North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Soy-isoflavone-enriched foods and markers of lipid and glucose metabolism in postmenopausal women: interactions with genotype and equol production

Background: The hypocholesterolemic effects of soy foods are well established, and it has been suggested that isoflavones are responsible for this effect. However, beneficial effects of isolated isoflavones on lipid biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk have not yet been shown. Objective: The objective was to investigate the effects of isolated soy isoflavones on metabolic biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk, including plasma total, HDL, and LDL cholesterol; triacylglycerols; lipoprotein(a); the percentage of small dense LDL; glucose; nonesterified fatty acids; insulin; and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. Differences with respect to single nucleotide polymorphisms in selected genes [ie, estrogen receptor a (Xbal and PvuII), estrogen receptor beta (AluI), and estrogen receptor beta(cx) (Tsp5091), endothelial nitric oxide synthase (Glu298Asp), apolipoprotein E (Apo E2, E3, and E4), cholesteryl ester transfer protein (TaqIB), and leptin receptor (Gln223Arg)] and with respect to equol production were investigated. Design: Healthy postmenopausal women (n = 117) participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover dietary intervention trial. Isoflavone-enriched (genistein-to-daidzein ratio of 2: 1; 50 mg/d) or placebo cereal bars were consumed for 8 wk, with a wash-out period of 8 wk before the crossover. Results: Isoflavones did not have a significant beneficial effect on plasma concentrations of lipids, glucose, or insulin. A significant difference between the responses of HDL cholesterol to isoflavones and to placebo was found with estrogen receptor 0(cx) Tsp5091 genotype AA, but not GG or GA. Conclusions: Isoflavone supplementation, when provided in the form and dose used in this study, had no effect on lipid or other metabolic biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk in postmenopausal women but may increase HDL cholesterol in an estrogen receptor P gene-polymorphic subgroup.

Gene-nutrient interactions in the metabolic syndrome: single nucleotide polymorphisms in ADIPOQ and ADIPOR1 interact with plasma saturated fatty acids to modulate insulin resistance

Background: Progression of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is determined by genetic and environmental factors. Gene-environment interactions may be important in modulating the susceptibility to the development of MetS traits. Objective: Gene-nutrient interactions were examined in MetS subjects to determine interactions between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the adiponectin gene (ADIPOQ) and its receptors (ADIPOR1 and ADIPOR2) and plasma fatty acid composition and their effects on MetS characteristics. Design: Plasma fatty acid composition, insulin sensitivity, plasma adiponectin and lipid concentrations, and ADIPOQ, ADIPOR1, and ADIPOR2 SNP genotypes were determined in a cross-sectional analysis of 451 subjects with the MetS who participated in the LIPGENE (Diet, Genomics, and the Metabolic Syndrome: an Integrated Nutrition, Agro-food, Social, and Economic Analysis) dietary intervention study and were repeated in 1754 subjects from the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX (SUpplementation en VItamines et Mineraux AntioXydants) case-control study (http://www.ucd.ie/lipgene). Results: Single SNP effects were detected in the cohort. Triacylglycerols, nonesterified fatty acids, and waist circumference were significantly different between genotypes for 2 SNPs (rs266729 in ADIPOQ and rs10920533 in ADIPOR1). Minor allele homozygotes for both of these SNPs were identified as having degrees of insulin resistance, as measured by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, that were highly responsive to differences in plasma saturated fatty acids (SFAs). The SFA-dependent association between ADIPOR1 rs10920533 and insulin resistance was replicated in cases with MetS from a separate independent study, which was an association not present in controls. Conclusions: A reduction in plasma SFAs could be expected to lower insulin resistance in MetS subjects who are minor allele carriers of rs266729 in ADIPOQ and rs10920533 in ADIPOR1. Personalized dietary advice to decrease SFA consumption in these individuals may be recommended as a possible therapeutic measure to improve insulin sensitivity. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.

Serum vitamin D concentration does not predict insulin action or secretion in European subjects with the metabolic syndrome

OBJECTIVE To investigate the relation between serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and insulin action and secretion. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In a cross-sectional study of 446 Pan-European subjects with the metabolic syndrome, insulin action and secretion were assessed by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) indexes and intravenous glucose tolerance test to calculate acute insulin response, insulin sensitivity, and disposition index. Serum 25(OH)D was measured by high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. RESULTS The 25(OH)D3 concentration was 57.1 ± 26.0 nmol/l (mean ± SD), and only 20% of the subjects had 25(OH)D3 levels ≥75 nmol/l. In multiple linear analyses, 25(OH)D3 concentrations were not associated with parameters of insulin action or secretion after adjustment for BMI and other covariates. CONCLUSIONS In a large sample of subjects with the metabolic syndrome, serum concentrations of 25(OH)D3 did not predict insulin action or secretion. Clear evidence that D vitamin status directly influences insulin secretion or action is still lacking.

Calpain-10 interacts with plasma saturated fatty acid concentrations to influence insulin resistance in individuals with the metabolic syndrome

Background: Calpain-10 protein (intracellular Ca2+-dependent cysteine protease) may play a role in glucose metabolism, pancreatic β cell function, and regulation of thermogenesis. Several CAPN10 polymorphic sites have been studied for their potential use as risk markers for type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Fatty acids are key metabolic regulators that may interact with genetic factors and influence glucose metabolism. Objective: The objective was to examine whether the genetic variability at the CAPN10 gene locus is associated with the degree of insulin resistance and plasma fatty acid concentrations in subjects with MetS. Design: The insulin sensitivity index, glucose effectiveness, insulin resistance [homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)], insulin secretion (disposition index, acute insulin response, and HOMA of β cell function), plasma fatty acid composition, and 5 CAPN10 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were determined in a cross-sectional analysis of 452 subjects with MetS participating in the LIPGENE dietary intervention cohort. Results: The rs2953171 SNP interacted with plasma total saturated fatty acid (SFA) concentrations, which were significantly associated with insulin sensitivity (P < 0.031 for fasting insulin, P < 0.028 for HOMA-IR, and P < 0.012 for glucose effectiveness). The G/G genotype was associated with lower fasting insulin concentrations, lower HOMA-IR, and higher glucose effectiveness in subjects with low SFA concentrations (below the median) than in subjects with the minor A allele (G/A and A/A). In contrast, subjects with the G/G allele with the highest SFA concentrations (above the median) had higher fasting insulin and HOMA-IR values and lower glucose effectiveness than did subjects with the A allele. Conclusion: The rs2953171 polymorphism at the CAPN10 gene locus may influence insulin sensitivity by interacting with the plasma fatty acid composition in subjects with MetS. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00429195.

Glucokinase Regulatory Protein genetic variant interacts with omega-3 PUFA to influence insulin resistance and inflammation in metabolic syndrome

Glucokinase Regulatory Protein (GCKR) plays a central role regulating both hepatic triglyceride and glucose metabolism. Fatty acids are key metabolic regulators, which interact with genetic factors and influence glucose metabolism and other metabolic traits. Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) have been of considerable interest, due to their potential to reduce metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk. Objective To examine whether genetic variability at the GCKR gene locus was associated with the degree of insulin resistance, plasma concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) and n-3 PUFA in MetS subjects. Design Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), HOMA-B, plasma concentrations of C-peptide, CRP, fatty acid composition and the GCKR rs1260326-P446L polymorphism, were determined in a cross-sectional analysis of 379 subjects with MetS participating in the LIPGENE dietary cohort. Results Among subjects with n-3 PUFA levels below the population median, carriers of the common C/C genotype had higher plasma concentrations of fasting insulin (P = 0.019), C-peptide (P = 0.004), HOMA-IR (P = 0.008) and CRP (P = 0.032) as compared with subjects carrying the minor T-allele (Leu446). In contrast, homozygous C/C carriers with n-3 PUFA levels above the median showed lower plasma concentrations of fasting insulin, peptide C, HOMA-IR and CRP, as compared with individuals with the T-allele. Conclusions We have demonstrated a significant interaction between the GCKR rs1260326-P446L polymorphism and plasma n-3 PUFA levels modulating insulin resistance and inflammatory markers in MetS subjects. Further studies are needed to confirm this gene-diet interaction in the general population and whether targeted dietary recommendations can prevent MetS in genetically susceptible individuals.

Insight into the prebiotic concept: lessons from an exploratory, double blind intervention study with inulin-type fructans in obese women

Objective To highlight the contribution of the gut microbiota to the modulation of host metabolism by dietary inulin-type fructans (ITF prebiotics) in obese women. Methods A double blind, placebo controlled, intervention study was performed with 30 obese women treated with ITF prebiotics (inulin/oligofructose 50/50 mix; n=15) or placebo (maltodextrin; n=15) for 3 months (16 g/day). Blood, faeces and urine sampling, oral glucose tolerance test, homeostasis model assessment and impedancemetry were performed before and after treatment. The gut microbial composition in faeces was analysed by phylogenetic microarray and qPCR analysis of 16S rDNA. Plasma and urine metabolic profiles were analysed by 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Results Treatment with ITF prebiotics, but not the placebo, led to an increase in Bifidobacterium and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii; both bacteria negatively correlated with serum lipopolysaccharide levels. ITF prebiotics also decreased Bacteroides intestinalis, Bacteroides vulgatus and Propionibacterium, an effect associated with a slight decrease in fat mass and with plasma lactate and phosphatidylcholine levels. No clear treatment clustering could be detected for gut microbial analysis or plasma and urine metabolomic profile analyses. However, ITF prebiotics led to subtle changes in the gut microbiota that may importantly impact on several key metabolites implicated in obesity and/or diabetes. Conclusions ITF prebiotics selectively changed the gut microbiota composition in obese women, leading to modest changes in host metabolism, as suggested by the correlation between some bacterial species and metabolic endotoxaemia or metabolomic signatures.

Insulin resistance determines a differential response to changes in dietary fat modification on metabolic syndrome risk factors: the LIPGENE study

Background: Previous data support the benefits of reducing dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) on insulin resistance (IR) and other metabolic risk factors. However, whether the IR status of those suffering from metabolic syndrome (MetS) affects this response is not established. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine whether the degree of IR influences the effect of substituting high-saturated fatty acid (HSFA) diets by isoenergetic alterations in the quality and quantity of dietary fat on MetS risk factors. DESIGN: In this single-blind, parallel, controlled, dietary intervention study, MetS subjects (n = 472) from 8 European countries classified by different IR levels according to homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were randomly assigned to 4 diets: an HSFA diet; a high-monounsaturated fatty acid (HMUFA) diet; a low-fat, high-complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diet supplemented with long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (1.2 g/d); or an LFHCC diet supplemented with placebo for 12 wk (control). Anthropometric, lipid, inflammatory, and IR markers were determined. RESULTS: Insulin-resistant MetS subjects with the highest HOMA-IR improved IR, with reduced insulin and HOMA-IR concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and LFHCC n-3 diets (P < 0.05). In contrast, subjects with lower HOMA-IR showed reduced body mass index and waist circumference after consumption of the LFHCC control and LFHCC n-3 diets and increased HDL cholesterol concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and HSFA diets (P < 0.05). MetS subjects with a low to medium HOMA-IR exhibited reduced blood pressure, triglyceride, and LDL cholesterol levels after the LFHCC n-3 diet and increased apolipoprotein A-I concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and HSFA diets (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Insulin-resistant MetS subjects with more metabolic complications responded differently to dietary fat modification, being more susceptible to a health effect from the substitution of SFAs in the HMUFA and LFHCC n-3 diets. Conversely, MetS subjects without IR may be more sensitive to the detrimental effects of HSFA intake. The metabolic phenotype of subjects clearly determines response to the quantity and quality of dietary fat on MetS risk factors, which suggests that targeted and personalized dietary therapies may be of value for its different metabolic features.

Uncoupling protein 2 and 3 gene polymorphisms and their association with type 2 diabetes in asian indians

BACKGROUND: this study examined the association of -866G/A, Ala55Val, 45bpI/D, and -55C/T polymorphisms at the uncoupling protein (UCP) 3-2 loci with type 2 diabetes in Asian Indians. METHODS: a case-control study was performed among 1,406 unrelated subjects (487 with type 2 diabetes and 919 normal glucose-tolerant [NGT]), chosen from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study, an ongoing population-based study in Southern India. The polymorphisms were genotyped using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism and direct sequencing. Haplotype frequencies were estimated using an expectation-maximization algorithm. Linkage disequilibrium was estimated from the estimates of haplotypic frequencies. RESULTS: the genotype (P = 0.00006) and the allele (P = 0.00007) frequencies of Ala55Val of the UCP2 gene showed a significant protective effect against the development of type 2 diabetes. The odds ratios (adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index) for diabetes for individuals carrying Ala/Val was 0.72, and that for individuals carrying Val/Val was 0.37. Homeostasis insulin resistance model assessment and 2-h plasma glucose were significantly lower among Val-allele carriers compared to the Ala/Ala genotype within the NGT group. The genotype (P = 0.02) and the allele (P = 0.002) frequencies of -55C/T of the UCP3 gene showed a significant protective effect against the development of diabetes. The odds ratio for diabetes for individuals carrying CT was 0.79, and that for individuals carrying TT was 0.61. The haplotype analyses further confirmed the association of Ala55Val with diabetes, where the haplotypes carrying the Ala allele were significantly higher in the cases compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS: Ala55Val and -55C/T polymorphisms at the UCP3-2 loci are associated with a significantly reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Asian Indians.

Opposing effects of cis-9,trans-11 and trans-10,cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid on blood lipids in healthy humans

Background: Conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) is reported to have weight-reducing and antiatherogenic properties when fed to laboratory animals. However, the effects of CLA on human health and, in particular, the effects of individual CLA isomers are unclear. Objective: This study investigated the effects of 3 doses of highly enriched cis-9,trans-11 (0.59, 1.19, and 2.38 g/d) or trans-10,cis-12 (0.63, 1.26, and 2.52 g/d) CLA preparations on body composition, blood lipid profile, and markers of insulin resistance in healthy men. Design: Healthy men consumed 1, 2, and 4 capsules sequentially, containing either 80% cis-9,trans-11 CLA or 80% trans-10,cis-12 CLA for consecutive 8-wk periods. This phase was followed by a 6-wk washout and a crossover to the other isomer. Results: Body composition was not significantly affected by either isomer of CLA. Mean plasma triacylglycerol concentration was higher during supplementation with trans-10,cis-12 CLA than during that with cis-9,trans-11 CLA, although there was no influence of dose. There were significant effects of both isomer and dose on plasma total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol concentrations but not on HDL-cholesterol concentration. The ratios of LDL to HDL cholesterol and of total to HDL cholesterol were higher during supplementation with trans-10,cis-12 CLA than during that with cis-9,trans-11 CLA. CLA supplementation had no significant effect on plasma insulin concentration, homeostasis model for insulin resistance, or revised quantitative insulin sensitivity check index. Conclusion: Divergent effects of cis-9,trans-11 CLA and trans10,cis-12 CLA appear on the blood lipid profile in healthy humans: trans-10,cis-12 CLA increases LDL:HDL cholesterol and total:HDL cholesterol, whereas cis-9,trans-11 CLA decreases them.

Regularized logistic models for probabilistic forecasting and diagnostics

Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert dynamical forecast information (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts. A logistic model is obtained by setting the logarithmic odds ratio equal to a linear combination of the inputs. As with any statistical model, logistic models will suffer from overfitting if the number of inputs is comparable to the number of forecast instances. Computational approaches to avoid overfitting by regularization are discussed, and efficient techniques for model assessment and selection are presented. A logit version of the lasso (originally a linear regression technique), is discussed. In lasso models, less important inputs are identified and the corresponding coefficient is set to zero, providing an efficient and automatic model reduction procedure. For the same reason, lasso models are particularly appealing for diagnostic purposes.

Implications of event attribution for loss and damage policy

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to deal with loss and damage associated with climate change impacts, including extreme events, in developing countries. It is not yet known whether events will need to be attributed to anthropogenic climate change to be considered under the WIM. Attribution is possible for some extreme events- a climate model assessment can estimate how greenhouse gas emissions have affected the likelihood of their occurrence. Dialogue between scientists and stakeholders is required to establish whether, and how, this science could play a role in the WIM.

Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models