How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming?

Robust responses and links between the tropical energy and water cycles are investigated using multiple datasets and climate models over the period 1979-2006. Atmospheric moisture and net radiative cooling provide powerful constraints upon future changes in precipitation. While moisture amount is robustly linked with surface temperature, the response of atmospheric net radiative cooling, derived from satellite data, is less coherent. Precipitation trends and relationships with surface temperature are highly sensitive to the data product and the time-period considered. Data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) produces the strongest trends in precipitation and response to warming of all the datasets considered. The tendency for moist regions to become wetter while dry regions become drier in response to warming is captured by both observations and models. Citation: John, V. O., R. P. Allan, and B. J. Soden (2009), How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming?

Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is linked to surface weather. After Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in winter, the tropospheric circulation is often nudged towards the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A strong stratospheric vortex is often associated with subsequent positive NAM/NAO conditions. For stratosphere–troposphere associations to be useful for forecasting purposes it is crucial that changes to the stratospheric vortex can be understood and predicted. Recent studies have proposed that there exist tropospheric precursors to anomalous vortex events in the stratosphere and that these precursors may be understood by considering the relationship between stationary wave patterns and regional variability. Another important factor is the extent to which the inherent variability of the stratosphere in an atmospheric model influences its ability to simulate stratosphere–troposphere links. Here we examine the lower stratosphere variability in 300-year pre-industrial control integrations from 13 coupled climate models. We show that robust precursors to stratospheric polar vortex anomalies are evident across the multi-model ensemble. The most significant tropospheric component of these precursors consists of a height anomaly dipole across northern Eurasia and large anomalies in upward stationary wave fluxes in the lower stratosphere over the continent. The strength of the stratospheric variability in the models was found to depend on the variability of the upward stationary wave fluxes and the amplitude of the stationary waves.

Seed longevity - moisture content relationships in hermetic and open storage

In seed storage research, moisture content can be maintained by providing a stable relative humidity (e.g. over saturated salt solutions) or by hermetic storage, but the two approaches provide different gaseous environments which might affect longevity. Seeds of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) and sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) were stored at 45 degrees C or 50 degrees C, respectively, with different moisture contents maintained by hermetic storage in laminated-aluminium-foil packets, or by desiccators above either saturated salt solutions or moistened silica gel. Seeds were withdrawn from storage at intervals from 1 to 28 d for up to 480 d and viability estimated. Within a species, the negative logarithmic relation between seed longevity and moisture content did not differ (P> 0.25, timothy; >0.05, sesame) between storage in desiccators over either moistened silica gel or saturated salt solutions, whereas the relation was much steeper (P< 0.005) in hermetic storage: longevity was similar at high moisture contents, but at low values much greater with hermetic storage. This effect of storage method on seed longevity's sensitivity to moisture content implies that oxygen is relatively more deleterious to seeds at lower than at greater moisture contents and confirms that hermetic storage is preferable for long-term seed storage at low moisture contents.

Systemic and persistent effect of neem (Azadirachta indica) formulations against root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne javanica and their storage life

Neem leaves, neem cake (a by-product left after the extraction of oil from neem seed) and a commercially refined product aza (azadirachtin) extracted from seed were evaluated. Aqueous extracts of crude neem formulations used as a seedling dip treatment significantly reduced the number of females and egg masses in roots whereas the refined one did not. A split-root technique was used to demonstrate the translocation of active compounds within a plant and their subsequent effect on the development of nematodes. When applied to the root portion all formulations significantly reduced the number of egg masses and eggs per egg mass. Whereas on the untreated root portion, neem cake at 3% w/w and aza at 0.1% w/w significantly reduced the number of egg masses as compared with neem leaves at 3% w/w, aza at 0.05% and control. All the neern formulations significantly reduced the number of eggs per egg mass on' the untreated root portion. The effect of neem leaves and cake on the development of root-knot nematodes was tested at 2, 4, 6, 8, and 16 weeks after their application to soil. Even after 16 weeks all the treatments significantly reduced the galling index and number of egg masses but their effectiveness declined over time. After storing neem leaves, cake and aza for 8 months under ambient conditions the efficacy of neem leaves and aza, against root-knot nematodes, remained stable whereas that of cake declined. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LVB: parsimony and simulated annealing in the search for phylogenetic trees

Summary: The program LVB seeks parsimonious phylogenies from nucleotide alignments, using the simulated annealing heuristic. LVB runs fast and gives high quality results.

Viability of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica during the preparation and cold storage of Egyptian soft cheeses and ice-cream

Changes occurring in the viability of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica during the preparation and cold storage of Domiati cheese, Kariesh cheese and ice-cream were examined. A significant decrease in numbers was observed after whey drainage during the manufacture of Domiati cheese, but Salmonella remained viable for 13 weeks in cheeses prepared from milks with between 60 and 100 g/L NaCl; the viability declined in Domiati cheese made from highly salted milk during the later stages of storage. The method of coagulation used in the preparation of Kariesh cheese affected the survival time of the pathogen, and it varied from 2 to 3 weeks in cheeses made with a slow-acid coagulation method to 4-5 weeks for an acid-rennet coagulation method. This difference was attributed to the higher salt-in-moisture levels and lower pH values of Kariesh cheese prepared by the slow-acid coagulation method. A slight decrease in the numbers of Salmonella resulted from ageing ice-cream mix for 24 h at 0degreesC, but a greater reduction was evident after one day of frozen storage at -20degreesC. The pathogen survived further frozen storage for four months without any substantial change in numbers.

Air flow influences on local climate: observed and simulated mean relationships for the United Kingdom

Synoptic-scale air flow variability over the United Kingdom is measured on a daily time scale by following previous work to define 3 indices: geostrophic flow strength, vorticity and direction. Comparing the observed distribution of air flow index values with those determined from a simulation with the Hadley Centre’s global climate model (HadCM2) identifies some minor systematic biases in the model’s synoptic circulation but demonstrates that the major features are well simulated. The relationship between temperature and precipitation from parts of the United Kingdom and these air flow indices (either singly or in pairs) is found to be very similar in both the observations and model output; indeed the simulated and observed precipitation relationships are found to be almost interchangeable in a quantitative sense. These encouraging results imply that some reliability can be assumed for single grid-box and regional output from this climate model; this applies only to those grid boxes evaluated here (which do not have high or complex orography), only to the portion of variability that is controlled by synoptic air flow variations, and only to those surface variables considered here (temperature and precipitation).

A case study to investigate the life cycle carbon emissions and carbon storage capacity of a cross laminated timber, multi-storey residential building

Forests are a store of carbon and an eco-system that continually removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. If they are sustainably managed, the carbon store can be maintained at a constant level, while the trees removed and converted to timber products can form an additional long term carbon store. The total carbon store in the forest and associated ‘wood chain’ therefore increases over time, given appropriate management. This increasing carbon store can be further enhanced with afforestation. The UK’s forest area has increased continually since the early 1900s, although the rate of increase has declined since its peak in the late 1980s, and it is a similar picture in the rest of Europe. The increased sustainable use of timber in construction is a key market incentive for afforestation, which can make a significant contribution to reducing carbon emissions. The case study presented in this paper demonstrates the carbon benefits of a Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) solution for a multi-storey residential building in comparison with a more conventional reinforced concrete solution. The embodied carbon of the building up to completion of construction is considered, together with the stored carbon during the life of the building and the impact of different end of life scenarios. The results of the study show that the total stored carbon in the CLT structural frame is 1215tCO2 (30tCO2 per housing unit). The choice of treatment at end of life has a significant effect on the whole life embodied carbon of the CLT frame, which ranges from -1017 tCO2e for re-use to +153tCO2e for incinerate without energy recovery. All end of life scenarios considered result in lower total CO2e emissions for the CLT frame building compared with the reinforced concrete frame solution.

Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100

Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3% K−1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2% K−1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming.

Synergistic angular and spectral estimation of aerosol properties using CHRIS/PROBA-1 and simulated Sentinel-3~data

A method has been developed to estimate Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Fine Mode Fraction (FMF) and Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) over land surfaces using simulated Sentinel-3 data. The method uses inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model, and includes a general physical model of angular surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value of the aerosol properties providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values for a number of view angles and wavelengths with those provided by the physical model. A method of estimating AOD using only angular retrieval has previously been demonstrated on data from the ENVISAT and PROBA-1 satellite instruments, and is extended here to the synergistic spectral and angular sampling of Sentinel-3 and the additional aerosol properties. The method is tested using hyperspectral, multi-angle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) images. The values obtained from these CHRIS observations are validated using ground based sun-photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets using the synergistic retrieval and improved aerosol models show an RMSE of 0.06 in AOD, reduced to 0.03 over vegetated targets.