective equipment (PPE) during pesticide application was investigated among smallholders in Colombia. The integrative agent-centered (IAC) framework and a logistic regression approach were adopted. The results suggest that the descriptive social norm was significantly influencing PPE use. The following were also important: (1) having experienced pesticide-related health problems; (2) age; (3) the share of pesticide application carried out; and (4) the perception of PPE hindering work. Interestingly, the influence of these factors differed for different pieces of PPE. Since conformity to the social norm is a source of rigidity in the system, behavioral change may take the form of a discontinuous transition. In conclusion, five suggestions for triggering a transition towards more sustainable PPE use are formulated: (1) diversifying targets/tools; (2) addressing structural aspects; (3) sustaining interventions in the long-term; (4) targeting farmers’ learning-by-experience; and (5) targeting PPE use on a collective level.

Exploring behavioural change through an agent-oriented system dynamics model: the use of personal protective equipment among pesticide applicators in Colombia

The misuse of Personal Protective Equipment results in health risk among smallholders in developing countries, and education is often proposed to promote safer practices. However, evidence point to limited effects of education. This paper presents a System Dynamics model which allows the identification of risk-minimizing policies for behavioural change. The model is based on the IAC framework and survey data. It represents farmers' decision-making from an agent-oriented standpoint. The most successful intervention strategy was the one which intervened in the long term, targeted key stocks in the systems and was diversified. However, the results suggest that, under these conditions, no policy is able to trigger a self sustaining behavioural change. Two implementation approaches were suggested by experts. One, based on constant social control, corresponds to a change of the current model's parameters. The other, based on participation, would lead farmers to new thinking, i.e. changes in their decision-making structure.

The implications of improved communications for participatory forest management in Tanzania

Following the 1998 National Forest Policy and Forest Act of 2002, participatory forest management (PFM) is being introduced in Tanzania. PFM has two key objectives: to reduce forest degradation thereby increasing ecosystem services, and to improve the livelihoods of local villagers. A unique data set collected in 2006 suggests that significant challenges remain with respect to communicating the new forest policies if the objectives of PFM are to be achieved. First, villagers as a group are much less well informed than other stakeholders, and their knowledge is often inaccurate. Second, women are less likely than men to have heard of the changes. Third, how PFM will contribute to poverty reduction (a key objective of PFM) is not always clear. Fourth, environmental degradation may not be reduced as much as anticipated – without alternatives sources, villagers often continue to cut trees for charcoal and firewood in the protected forests. Finally, several mismatches in perceptions are identified that could lead to difficulties in implementing PFM.

Thorn-dwelling ants provide antiherbivore defence for camelthorn trees, Vachellia erioloba, in Namibia

Ants are widely employed by plants as an antiherbivore defence. A single host plant can associate with multiple, symbiotic ant species, although usually only a single ant species at a time. Different plant-ant species may vary in the degree to which they defend their host plant. In Kenya, ant–acacia interactions are well studied, but less is known about systems elsewhere in Africa. A southern African species, Vachellia erioloba, is occupied by thorn-dwelling ants from three different genera. Unusually, multiple colonies of all these ants simultaneously and stably inhabit trees. We investigated if the ants on V. erioloba (i) deter insect herbivores; (ii) differ in their effectiveness depending on the identity of the herbivore; and (iii) protect the tree against an important herbivore, the larvae of the lepidopteran Gonometa postica. We show that experimental exclusion of ants leads to greater levels of herbivory on trees. The ants inhabiting V. erioloba are an effective deterrent against hemipteran and coleopteran, but not lepidopteran herbivores. Defensive services do not vary among ant species, but only Crematogaster ants exhibit aggression towards G. postica. This highlights the potential of the V. erioloba–ant mutualism for studying ant–plant interactions that involve multiple, simultaneously resident thorn-dwelling ant species.

Energetics of a symmetric circulation including momentum constraints

A theory of available potential energy (APE) for symmetric circulations, which includes momentum constraints, is presented. The theory is a generalization of the classical theory of APE, which includes only thermal constraints on the circulation. Physically, centrifugal potential energy is included along with gravitational potential energy. The generalization relies on the Hamiltonian structure of the conservative dynamics, although (as with classical APE) it still defines the energetics in a nonconservative framework. It follows that the theory is exact at finite amplitude, has a local form, and can be applied to a variety of fluid models. It is applied here to the f -plane Boussinesq equations. It is shown that, by including momentum constraints, the APE of a symmetrically stable flow is zero, while the energetics of a mechanically driven symmetric circulation properly reflect its causality.

The domain derivative in rough-surface scattering and rigorous estimates for first-order perturbation theory

We investigate Fréchet differentiability of the scattered field with respect to variation in the boundary in the case of time–harmonic acoustic scattering by an unbounded, sound–soft, one–dimensional rough surface. We rigorously prove the differentiability of the scattered field and derive a characterization of the Fréchet derivative as the solution to a Dirichlet boundary value problem. As an application of these results we give rigorous error estimates for first–order perturbation theory, justifying small perturbation methods that have a long history in the engineering literature. As an application of our rigorous estimates we show that a plane acoustic wave incident on a sound–soft rough surface can produce an unbounded scattered field.

Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system

A global river routing scheme coupled to the ECMWF land surface model is implemented and tested within the framework of the Global Soil Wetness Project II, to evaluate the feasibility of modelling global river runoff at a daily time scale. The exercise is designed to provide benchmark river runoff predictions needed to verify the land surface model. Ten years of daily runoff produced by the HTESSEL land surface scheme is input into the TRIP2 river routing scheme in order to generate daily river runoff. These are then compared to river runoff observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in order to evaluate the potential and the limitations. A notable source of inaccuracy is bias between observed and modelled discharges which is not primarily due to the modelling system but instead of to the forcing and quality of observations and seems uncorrelated to the river catchment size. A global sensitivity analysis and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty analysis are applied to the global routing model. The ground water delay parameter is identified as being the most sensitive calibration parameter. Significant uncertainties are found in results, and those due to parameterisation of the routing model are quantified. The difficulty involved in parameterising global river discharge models is discussed. Detailed river runoff simulations are shown for the river Danube, which match well observed river runoff in upstream river transects. Results show that although there are errors in runoff predictions, model results are encouraging and certainly indicative of useful runoff predictions, particularly for the purpose of verifying the land surface scheme hydrologicly. Potential of this modelling system on future applications such as river runoff forecasting and climate impact studies is highlighted. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Leadership identity in a small island developing state: the Jamaican context

While the role of leadership in improving schools is attracting more worldwide attention, there is a need for more research investigating leaders’ experiences in different national contexts. Using focus-group and semi-structured interview data, this paper explores the background, identities and experiences of a small group of Jamaican school leaders who were involved in a leadership development programme. By drawing on the concepts of culture, socialisation and identity, the paper examines how the participants’ journeys of becoming and being school leaders are influenced by national-level societal and cultural issues, experienced at a local level. The findings suggest that in becoming school leaders, the participants perceived that they had a strong sense of agency in attempting to change the social structures within the institutions they lead and in the surrounding local communities, which in turn, they hope, will have a lasting effect on the nation as a whole.

Developing social skills in autistic children through ‘Relaxed Performances’

Families living with autism often feel unable to attend social and cultural events largely due to the fear of their child attracting negative or even aggressive reactions from others. The ‘joint attention’ that is part of the theatre experience however may be a powerful factor in the development of social and communication skills for such children. ‘Relaxed performances’ offer an opportunity for them to access and engage with theatre by making special arrangements designed to reduce tensions associated with visits to public places. Aspects of the production such as the use of lighting and sound effects which may trigger adverse reactions are also adjusted. This paper reports on how one local theatre drew on the findings of a national project to mount a ‘relaxed performance’ of their annual pantomime. It discusses the theatre’s preparations and presents evidence of the impact the event had on local children with autism and their families. The success of both the national and this local project marks a new beginning for improved access to the theatre for an audience that has hitherto felt largely excluded.