Growth and public infrastructure

The paper analyzes a multicountry extension of the Barro model of productive public expenditure. In the presence of positive infrastructural externalities between countries, the provision of infrastructure will be inefficiently low if countries do not coordinate. This provides a role for a supranational body, such as the European Union, to coordinate the policies of the individual governments. It is shown how intervention by a supranational body can raise welfare by internalizing the infrastructural externality. Infrastructural externalities increase the importance of tax policy in the growth process and distribute the benefits of taxation across countries.

The energy-cycle analysis of the interactions between shallow and deep atmospheric convection

Interactions between different convection modes can be investigated using an energy–cycle description under a framework of mass–flux parameterization. The present paper systematically investigates this system by taking a limit of two modes: shallow and deep convection. Shallow convection destabilizes itself as well as the other convective modes by moistening and cooling the environment, whereas deep convection stabilizes itself as well as the other modes by drying and warming the environment. As a result, shallow convection leads to a runaway growth process in its stand–alone mode, whereas deep convection simply damps out. Interaction between these two convective modes becomes a rich problem, even when it is limited to the case with no large–scale forcing, because of these opposing tendencies. Only if the two modes are coupled at a proper level can a self–sustaining system arise, exhibiting a periodic cycle. The present study establishes the conditions for self–sustaining periodic solutions. It carefully documents the behaviour of the two mode system in order to facilitate the interpretation of global model behaviours when this energy–cycle is implemented as a closure into a convection parameterization in future.

The coevolution of two phytoplankton species on a single resource: allelopathy as a pseudo-mixotrophy

Without the top-down effects and the external/physical forcing, a stable coexistence of two phytoplankton species under a single resource is impossible — a result well known from the principle of competitive exclusion. Here I demonstrate by analysis of a mathematical model that such a stable coexistence in a homogeneous media without any external factor would be possible, at least theoretically, provided (i) one of the two species is toxin producing thereby has an allelopathic effect on the other, and (ii) the allelopathic effect exceeds a critical level. The threshold level of allelopathy required for the coexistence has been derived analytically in terms of the parameters associated with the resource competition and the nutrient recycling. That the extra mortality of a competitor driven by allelopathy of a toxic species gives a positive feed back to the algal growth process through the recycling is explained. And that this positive feed back plays a pivotal role in reducing competition pressures and helping species succession in the two-species model is demonstrated. Based on these specific coexistence results, I introduce and explain theoretically the allelopathic effect of a toxic species as a ‘pseudo-mixotrophy’—a mechanism of ‘if you cannot beat them or eat them, just kill them by chemical weapons’. The impact of this mechanism of species succession by pseudo-mixotrophy in the form of alleopathy is discussed in the context of current understanding on straight mixotrophy and resource-species relationship among phytoplankton species.

Effect of culture medium and cryoprotectants on the growth and survival of probiotic lactobacilli during freeze drying

To investigate the effects of the medium and cryoprotective agents used on the growth and survival of Lactobacillus plantarum and Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG during freeze drying. A complex medium was developed consisting primarily of glucose, yeast extract and vegetable-derived peptone. Trehalose, sucrose and sorbitol were examined for their ability to protect the cells during freeze drying. Using standardized amount of cells and the optimized freeze drying media, the effect of the growth medium on cell survival during freeze drying was investigated. The results showed that glucose and yeast extract were the most important growth factors, while sucrose offered better protection than trehalose and sorbitol during freeze drying. When the cells were grown under carbon limiting conditions, their survival during freeze drying was significantly decreased. A clear relationship was observed between cell growth and the ability of the cells to survive during the freeze drying process. The survival of probiotic strains during freeze drying was shown to be dependent on the cryoprotectant used and the growth medium.

Predicting the thermal inactivation of bacteria in a solid matrix: simulation studies on the relative effects of microbial thermal resistance parameters and process conditions

A combined mathematical model for predicting heat penetration and microbial inactivation in a solid body heated by conduction was tested experimentally by inoculating agar cylinders with Salmonella typhimurium or Enterococcus faecium and heating in a water bath. Regions of growth where bacteria had survived after heating were measured by image analysis and compared with model predictions. Visualisation of the regions of growth was improved by incorporating chromogenic metabolic indicators into the agar. Preliminary tests established that the model performed satisfactorily with both test organisms and with cylinders of different diameter. The model was then used in simulation studies in which the parameters D, z, inoculum size, cylinder diameter and heating temperature were systematically varied. These simulations showed that the biological variables D, z and inoculum size had a relatively small effect on the time needed to eliminate bacteria at the cylinder axis in comparison with the physical variables heating temperature and cylinder diameter, which had a much greater relative effect. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Modelling the uptake and growth kinetics of Penicillium glabrum in a tannic acid-containing solid-state fermentation for tannase production

A mathematical growth model for the batch solid-state fermentation process for fungal tannase production was developed and tested experimentally. The unstructured model describes the uptake and growth kinetics of Penicillium glabrum in an impregnated polyurethane foam substrate system. In general, good agreement between the experimental data and model simulations was obtained. Biomass, tannase and spore production are described by logistic kinetics with a time delay between biomass production and tannase and spore formation. Possible induction mechanisms for the latter are proposed. Hydrolysis of tannic acid, the main carbon source in the substrate system, is reasonably well described with Michaelis-Menten kinetics with time-varying enzyme concentration but a more complex reaction mechanism is suspected. The metabolism of gallic acid, a tannase-hydrolysis product of tannic acid, was shown to be growth limiting during the main growth phase. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal changes in olive fruit characteristics and oil accumulation during ripening process

Olive fruits of three of the most important Spanish and Italian cultivars, 'Picual', `Hojiblanca' and 'Frantoio', were harvested at bi-weekly periods during three crop seasons to study their development and ripening process. Fresh and dry weights and ripening index were determined for fruit, while dry matter, oil and moisture contents were determined in both fruit and pulp (flesh). Fruit growth rate and oil accumulation were calculated. Each olive cultivar showed a different ripening pattern, 'Hojiblanca' being the last one to maturate. Fruit weight increased, decreasing its growth rate from the middle of November. Dry matter and moisture contents decreased during ripening in pulp and fruit, 'Hojiblanca' showing the highest values for both. Oil content, when expressed on a fresh weight basis, increased in all cultivars, although for the last time period showed variations due to climatic conditions. During ripening, oil content on a dry weight basis increased in fruit, but oil biosynthesis in flesh ceased from November. Olive fruits presented lower oil and higher dry matter contents in the year of lowest rainfall. Therefore fruit harvesting should be carried out from the middle of November in order to obtain the highest oil yield and avoid natural fruit drop. (C) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry.

Crosstalk with insulin and dependence on PI3K/Akt/mTOR rather than MAPK pathways in upregulation of basal growth following long-term oestrogen deprivation in three human breast cancer cell lines

Background: MCF-7, T-47-D, ZR-75-1 human breast cancer cell lines are dependent on oestrogen for growth but can adapt to grow during long-term oestrogen deprivation. This serves as a model for identification of therapeutic targets in endocrine-resistant breast cancer. Methods: An overlooked complication of this model is that it involves more than non-addition of oestrogen, and inadequate attention has been given to separating molecular events associated with each of the culture manipulations. Results: Insulin and oestradiol were shown to protect MCF-7 cells against upregulation of basal growth, demonstrating a crosstalk in the growth adaptation process. Increased phosphorylation of p44/42MAPK and c-Raf reflected removal of insulin from the medium and proliferation of all three cell lines was inhibited to a lesser extent by PD98059 and U0126 following long-term oestrogen/insulin withdrawal, demonstrating a reduced dependence on the MAPK pathway. By contrast, long-term oestrogen/insulin deprivation did not alter levels of phosphorylated Akt and did not alter the dose-response of growth inhibition with LY294002 in any of the three cell lines. The IGF1R inhibitor picropodophyllin inhibited growth of all MCF-7 cells but only in the long-term oestrogen/insulin-deprived cells was this paralleled by reduction in phosphorylated p70S6K, a downstream target of mTOR. Long-term oestrogen/insulin-deprived MCF-7 cells had higher levels of phosphorylated p70S6K and developed increased sensitivity to growth inhibition by rapamycin. Conclusions: The greater sensitivity to growth inhibition by rapamycin in all three cell lines following long-term oestrogen/insulin deprivation suggests rapamycin-based therapies might be more effective in breast cancers with acquired oestrogen resistance. Keywords Akt, breast cancer cells, endocrine resistance, insulin, MAPK, MCF-7 cells, mTOR, oestrogen, oestrogen-deprived, PI3K, picropodophyllin, rapamycin, T-47-D cells, ZR-75-1 cells

The growth of private property vehicles in the UK: causes and conditions

The UK private indirect real estate market has seen a rapid growth in the last seven years. The gross asset value (GAV) of the private property vehicle (PPV) market has about tripled from a GAV of £22.6bn in 1998 to a GAV of £67.1 billion at the end of 2005 (OPC, 2006). Although this trend of growing syndication of real estate is not only a UK phenomenon, the rate of growth has been significantly faster in the UK. For example the German open-ended funds have grown over the same period from €50.4bn to €85.1bn (BVI, 2006). In the US the market capitalization of equity real estate investment trusts (REIT) has grown 155% since 1999 to US$ 301bn (NAREIT, 2006). Each jurisdiction is offering different formats to invest indirectly into real estate but at the core all these vehicles are the same in that they provide a different route for investors to access real estate. In the UK, although the range of ‘products’ is now quite diverse, all structures have in common the ‘wrapping’ of property assets into a multi-investor vehicle. This paper examines the nature, pattern and process of market growth in PPVs and constructs a series of associations between causes and effects to explain this market shift.

Effects of repeated cycles of acid challenge and growth on the phenotype and virulence of Salmonella enterica

Aims: The aim of the study was to investigate how stresses like low pH, which may be encountered in farms or food preparation premises, shape populations of Salmonella enterica by the selection of stress-resistant variants. Methods and Results: Stationary-phase cultures of S. enterica serovar Enteritidis and serovar Typhimurium (one strain of each) were exposed to pH 2Æ5 for up to 4 h, followed by growth at pH 7 for 48 h. This process was repeated 15 times in two separate experiments, which increased the acid resistance of the three out of four populations we obtained, by three- to fourfold. Sustainable variants derived from the populations showed changes in colony morphology, expression of SEF17 fimbriae, growth, increased heat resistance and reduced virulence. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that low pH environments can select for populations of S. enterica with persistent phenotypic changes such as increased acid resistance and occasionally increased SEF17 expression and lower virulence. Significance and Impact of the Study: There is a common belief that increased acid resistance coincides with increased virulence. This study demonstrates for the first time that increased acid resistance often impairs virulence and affects the general phenotype of S. enterica.

Genes driving potato tuber initiation and growth: identification based on transcriptional changes using the POCI array

The increasing amount of available expressed gene sequence data makes whole-transcriptome analysis of certain crop species possible. Potato currently has the second largest number of publicly available expressed sequence tag (EST) sequences among the Solanaceae. Most of these ESTs, plus other proprietary sequences, were combined and used to generate a unigene assembly. The set of 246,182 sequences produced 46,345 unigenes, which were used to design a 44K 60-mer oligo array (Potato Oligo Chip Initiative: POCI). In this study, we attempt to identify genes controlling and driving the process of tuber initiation and growth by implementing large-scale transcriptional changes using the newly developed POCI array. Major gene expression profiles could be identified exhibiting differential expression at key developmental stages. These profiles were associated with functional roles in cell division and growth. A subset of genes involved in the regulation of the cell cycle, based on their Gene Ontology classification, exhibit a clear transient upregulation at tuber onset indicating increased cell division during these stages. The POCI array allows the study of potato gene expression on a much broader level than previously possible and will greatly enhance analysis of transcriptional control mechanisms in a wide range of potato research areas. POCI sequence and annotation data are publicly available through the POCI database (http://pgrc.ipk-gatersleben.de/poci).

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Earthworm distribution and abundance predicted by a process-based model

Earthworms are significant ecosystem engineers and are an important component of the diet of many vertebrates and invertebrates, so the ability to predict their distribution and abundance would have wide application in ecology, conservation and land management. Earthworm viability is known to be affected by the availability and quality of food resources, soil water conditions and temperature, but has not yet been modelled mechanistically to link effects on individuals to field population responses. Here we present a novel model capable of predicting the effects of land management and environmental conditions on the distribution and abundance of Aporrectodea caliginosa, the dominant earthworm species in agroecosystems. Our process-based approach uses individual based modelling (IBM), in which each individual has its own energy budget. Individual earthworm energy budgets follow established principles of physiological ecology and are parameterised for A. caliginosa from experimental measurements under optimal conditions. Under suboptimal conditions (e.g. food limitation, low soil temperatures and water contents) reproduction is prioritised over growth. Good model agreement to independent laboratory data on individual cocoon production and growth of body mass, under variable feeding and temperature conditions support our representation of A. caliginosa physiology through energy budgets. Our mechanistic model is able to accurately predict A. caliginosa distribution and abundance in spatially heterogeneous soil profiles representative of field study conditions. Essential here is the explicit modelling of earthworm behaviour in the soil profile. Local earthworm movement responds to a trade-off between food availability and soil water conditions, and this determines the spatiotemporal distribution of the population in the soil profile. Importantly, multiple environmental variables can be manipulated simultaneously in the model to explore earthworm population exposure and effects to combinations of stressors. Potential applications include prediction of the population-level effects of pesticides and changes in soil management e.g. conservation tillage and climate change.

Modeling growth strategy in a biotechnology startup firm

The top managers of a biotechnology startup firm agreed to participate in a system dynamics modeling project to help them think about the firm's growth strategy. The article describes how the model was created and used to stimulate debate and discussion about growth management. The paper highlights several novel features about the process used for capturing management team knowledge. A heavy emphasis was placed on mapping the operating structure of the factory and distribution channels. Qualitative modeling methods (structural diagrams, descriptive variable names, and friendly algebra) were used to capture the management team's descriptions of the business. Simulation scenarios were crafted to stimulate debate about strategic issues such as capacity allocation, capacity expansion, customer recruitment, customer retention, and market growth, and to engage the management team in using the computer to design strategic scenarios. The article concludes with comments on the impact of the project.

R&D offshoring and the productivity growth of European regions

The recent increase in R&D offshoring has raised fears that knowledge and competitiveness in advanced countries may be at risk of ‘hollowing out’. At the same time, economic research has stressed that this process is also likely to allow some reverse technology transfer and foster growth at home. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the extent to which R&D offshoring is associated with productivity dynamics of European regions. We find that offshoring regions have higher productivity growth, but this positive effect fades with the number of investment projects carried out abroad. A large and positive correlation emerges between the extent of R&D offshoring and the home region productivity growth, supporting the idea that carrying out R&D abroad strengthens European competitiveness.