Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

High resolution surface wind fields covering the global ocean, estimated from remotely sensed wind data and ECMWF wind analyses, have been available since 2005 with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees in longitude and latitude, and a temporal resolution of 6h. Their quality is investigated through various comparisons with surface wind vectors from 190 buoys moored in various oceanic basins, from research vessels and from QuikSCAT scatterometer data taken during 2005-2006. The NCEP/NCAR and NCDC blended wind products are also considered. The comparisons performed during January-December 2005 show that speeds and directions compare well to in-situ observations, including from moored buoys and ships, as well as to the remotely sensed data. The root-mean-squared differences of the wind speed and direction for the new blended wind data are lower than 2m/s and 30 degrees, respectively. These values are similar to those estimated in the comparisons of hourly buoy measurements and QuickSCAT near real time retrievals. At global scale, it is found that the new products compare well with the wind speed and wind vector components observed by QuikSCAT. No significant dependencies on the QuikSCAT wind speed or on the oceanic region considered are evident.Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

Eemian and Holocene sea-surface conditions in the southern Black Sea: organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst record from core 22-GC3/3

In order to compare the sea-surface conditions in the Black Sea during the Holocene and Eemian, sapropelic parts of marine core 22-GC3 (42°13.53′N/36°29.55′E, 838 m water depth) were studied for organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst content. The record shows a change from freshwater/brackish assemblages (Pyxidinopsis psilata, Spiniferites cruciformis, and Caspidinium rugosum) to more marine assemblages (Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Spiniferites ramosus complex) during each interglacial, due to the inflow of saline Mediterranean water. The lacustrine–marine transitions in 22-GC3 occurred at ~ 8.3 cal kyr BP during the early Holocene and ~ 128 kyr BP during the early Eemian, slightly later compared to the onset of interglacial conditions on the adjacent land. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages reveal higher sea-surface salinity (~ 28–30) (e.g. Spiniferites pachydermus, Bitectatodinium tepikiense, and Spiniferites mirabilis) around ~ 126.5–121 kyr BP in comparison to the Holocene (~ 15–20) as well as relatively high sea-surface temperature (e.g. Tuberculodinium vancampoae, S. pachydermus, and S. mirabilis) especially at ~ 127.6–125.3 kyr BP. Establishment of high sea-surface salinity during the Eemian correlates very well with reconstructed relatively high global sea-level and is explained as a combined effect of increased Mediterranean supply and high temperatures at the beginning of the last interglacial. The observed changes in the dinocyst record highlight the importance of nutrients for the composition of the Eemian and Holocene dinocyst assemblages.

The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Electrochemical fabrication and electrocatalytic properties of nanostructured mesoporous platinum microelectrodes

Electrodeposition from a lyotropic liquid crystal template medium was used to produce nanostructured platinum microelectrodes with high specific surface area and high mass transport efficiency. Compared to polished and conventional platinized microelectrodes, well-ordered nanostructured platinum microelectrodes exhibited enhanced electrocatalytic properties for oxygen and ascorbic acid, whilst well-ordered nanostructured platinum microelectrodes offered improved electrocatalytic properties for oxygen reduction compared to disordered nanostructured platinum microelectrodes.

Comparing the UK Met Office climate prediction system DePreSys with idealized predictability in the HadCM3 model

The initial condition effect on climate prediction skill over a 2-year hindcast time-scale has been assessed from ensemble HadCM3 climate model runs using anomaly initialization over the period 1990–2001, and making comparisons with runs without initialization (equivalent to climatological conditions), and to anomaly persistence. It is shown that the assimilation improves the prediction skill in the first year globally, and in a number of limited areas out into the second year. Skill in hindcasting surface air temperature anomalies is most marked over ocean areas, and is coincident with areas of high sea surface temperature and ocean heat content skill. Skill improvement over land areas is much more limited but is still detectable in some cases. We found little difference in the skill of hindcasts using three different sets of ocean initial conditions, and we obtained the best results by combining these to form a grand ensemble hindcast set. Results are also compared with the idealized predictability studies of Collins (Clim. Dynam. 2002; 19: 671–692), which used the same model. The maximum lead time for which initialization gives enhanced skill over runs without initialization varies in different regions but is very similar to lead times found in the idealized studies, therefore strongly supporting the process representation in the model as well as its use for operational predictions. The limited 12-year period of the study, however, means that the regional details of model skill should probably be further assessed under a wider range of observational conditions.

Climate on the Southern Black Sea coast during the Holocene: implications from the Sofular Cave record

We present the updated Holocene section of the Sofular Cave record from the southernBlackSeacoast (northern Turkey); an area with considerably different present-day climate compared to that of the neighboring Eastern Mediterranean region. Stalagmite δ13C, growth rates and initial (234U/238U) ratios provide information about hydrological changes above the cave; and prove to be more useful than δ18O for deciphering Holocene climatic variations. Between ∼9.6 and 5.4 ka BP (despite a pause from ∼8.4 to 7.8 ka BP), the Sofular record indicates a remarkable increase in rainfall amount and intensity, in line with other paleoclimate studies in the Eastern Mediterranean. During that period, enhanced summertime insolation either produced much stronger storms in the following fall and winter through high sea surface temperatures, or it invoked a regional summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. We suggest that one or both of these climatic mechanisms led to a coupling of the BlackSea and the Mediterranean rainfall regimes at that time, which can explain the observed proxy signals. However, there are discrepancies among the Eastern Mediterranean records in terms of the timing of this wet period; implying that changes were probably not always occurring through the same mechanism. Nevertheless, the Sofular Cave record does provide hints and bring about new questions about the connection between regional and large scale climates, highlighting the need for a more extensive network of high quality paleoclimate records to better understand Holoceneclimate.

MetUM-GOML: a near-globally coupled atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer model

Well-resolved air–sea interactions are simulated in a new ocean mixed-layer, coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM-GOML), comprising the MetUM coupled to the Multi-Column K Profile Parameterization ocean (MC-KPP). This is the first globally coupled system which provides a vertically resolved, high near-surface resolution ocean at comparable computational cost to running in atmosphere-only mode. As well as being computationally inexpensive, this modelling framework is adaptable– the independent MC-KPP columns can be applied selectively in space and time – and controllable – by using temperature and salinity corrections the model can be constrained to any ocean state. The framework provides a powerful research tool for process-based studies of the impact of air–sea interactions in the global climate system. MetUM simulations have been performed which separate the impact of introducing inter- annual variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the impact of having atmosphere–ocean feedbacks. The representation of key aspects of tropical and extratropical variability are used to assess the performance of these simulations. Coupling the MetUM to MC-KPP is shown, for example, to reduce tropical precipitation biases, improve the propagation of, and spectral power associated with, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and produce closer-to-observed patterns of springtime blocking activity over the Euro-Atlantic region.

Attribution of climate extreme events

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Scale interactions between the MJO and the western maritime continent

State-of-the-art regional climate model simulations that are able to resolve key mesoscale circulations are used, for the first time, to understand the interaction between the large-scale convective environment of the MJO and processes governing the strong diurnal cycle over the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC). Convection is sustained in the late afternoon just inland of the coasts due to sea breeze convergence. Previous work has shown that the variability in MC rainfall associated with the MJO is manifested in changes to this diurnal cycle; land-based rainfall peaks before the active convective envelope of the MJO reaches the MC, whereas oceanic rainfall rates peak whilst the active envelope resides over the region. The model simulations show that the main controls on oceanic MC rainfall in the early active MJO phases are the large-scale environment and atmospheric stability, followed by high oceanic latent heat flux forced by high near-surface winds in the later active MJO phases. Over land, rainfall peaks before the main convective envelope arrives (in agreement with observations), even though the large-scale convective environment is only moderately favourable for convection. The causes of this early rainfall peak are convective triggers from land-sea breeze circulations that are strong due to high surface insolation and surface heating. During the peak MJO phases cloud cover increases and surface insolation decreases, which weakens the strength of the mesoscale circulations and reduces land-based rainfall, even though the large-scale environment remains favourable for convection at this time. Hence, scale interactions are an essential part of the MJO transition across the MC.

When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Variational calculations of rovibrational states: a precise high-energy potential surface for HCN [and discussion]

We report the results of variational calculations of the rovibrational energy levels of HCN for J = 0, 1 and 2, where we reproduce all the ca. 100 observed vibrational states for all observed isotopic species, with energies up to 18000 cm$^{-1}$, to about $\pm $1 cm$^{-1}$, and the corresponding rotational constants to about $\pm $0.001 cm$^{-1}$. We use a hamiltonian expressed in internal coordinates r$_{1}$, r$_{2}$ and $\theta $, using the exact expression for the kinetic energy operator T obtained by direct transformation from the cartesian representation. The potential energy V is expressed as a polynomial expansion in the Morse coordinates y$_{i}$ for the bond stretches and the interbond angle $\theta $. The basis functions are built as products of appropriately scaled Morse functions in the bond-stretches and Legendre or associated Legendre polynomials of cos $\theta $ in the angle bend, and we evaluate matrix elements by Gauss quadrature. The hamiltonian matripx is factorized using the full rovibrational symmetry, and the basis is contracted to an optimized form; the dimensions of the final hamiltonian matrix vary from 240 $\times $ 240 to 1000 $\times $ 1000.We believe that our calculation is converged to better than 1 cm$^{-1}$ at 18 000 cm$^{-1}$. Our potential surface is expressed in terms of 31 parameters, about half of which have been refined by least squares to optimize the fit to the experimental data. The advantages and disadvantages and the future potential of calculations of this type are discussed.

Layer-by-layer deposition of praseodymium oxide on tin-doped indium oxide (ITO) surface

Praseodymium oxide as a thin film of controllable layer is known to display many unique physiochemical properties, which can be useful to ceramic, semiconductive and sensor industries. Here in this short paper, we describe a new chemical method of depositing praseodymium oxide on tin-doped indium oxide (ITO) surface using a layer-by-layer approach. The process is carried out by dipping the ITO in solutions of adsorbable polycationic chitosan and alkaline praseodymium hydroxide Pr(OH)(3) alternatively in order to build up the well-defined multi-layers. XRD suggests that the predominant form of the oxide is Pr6O11, obtained after heat treatment of the deposited ITO in static air at 500 degrees C. Microscopic studies including AFM, TEM and SEM indicate that the deposited oxide particles are uniform in size and shape (cylindrical), mesoporous and the thickness of the film can be controlled. AC impedance measurements of the deposited materials also reveal that the oxide layers display a high electrical conductivity hence suitable for sensor uses. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimisation of high temperature puffing of potato cubes using response surface methodology

One cubic centimetre potato cubes were blanched, sulfited, dried initially for between 40 and 80 min in air at 90 degreesC in a cabinet drier, puffed in a high temperature fluidised bed and then dried for up to 180 min in a cabinet drier. The final moisture content was 0.05 dwb. The resulting product was optimised using response surface methodology, in terms of volume and colour (L-*, a(*) and b(*) values) of the dry product, as well as rehydration ratio and texture of the rehydrated product. The operating conditions resulting in the optimised product were found to be blanching for 6 min in water at 100 degreesC, dipping in 400 ppm sodium metabisulfite solution for 10 min, initially drying for 40 min and puffing in air at 200 degreesC for 40 s, followed by final drying to a moisture content of 0.05 dwb. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.