Predicting space climate change

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record.

Roger Machado, Perkin Warbeck and heraldic espionage

An examination of the medieval herald's role in international espionage. It is argued that heralds were used as spies, despite their creation oaths stipulating that their job should not encompass this task. The herald Roger Machado's involvement in the diplomacy surrounding the pretender to the English throne, Perkin Warbeck, is scrutinized and is offered as evidence that Machado did act as a spy for Henry VII on the international stage.