Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.

Poly[(2,2 '-bipyridine-kappa N-2,N ')-(mu(2)-dihydrogen phosphato-kappa O-2 : O ')-(mu(2)-hydrogen phosphato-kappa O-2 : O ')-aluminium(III)], Al(2,2 '/bipy)-(HPO4)(H2PO4), a layered inorganic - organic hybrid material

The title compound, [Al(HPO4)(H2PO4)(C10H8N2)]n, consists of AlO4N2 octahedra vertex-linked to H2PO4 and HPO4 tetrahedra to form layers based on a (4,12)- net. The layers stack in an AAA fashion, held in place by pi-pi interactions between 2,2 '-bipyridine molecules coordinated to Al atoms in adjacent layers.

[Ga10S16(NC7H9)4]2-: a hybrid supertetrahedral nanocluster

The synthesis and characterisation of a hybrid supertetrahedral nanocluster, [Ga10S16(NC7H9)4]2−, in which the terminal S2− anions have been replaced by covalently bonded amine molecules, is described.

What is the new medicines use review ‘patient survey’ attempting to capture in the context of existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires and a new conceptual framework?

The community pharmacy service medicines use review (MUR) was introduced in 2005 ‘to improve patient knowledge, concordance and use of medicines’ through a private patient–pharmacist consultation. The MUR presents a fundamental change in community pharmacy service provision. While traditionally pharmacists are dispensers of medicines and providers of medicines advice, and patients as recipients, the MUR considers pharmacists providing consultation-type activities and patients as active participants. The MUR facilitates a two-way discussion about medicines use. Traditional patient–pharmacist behaviours transform into a new set of behaviours involving the booking of appointments, consultation processes and form completion, and the physical environment of the patient–pharmacist interaction moves from the traditional setting of the dispensary and medicines counter to a private consultation room. Thus, the new service challenges traditional identities and behaviours of the patient and the pharmacist as well as the environment in which the interaction takes place. In 2008, the UK government concluded there is at present too much emphasis on the quantity of MURs rather than on their quality.[1] A number of plans to remedy the perceived imbalance included a suggestion to reward ‘health outcomes’ achieved, with calls for a more focussed and scientific approach to the evaluation of pharmacy services using outcomes research. Specifically, the UK government set out the main principal research areas for the evaluation of pharmacy services to include ‘patient and public perceptions and satisfaction’as well as ‘impact on care and outcomes’. A limited number of ‘patient satisfaction with pharmacy services’ type questionnaires are available, of varying quality, measuring dimensions relating to pharmacists’ technical competence, behavioural impressions and general satisfaction. For example, an often cited paper by Larson[2] uses two factors to measure satisfaction, namely ‘friendly explanation’ and ‘managing therapy’; the factors are highly interrelated and the questions somewhat awkwardly phrased, but more importantly, we believe the questionnaire excludes some specific domains unique to the MUR. By conducting patient interviews with recent MUR recipients, we have been working to identify relevant concepts and develop a conceptual framework to inform item development for a Patient Reported Outcome Measure questionnaire bespoke to the MUR. We note with interest the recent launch of a multidisciplinary audit template by the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (RPSGB) in an attempt to review the effectiveness of MURs and improve their quality.[3] This template includes an MUR ‘patient survey’. We will discuss this ‘patient survey’ in light of our work and existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires, outlining a new conceptual framework as a basis for measuring patient satisfaction with the MUR. Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the NHS Surrey Research Ethics Committee on 2 June 2008. References 1. Department of Health (2008). Pharmacy in England: Building on Strengths – Delivering the Future. London: HMSO. www. official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm73/7341/7341.pdf (accessed 29 September 2009). 2. Larson LN et al. Patient satisfaction with pharmaceutical care: update of a validated instrument. JAmPharmAssoc 2002; 42: 44–50. 3. Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (2009). Pharmacy Medicines Use Review – Patient Audit. London: RPSGB. http:// qi4pd.org.uk/index.php/Medicines-Use-Review-Patient-Audit. html (accessed 29 September 2009).

Experimental verification of suction sampler capture efficiency in grasslands of differing vegetation height and structure

1. Suction sampling is a popular method for the collection of quantitative data on grassland invertebrate populations, although there have been no detailed studies into the effectiveness of the method. 2. We investigate the effect of effort (duration and number of suction samples) and sward height on the efficiency of suction sampling of grassland beetle, true bug, planthopper and spider Populations. We also compare Suction sampling with an absolute sampling method based on the destructive removal of turfs. 3. Sampling for durations of 16 seconds was sufficient to collect 90% of all individuals and species of grassland beetles, with less time required for the true bugs, spiders and planthoppers. The number of samples required to collect 90% of the species was more variable, although in general 55 sub-samples was sufficient for all groups, except the true bugs. Increasing sward height had a negative effect on the capture efficiency of suction sampling. 4. The assemblage structure of beetles, planthoppers and spiders was independent of the sampling method (suction or absolute) used. 5. Synthesis and applications. In contrast to other sampling methods used in grassland habitats (e.g. sweep netting or pitfall trapping), suction sampling is an effective quantitative tool for the measurement of invertebrate diversity and assemblage structure providing sward height is included as a covariate. The effective sampling of beetles, true bugs, planthoppers and spiders altogether requires a minimum sampling effort of 110 sub-samples of duration of 16 seconds. Such sampling intensities can be adjusted depending on the taxa sampled, and we provide information to minimize sampling problems associated with this versatile technique. Suction sampling should remain an important component in the toolbox of experimental techniques used during both experimental and management sampling regimes within agroecosystems, grasslands or other low-lying vegetation types.

A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Seston capture by Hydropsyche siltalai and the accuracy of capture efficiency estimates

1. Suspension feeding by caseless caddisfly larvae (Trichoptera) constitutes a major pathway for energy flow, and strongly influences productivity, in streams and rivers. 2. Consideration of the impact of these animals on lotic ecosystems has been strongly influenced by a single study investigating the efficiency of particle capture of nets built by one species of hydropsychid caddisfly. 3. Using water sampling techniques at appropriate spatial scales, and taking greater consideration of local hydrodynamics than previously, we examined the size-frequency distribution of particles captured by the nets of Hydropsyche siltalai. Our results confirm that capture nets are selective in terms of particle size, and in addition suggest that this selectivity is for particles likely to provide the most energy. 4. By incorporating estimates of flow diversion around the nets of caseless caddisfly larvae, we show that capture efficiency (CE) is considerably higher than previously estimated, and conclude that more consideration of local hydrodynamics is needed to evaluate the efficiency of particle capture. 5. We use our results to postulate a mechanistic explanation for a recent example of interspecific facilitation, whereby a reduction of near-bed velocities seen in single species monocultures leads to increased capture rates and local depletion of seston within the region of reduced velocity.

Thermoselective phase property of silica tethered with fluorinated chains for controlled 'release' and 'capture' of catalytic fluorous tin species

The temperature dependent mixing of organic and fluorous phases is one of the key principals of fluorous biphasic systems (FBS). Given the high cost of the perfluorous solvents and their impacts to the environment, it is apparent that elimination of these solvents in bulk quantity in the FBS is advantageous. We report for the first time, the surface coverage of silica with a fluorous solvent like material that traps (at ambient temperatures) and releases (at elevated temperatures) a fluorous tin bromide in organic solvent. Here, we demonstrate the catalytic utilisation of this species for the hydrocyclisation of 6-bromo-1-hexene with NaBH4. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Pervaporation dehydration of isopropyl alcohol with NaY zeolite incorvorated hybrid membranes

With a solution technique, NaY zeolite incorporated, tetraethylorthosilicate-crosslinked poly(vinyl alcohol) membranes were prepared. The resulting membranes were tested for their ability to separate isopropyl alcohol/water mixtures by pervaporation in the temperature range of 30-50 degrees C. The effects of the zeolite content and feed composition on the pervaporation performance of the membranes were investigated. The experimental results demonstrated that both flux and selectivity increased simultaneously with increasing zeolite content in the membranes. This was explained on the basis of the enhancement of hydrophilicity, selective adsorption, and establishment of a molecular sieving action attributed to the creation of pores in the membrane matrix. The membrane containing 15 mass % zeolite exhibited the highest separation selectivity of 3991 with a flux of 5.39 X 10(-2) kg/m(2) h with 10 mass % water in the feed at 30 degrees C. The total flux and flux of water were close to each other for almost all the studied membranes, and this suggested that the membranes could be used effectively to break the azeotropic point of water/isopropyl alcohol mixtures to remove a small amount of water from isopropyl alcohol. From the temperature-dependent diffusion and permeation values, the Arrhenius activation parameters were estimated. The activation energy values obtained for water were significantly lower than those for isopropyl alcohol, and this suggested that the developed membranes had a higher separation efficiency for water/isopropyl alcohol systems. The activation energy values for total permeation and water permeation were found to be almost the same for all the membranes, and this signified that coupled transport was minimal because of the highly selective nature of the membranes. Positive heat of sorption values were observed in all the membranes, and this suggested that Henry's mode of sorption was predominant. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, lnc.

DNA cleavage and antitumour activity of platinum(II) and copper(II) compounds derived from 4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethyl)aminophenol: spectroscopic, electrochemical and biological investigation

The reaction of the redox-active ligand, Hpyramol (4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethyl)aminophenol) with K2PtCl4 yields monofunctional square-planar [Pt(pyrimol)Cl], PtL-Cl, which was structurally characterised by single-crystal X-ray diffraction and NMR spectroscopy. This compound unexpectedly cleaves supercoiled double-stranded DNA stoichiometrically and oxidatively, in a non-specific manner without any external reductant added, under physiological conditions. Spectro-electrochemical investigations of PtL-Cl were carried out in comparison with the analogue CuL-Cl as a reference compound. The results support a phenolate oxidation, generating a phenoxyl radical responsible for the ligand-based DNA cleavage property of the title compounds. Time-dependent in vitro cytotoxicity assays were performed with both PtL-Cl and CuL-Cl in various cancer cell lines. The compound CuL-Cl overcomes cisplatin-resistance in ovarian carcinoma and mouse leukaemia cell lines, with additional activity in some other cells. The platinum analogue, PtL-Cl also inhibits cell-proliferation selectively. Additionally, cellular-uptake studies performed for both compounds in ovarian carcinoma cell lines showed that significant amounts of Pt and Cu were accumulated in the A2780 and A2780R cancer cells. The conformational and structural changes induced by PtL-Cl and CuL-Cl on calf thymus DNA and phi X174 supercoiled phage DNA at ambient conditions were followed by electrophoretic mobility assay and circular dichroism spectroscopy. The compounds induce extensive DNA degradation and unwinding, along with formation of a monoadduct at the DNA minor groove. Thus, hybrid effects of metal-centre variation, multiple DNA-binding modes and ligand-based redox activity towards cancer cell-growth inhibition have been demonstrated. Finally, reactions of PtL-Cl with DNA model bases (9-Ethylguanine and 5'-GMP) followed by NMR and MS showed slow binding at Guanine-N7 and for the double stranded self complimentary oligonucleotide d(GTCGAC)(2) in the minor groove.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

Synthesis, x-ray structure and anion binding properties of a cryptand-like hybrid calixpyrrole

The novel cryptand in/out-3, containing two tripyrrolemethane units briged by three 1,3- diisopropylidenbenzene arms was readily synthesized by a convergent three-step synthesis. It binds fluoride by inclusion with excellent selectivity with respect to a number of other tested anions. The structure of the free receptor and that of its fluoride complex were investigated in solution by NMR spectroscopy. The solid state X-ray structure of the free cryptand 3 was also determined.