The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate

Current state-of-the-art climate models fail to capture accurately the path of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. This leads to a warm bias near the North American coast, where the modelled Gulf Stream separates from the coast further north, and a cold anomaly to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, where the North Atlantic Current remains too zonal in this region. Using an atmosphere-only model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the North Atlantic, we consider the impact they have on the mean state and the variability in the North Atlantic European region in winter. Our results show that the SST errors produce a mean sea-level pressure response that is similar in magnitude and pattern to the atmospheric circulation errors in the coupled climate model. The work also suggests that errors in the coupled model storm tracks and North Atlantic Oscillation, compared to reanalysis data, can also be explained partly by these SST errors. Our results suggest that both the error in the Gulf Stream separation location and the path of the North Atlantic Current around the Grand Banks play important roles in affecting the atmospheric circulation. Reducing these coupled model errors could improve significantly the representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic and European region.

Obesity, diabetes and longevity in the Gulf: is there a Gulf Metabolic Syndrome?

The Gulf is experiencing a pandemic of lifestyle-induced obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), with rates exceeding 50 and 30%, respectively. It is likely that T2DM represents the tip of a very large metabolic syndrome iceberg, which precedes T2DM by many years and is associated with abnormal/ectopic fat distribution, pathological systemic oxidative stress and inflammation. However, the definitions are still evolving with the role of different fat depots being critical. Hormetic stimuli, which include exercise, calorie restriction, temperature extremes, dehydration and even some dietary components (such as plant polyphenols), may well modulate fat deposition. All induce physiological levels of oxidative stress, which results in mitochondrial biogenesis and increased anti-oxidant capacity, improving metabolic flexibility and the ability to deal with lipids. We propose that the Gulf Metabolic Syndrome results from an unusually rapid loss of hormetic stimuli within an epigenetically important time frame of 2-3 generations. Epigenetics indicates that thriftiness can be programmed by the environment and passed down through several generations. Thus this loss of hormesis can result in continuation of metabolic inflexibility, with mothers exposing the foetus to a milieu that perpetuates a stressed epigenotype. As the metabolic syndrome increases oxidative stress and reduces life expectancy, a better descriptor may therefore be the Lifestyle-Induced Metabolic Inflexibility and accelerated AGEing syndrome – LIMIT-AGE. As life expectancy in the Gulf begins to fall, with perhaps a third of this life being unhealthy – including premature loss of sexual function, it is vital to detect evidence of this condition as early in life as possible. One effective way to do this is by detecting evidence of metabolic inflexibility by studying body fat content and distribution by magnetic resonance (MR). The Gulf Metabolic Syndrome thus represents an accelerated form of the metabolic syndrome induced by the unprecedented rapidity of lifestyle change in the region, the stress of which is being passed from generation to generation and may be accumulative. The fundamental cause is probably due to a rapid increase in countrywide wealth. This has benefited most socioeconomic groups, resulting in the development of an obesogenic environment as the result of the rapid adoption of Western labour saving and stress relieving devices (e.g. cars and air conditioning), as well as the associated high calorie diet.