When does ignorance make us smart? Additional factors guiding heuristic inference

“Fast & frugal” heuristics represent an appealing way of implementing bounded rationality and decision-making under pressure. The recognition heuristic is the simplest and most fundamental of these heuristics. Simulation and experimental studies have shown that this ignorance-driven heuristic inference can prove superior to knowledge based inference (Borges, Goldstein, Ortman & Gigerenzer, 1999; Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002) and have shown how the heuristic could develop from ACT-R’s forgetting function (Schooler & Hertwig, 2005). Mathematical analyses also demonstrate that, under certain conditions, a “less-is-more effect” will always occur (Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002). The further analyses presented in this paper show, however, that these conditions may constitute a special case and that the less-is-more effect in decision-making is subject to the moderating influence of the number of options to be considered and the framing of the question.

Guiding e-learning: introducing online informal learning to a global voluntary organisation

The World Association of Girl Guides and Girl Scouts (WAGGGS) is the umbrella organisation for Member Organisations from 145 countries around the world, with a total membership of ten million. While Member Organisations offer training and development within their own countries, WAGGGS offers international opportunities. This project seeks to explore how technology can be used to offer similar opportunities to those provided by the face-to-face courses to a much wider audience, while retaining the community and interactive learning aspects of the existing programmes.

The role of efficacy and well-being in guiding the use of education and training services by young homeless mothers

This paper builds on previous work applying the concept of well-being to the field of housing. It uses the concepts of self-esteem, efficacy and social identity to explore the situations of a group of young homeless mothers. In particular, it focuses on the impact of well-being factors, among others, in understanding the uptake of education and training services. The paper concludes by arguing that well-being issues are crucial for housing agencies and others who want to engage with young homeless people.

The invisible hand guiding technology: crossing the boundary of technology

This paper examines attitudes towards Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology and explores the wider concerns of the ever increasing prospect of social tagging. Capturing vignettes and narratives from a sample of study participants, the paper highlights concerns about adopting RFID implements now and in the future. The views captured through qualitative methodology act as the platform for a wider argument concerning the human rights and privacy intrusion concerns over IT applications. Intended as an insight into the reality of technology impact, this paper lists a series of questions for leaders to consider over matters of human rights specifically concerning RFID adoption. The authors conclude that caution, naivety and fear are the underlying reasons for society accepting RFIDs without question and that RFIDs will be a part of everyday working and domestic life in the near future.

Disorder prediction methods, their applicability to different protein targets and their usefulness for guiding experimental studies

The role and function of a given protein is dependent on its structure. In recent years, however, numerous studies have highlighted the importance of unstructured, or disordered regions in governing a protein’s function. Disordered proteins have been found to play important roles in pivotal cellular functions, such as DNA binding and signalling cascades. Studying proteins with extended disordered regions is often problematic as they can be challenging to express, purify and crystallise. This means that interpretable experimental data on protein disorder is hard to generate. As a result, predictive computational tools have been developed with the aim of predicting the level and location of disorder within a protein. Currently, over 60 prediction servers exist, utilizing different methods for classifying disorder and different training sets. Here we review several good performing, publicly available prediction methods, comparing their application and discussing how disorder prediction servers can be used to aid the experimental solution of protein structure. The use of disorder prediction methods allows us to adopt a more targeted approach to experimental studies by accurately identifying the boundaries of ordered protein domains so that they may be investigated separately, thereby increasing the likelihood of their successful experimental solution.

Rapid climate change: an overview for economists

The possibility of future rapid climatic changes is a pressing concern amongst climate scientists. For example, an abrupt collapse of the ocean's Thermohaline Circulation (THC) would rapidly cool the northern hemisphere and reduce the net global primary productivity of vegetation, according to computer models. It is unclear how to incorporate such low-probability, high-impact events into the development of economics policies. This paper reviews the salient aspects of rapid climate change relevant to economists and policy makers. The main scientific certainties and uncertainties are clearly delineated, with the aim of guiding economics goals and ensuring that they retain fidelity to their scientific underpinnings.

Representing El Niño in coupled ocean–atmosphere GCMs: the dominant role of the atmospheric component

A systematic modular approach to investigate the respective roles of the ocean and atmosphere in setting El Niño characteristics in coupled general circulation models is presented. Several state-of-the-art coupled models sharing either the same atmosphere or the same ocean are compared. Major results include 1) the dominant role of the atmosphere model in setting El Niño characteristics (periodicity and base amplitude) and errors (regularity) and 2) the considerable improvement of simulated El Niño power spectra—toward lower frequency—when the atmosphere resolution is significantly increased. Likely reasons for such behavior are briefly discussed. It is argued that this new modular strategy represents a generic approach to identifying the source of both coupled mechanisms and model error and will provide a methodology for guiding model improvement.

A cross-taxonomic index for quantifying the health of farmland biodiversity

P>1. The development of sustainable, multi-functional agricultural systems involves reconciling the needs of agricultural production with the objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of sustainability remains ambiguous and it has proven difficult to identify suitable indicators for monitoring progress towards, and the successful achievement of, sustainability. 2. In this study, we show that a trait-based approach can be used to assess the detrimental impacts of agricultural change to a broad range of taxonomic groupings and derive a standardised index of farmland biodiversity health, built around an objective of achieving stable or increasing populations in all species associated with agricultural landscapes. 3. To demonstrate its application, we assess the health of UK farmland biodiversity relative to this goal. Our results suggest that the populations of two-thirds of 333 plant and animal species assessed are unsustainable under current UK agricultural practices. 4. We then explore the potential benefits of an agri-environment scheme, Entry Level Stewardship (ELS), to farmland biodiversity in the UK under differing levels of risk mitigation delivery. We show that ELS has the potential to make a significant contribution to progress towards sustainability targets but that this potential is severely restricted by current patterns of scheme deployment. 5.Synthesis and applications: We have developed a cross-taxonomic sustainability index which can be used to assess both the current health of farmland biodiversity and the impacts of future agricultural changes relative to quantitative biodiversity targets. Although biodiversity conservation is just one of a number of factors that must be considered when defining sustainability, we believe our cross-taxonomic index has the potential to be a valuable tool for guiding the development of sustainable agricultural systems.

Overview of mathematical approaches used to model bacterial chemotaxis I: the single cell

Mathematical modeling of bacterial chemotaxis systems has been influential and insightful in helping to understand experimental observations. We provide here a comprehensive overview of the range of mathematical approaches used for modeling, within a single bacterium, chemotactic processes caused by changes to external gradients in its environment. Specific areas of the bacterial system which have been studied and modeled are discussed in detail, including the modeling of adaptation in response to attractant gradients, the intracellular phosphorylation cascade, membrane receptor clustering, and spatial modeling of intracellular protein signal transduction. The importance of producing robust models that address adaptation, gain, and sensitivity are also discussed. This review highlights that while mathematical modeling has aided in understanding bacterial chemotaxis on the individual cell scale and guiding experimental design, no single model succeeds in robustly describing all of the basic elements of the cell. We conclude by discussing the importance of this and the future of modeling in this area.

Glycogen phosphorylase inhibitors: a free energy perturbation analysis of glucopyranose spirohydantoin analogues

GP catalyzes the phosphorylation of glycogen to Glc-1-P. Because of its fundamental role in the metabolism of glycogen, GP has been the target for a systematic structure-assisted design of inhibitory compounds, which could be of value in the therapeutic treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The most potent catalytic-site inhibitor of GP identified to date is spirohydantoin of glucopyranose (hydan). In this work, we employ MD free energy simulations to calculate the relative binding affinities for GP of hydan and two spirohydantoin analogues, methyl-hydan and n-hydan, in which a hydrogen atom is replaced by a methyl- or amino group, respectively. The results are compared with the experimental relative affinities of these ligands, estimated by kinetic measurements of the ligand inhibition constants. The calculated binding affinity for methyl-hydan (relative to hydan) is 3.75 +/- 1.4 kcal/mol, in excellent agreement with the experimental value (3.6 +/- 0.2 kcal/mol). For n-hydan, the calculated value is 1.0 +/- 1.1 kcal/mol, somewhat smaller than the experimental result (2.3 +/- 0.1 kcal/mol). A free energy decomposition analysis shows that hydan makes optimum interactions with protein residues and specific water molecules in the catalytic site. In the other two ligands, structural perturbations of the active site by the additional methyl- or amino group reduce the corresponding binding affinities. The computed binding free energies are sensitive to the preference of a specific water molecule for two well-defined positions in the catalytic site. The behavior of this water is analyzed in detail, and the free energy profile for the translocation of the water between the two positions is evaluated. The results provide insights into the role of water molecules in modulating ligand binding affinities. A comparison of the interactions between a set of ligands and their surrounding groups in X-ray structures is often used in the interpretation of binding free energy differences and in guiding the design of new ligands. For the systems in this work, such an approach fails to estimate the order of relative binding strengths, in contrast to the rigorous free energy treatment.

Critical success factors for competitiveness of contractors: A China study

Gaining or maintaining a “contractor's” competitive advantage is not easy as it is determined by a large number of factors. Identification of critical success factors (CSFs) allows one to reduce the vast number of factors to some manageable few but vital ones. Based on the CSFs, contractors' limited resources such as money and manpower can be allocated and aligned appropriately for yielding a maximum outcome of overall competitiveness. This paper describes the CSFs identified from a survey study carried out in Mainland China. The ranking analysis of the survey results shows that 35 factors are rated as critical for determining the competitiveness of a contractor. Factor analysis reveals that the 35 CSFs identified can be grouped into eight clusters, namely, project management skills, organization structure, resources, competitive strategy, relationships, bidding, marketing, and technology. The CSFs in this study provide a vehicle for guiding a contractor in managing its resources in order to improve competitive advantage. The study also provides insights into the management of competitiveness for contractors that are operating in the particular context of the Chinese construction industry.

How active gaze informs the hand in sequential pointing movements

Visual information is vital for fast and accurate hand movements. It has been demonstrated that allowing free eye movements results in greater accuracy than when the eyes maintain centrally fixed. Three explanations as to why free gaze improves accuracy are: shifting gaze to a target allows visual feedback in guiding the hand to the target (feedback loop), shifting gaze generates ocular-proprioception which can be used to update a movement (feedback-feedforward), or efference copy could be used to direct hand movements (feedforward). In this experiment we used a double-step task and manipulated the utility of ocular-proprioceptive feedback from eye to head position by removing the second target during the saccade. We confirm the advantage of free gaze for sequential movements with a double-step pointing task and document eye-hand lead times of approximately 200 ms for both initial movements and secondary movements. The observation that participants move gaze well ahead of the current hand target dismisses foveal feedback as a major contribution. We argue for a feedforward model based on eye movement efference as the major factor in enabling accurate hand movements. The results with the double-step target task also suggest the need for some buffering of efference and ocular-proprioceptive signals to cope with the situation where the eye has moved to a location ahead of the current target for the hand movement. We estimate that this buffer period may range between 120 and 200 ms without significant impact on hand movement accuracy.

Robots with a gentle touch: advances in assistive robotics and prosthetics

As healthcare costs rise and an aging population makes an increased demand on services, so new techniques must be introduced to promote an individuals independence and provide these services. Robots can now be designed so they can alter their dynamic properties changing from stiff to flaccid, or from giving no resistance to movement, to damping any large and sudden movements. This has some strong implications in health care in particular for rehabilitation where a robot must work in conjunction with an individual, and might guiding or assist a persons arm movements, or might be commanded to perform some set of autonomous actions. This paper presents the state-of-the-art of rehabilitation robots with examples from prosthetics, aids for daily living and physiotherapy. In all these situations there is the potential for the interaction to be non-passive with a resulting potential for the human/machine/environment combination to become unstable. To understand this instability we must develop better models of the human motor system and fit these models with realistic parameters. This paper concludes with a discussion of this problem and overviews some human models that can be used to facilitate the design of the human/machine interfaces.