Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of rotation and ice shelf topography on frazil-laden ice shelf water plumes

A model of the dynamics and thermodynamics of a plume of meltwater at the base of an ice shelf is presented. Such ice shelf water plumes may become supercooled and deposit marine ice if they rise (because of the pressure decrease in the in situ freezing temperature), so the model incorporates both melting and freezing at the ice shelf base and a multiple-size-class model of frazil ice dynamics and deposition. The plume is considered in two horizontal dimensions, so the influence of Coriolis forces is incorporated for the first time. It is found that rotation is extremely influential, with simulated plumes flowing in near-geostrophy because of the low friction at a smooth ice shelf base. As a result, an ice shelf water plume will only rise and become supercooled (and thus deposit marine ice) if it is constrained to flow upslope by topography. This result agrees with the observed distribution of marine ice under Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. In addition, it is found that the model only produces reasonable marine ice formation rates when an accurate ice shelf draft is used, implying that the characteristics of real ice shelf water plumes can only be captured using models with both rotation and a realistic topography.

Amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are inversely coupled during regulation of negative affect and predict the diurnal pattern of cortisol secretion among older adults

Among younger adults, the ability to willfully regulate negative affect, enabling effective responses to stressful experiences, engages regions of prefrontal cortex (PFC) and the amygdala. Because regions of PFC and the amygdala are known to influence the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, here we test whether PFC and amygdala responses during emotion regulation predict the diurnal pattern of salivary cortisol secretion. We also test whether PFC and amygdala regions are engaged during emotion regulation in older (62- to 64-year-old) rather than younger individuals. We measured brain activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging as participants regulated (increased or decreased) their affective responses or attended to negative picture stimuli. We also collected saliva samples for 1 week at home for cortisol assay. Consistent with previous work in younger samples, increasing negative affect resulted in ventral lateral, dorsolateral, and dorsomedial regions of PFC and amygdala activation. In contrast to previous work, decreasing negative affect did not produce the predicted robust pattern of higher PFC and lower amygdala activation. Individuals demonstrating the predicted effect (decrease s attend in the amygdala), however, exhibited higher signal in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) for the same contrast. Furthermore, participants displaying higher VMPFC and lower amygdala signal when decreasing compared with the attention control condition evidenced steeper, more normative declines in cortisol over the course of the day. Individual differences yielded the predicted link between brain function while reducing negative affect in the laboratory and diurnal regulation of endocrine activity in the home environment.

Effect of combined heat and high-pressure treatments on the texture of chicken breast muscle (Pectoralis fundus)

Commercially supplied chicken breast muscle was subjected to simultaneous heat and pressure treatments. Treatment conditions ranged from ambient temperature to 70 °C and from 0.1 to 800 MPa, respectively, in various combinations. Texture profile analysis (TPA) of the treated samples was performed to determine changes in muscle hardness. At treatment temperatures up to and including 50 °C, heat and pressure acted synergistically to increase muscle hardness. However, at 60 and 70 °C, hardness decreased following treatments in excess of 200 MPa. TPA was performed on extracted myofibrillar protein gels that after treatment under similar conditions revealed similar effects of heat and pressure. Differential scanning calorimetry analysis of whole muscle samples revealed that at ambient pressure the unfolding of myosin was completed at 60 °C, unlike actin, which completely denatured only above 70 °C. With simultaneous pressure treatment at >200 MPa, myosin and actin unfolded at 20 °C. Unfolding of myosin and actin could be induced in extracted myofibrillar protein with simultaneous treatment at 200 MPa and 40 °C. Electrophoretic analysis indicated high pressure/temperature regimens induced disulfide bonding between myosin chains.

Formation of dityrosine cross-links during breadmaking

To establish its significance during commercial breadmaking, dityrosine formation was quantified in flours and doughs of six commercial wheat types at various stages of the Chorleywood Bread Process. Dityrosine was formed mainly during mixing and baking, at the levels of nmol/g dry weight. Good breadmaking flours tended to exhibit higher dityrosine content in the final bread than low quality ones, but no relationship was found for dityrosine as a proportion of flour protein content, indicating that the latter was still a dominant factor in the analysis. There was no correlation between gluten yield of the six wheat types and their typical dityrosine concentrations, suggesting that dityrosine crosslinks were not a determinant factor for gluten formation. Ascorbic acid was found to inhibit dityrosine formation during mixing and proving, and have no significant effect on dityrosine in the final bread. Hydrogen peroxide promoted dityrosine formation, which suggests a radical mechanism involving endogenous peroxidases might be the responsible for dityrosine formation during breadmaking.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association: tracking using graphical models

When performing data fusion, one often measures where targets were and then wishes to deduce where targets currently are. There has been recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data. This research has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships among the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit. Results for a multi-sensor scenario involving out-of-sequence data association are used to illustrate the utility of this approach in a specific context.

Influence of molecular composition on the development of microstructure from sheared polyethylene melts: Molecular and lamellar templating

A combination of in situ and ex situ X-ray scattering techniques and transmission electron microscopy has been used to study the crystallization behaviour of polyethylene, following the imposition of melt shear. In the case of a branched material, the imposition of shear flow up to a rate of 30 s(-1) was found to induce no anisotropy. Although shearing the linear material only ever induced a very small degree of anisotropy in the melt, for shear rates > 0.15 s(-1), subsequent crystallization resulted in increasing anisotropy. Blends of the above two polyethylenes were produced, in which the linear material constituted the minority fraction (similar to 10%). Isothermal crystallization at temperatures where extensive crystallization of the branched material does not occur demonstrated that the behaviour of the linear component of the sheared blend mirrored that of the linear polyethylene alone. However, in addition, it was found that when crystallized in the presence of an oriented morphology, the branched polymer also formed anisotropic structures. We have termed the process templating, in which the crystallization behaviour of the bulk of the system (similar to 90% branched material) is completely altered (spherulitic to oriented lamellar) by mapping it onto a pre-existing minority structure (similar to 10% linear polymer). (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Achieving accurate FTIR measurements on high performance bandpass filters

The sources of ordinate error in FTIR spectrometers are reviewed with reference to measuring small out-of-band features in the spectra of bandpass filters. Procedures for identifying instrumental artefacts are described. It is shown that features well below 0.01%T can be measured reliably.

New radiocarbon accelerator dates on artefacts from the early Mesolithic site of Star Carr, North Yorkshire

For the well-known early Mesolithic site of Star Carr, dating of organic artefacts by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) has been hampered by treatment of bone and antler recovered during the original excavations with preservatives. Some, untreated, artefacts were, however, collected after Clark's excavation in 1950. Four of these artefacts were AMS dated in 1995, but two of the dates were significantly younger than the others, and were questionable due to their low collagen yields. These suspect samples have now been re-analysed, demonstrating that all four artefacts are of similar date. The significance of these dates for the chronology of Star Carr is discussed.