Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single ‘deterministic’ forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale,which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.

Characterization of safe nanostructured polymeric materials

The addition of small quantities of nanoparticles to conventional and sustainable thermoplastics leads to property enhancements with considerable potential in many areas of applications including food packaging 1, lightweight composites and high performance materials 2. In the case of sustainable polymers 3, the addition of nanoparticles may well sufficiently enhance properties such that the portfolio of possible applications is greatly increased. Most engineered nanoparticles are highly stable and these exist as nanoparticles prior to compounding with the polymer resin. They remain as nanoparticles during the active use of the packaging material as well as in the subsequent waste and recycling streams. It is also possible to construct the nanoparticles within the polymer films during processing from organic compounds selected to present minimal or no potential health hazards 4. In both cases the characterisation of the resultant nanostructured polymers presents a number of challenges. Foremost amongst these are the coupled challenges of the nanoscale of the particles and the low fraction present in the polymer matrix. Very low fractions of nanoparticles are only effective if the dispersion of the particles is good. This continues to be an issue in the process engineering but of course bad dispersion is much easier to see than good dispersion. In this presentation we show the merits of a combined scattering (neutron and x-ray) and microscopy (SEM, TEM, AFM) approach. We explore this methodology using rod like, plate like and spheroidal particles including metallic particles, plate-like and rod-like clay dispersions and nanoscale particles based on carbon such as nanotubes and graphene flakes. We will draw on a range of material systems, many explored in partnership with other members of Napolynet. The value of adding nanoscale particles is that the scale matches the scale of the structure in the polymer matrix. Although this can lead to difficulties in separating the effects in scattering experiments, the result in morphological studies means that both the nanoparticles and the polymer morphology are revealed.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.