Describing seasonal variability in the distribution of daily effective temperatures for 1985-2009 compared to 1904-1984 for De Bilt, Holland

This paper proposes a method for describing the distribution of observed temperatures on any day of the year such that the distribution and summary statistics of interest derived from the distribution vary smoothly through the year. The method removes the noise inherent in calculating summary statistics directly from the data thus easing comparisons of distributions and summary statistics between different periods. The method is demonstrated using daily effective temperatures (DET) derived from observations of temperature and wind speed at De Bilt, Holland. Distributions and summary statistics are obtained from 1985 to 2009 and compared to the period 1904–1984. A two-stage process first obtains parameters of a theoretical probability distribution, in this case the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, which describes the distribution of DET on any day of the year. Second, linear models describe seasonal variation in the parameters. Model predictions provide parameters of the GEV distribution, and therefore summary statistics, that vary smoothly through the year. There is evidence of an increasing mean temperature, a decrease in the variability in temperatures mainly in the winter and more positive skew, more warm days, in the summer. In the winter, the 2% point, the value below which 2% of observations are expected to fall, has risen by 1.2 °C, in the summer the 98% point has risen by 0.8 °C. Medians have risen by 1.1 and 0.9 °C in winter and summer, respectively. The method can be used to describe distributions of future climate projections and other climate variables. Further extensions to the methodology are suggested.

How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?

Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations.

Correlating Bayesian date estimates with climatic events and domestication using a bovine case study

The tribe Bovini contains a number of commercially and culturally important species, such as cattle. Understanding their evolutionary time scale is important for distinguishing between post-glacial and domestication-associated population expansions, but estimates of bovine divergence times have been hindered by a lack of reliable calibration points. We present a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of 481 mitochondrial D-loop sequences, including 228 radiocarbon-dated ancient DNA sequences, using a multi-demographic coalescent model. By employing the radiocarbon dates as internal calibrations, we co-estimate the bovine phylogeny and divergence times in a relaxed-clock framework. The analysis yields evidence for significant population expansions in both taurine and zebu cattle, European aurochs and yak clades. The divergence age estimates support domestication-associated expansion times (less than 12 kyr) for the major haplogroups of cattle. We compare the molecular and palaeontological estimates for the Bison-Bos divergence.

Nutrient Imbalances in Agricultural Development

Nutrient cycles link agricultural systems to their societies and surroundings; inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus in particular are essential for high crop yields, but downstream and downwind losses of these same nutrients diminish environmental quality and human well-being. Agricultural nutrient balances differ substantially with economic development, from inputs that are inadequate to maintain soil fertility in parts of many developing countries, particularly those of sub-Saharan Africa, to excessive and environmentally damaging surpluses in many developed and rapidly growing economies. National and/or regional policies contribute to patterns of nutrient use and their environmental consequences in all of these situations. Solutions to the nutrient challenges that face global agriculture can be informed by analyses of trajectories of change within, as well as across, agricultural systems.

Endgame table testing of studies - 1

The van der Heijden Studies Database has been reviewed to identify 'Draw Studies' with sub-7-man positions in the main line which are not draws. The data-mining method is described. Some 1,500 studies were faulted, 700 for the first time: 14 of the more interesting faults are highlighted and discussed.

Endgame table testing of studies - II

The van der Heijden Studies Database (Version III) has been reviewed to identify 'Win Studies' with sub-7-man positions in the main line which are not wins for White. Some studies were faulted, A number for the first time: 21 of the more interesting escapes by Black are highlighted, themed and discussed.

Vibration-rotation spectra of monofluoroacetylene: 1700 to 7500 cm−1

High-resolution vibration-rotation spectra of monofluoroacetylene are reported for many bands in the region 1700 to 7500 cm−1. The spectra were observed on Nicolet 7199 and Bruker IFS 120 Fourier spectrometers, with resolutions of about 0.06 and 0.003 cm−1, respectively. About 130 bands have been observed in this region, of which about 80 have been rotationally analyzed. The assignment of vibrational labels to the higher energy levels is complicated by the effects of strong Fermi resonances, and many weak localized rotational resonances are observed.

Vibrational overtone spectra of monofluoroacetylene: a preliminary report

High-resolution infrared and near-infrared spectra have been observed for more than 80 overtone bands of the HCCF molecule, including two CH stretching overtones in the visible region. Many of these have been analysed, and many more are in the course of analysis and will be reported later. All fundamentals have now been rotationally analysed and the equilibrium rotational constant determined. These data provide a testing ground for anharmonic force-field analyses, and they are discussed briefly in this connection.

Vibrationally mediated photodissociation of nitrous acid

Hitherto unobserved overtone and combination bands of nitrous acid have been investigated by Fourier-transform infrared absorption spectroscopy and through the resonance enhancements they provide in the two-photon excition spectrum for forming OH(X) photofragments. Analysis of the band profiles associated with the second and third O—H stretching overtones of trans-HONO, and of the energy disposal into the OH(X) fragments resulting from two-photon dissociation mediated by these overtone levels, provide some clues as to the mechanism for intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR) within these vibrationally excited molecules. The work serves to highlight further the extreme sensitivity of vibrationally mediated photodissociation (VMP) as a means of revealing weak O—H stretching overtones, even in situations (as here) where the species of interest is but a minor constituent of an equilibrium mixture.

Perturbations in the infrared spectrum of monofluoroacetylene, and their relationship to intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution

Several high-order vibration-rotation perturbations in the high-resolution infrared spectrum of monofluoroacetylene, HCCF, are assigned and analyzed in detail. They result in avoided crossings in the rotational structure of several bands, and precise values for the effective high-order terms in the Hamiltonian have been determined. The significance of these results for intramolecular vibrational redistribution is discussed.