Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. II: Annual and interannual variability

The annual and interannual variability of idealized, linear, equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere is investigated using the temperature and velocity fields from the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset. Peak Kelvin wave activity occurs during solstice seasons at 100 hPa, during December-February at 70 hPa and in the easterly to westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase transition at 50 hPa. Peak Rossby-gravity wave activity occurs during equinox seasons at 100 hPa, during June-August/September-November at 70 hPa and in the westerly to easterly QBO phase transition at 50 hPa. Although neglect of wind shear means that the results for inertio-gravity waves are likely to be less accurate, they are still qualitatively reasonable and an annual cycle is observed in these waves at 100 hPa and 70 hPa. Inertio-gravity waves with n = 1 are correlated with the QBO at 50 hPa, but the eastward inertio-gravity n = 0 wave is not, due to its very fast vertical group velocity in all background winds. The relative importance of different wave types in driving the QBO at 50 hPa is also discussed. The strongest acceleration appears to be provided by the Kelvin wave while the acceleration provided by the Rossby-gravity wave is negligible. Of the higher-frequency waves, the westward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave appears able to contribute more to the acceleration of the 50 hPa mean zonal wind than the eastward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave.

Variability of the accommodation response in early onset myopia

Purpose. Hyperopic retinal defocus (blur) is thought to be a cause of myopia. If the retinal image of an object is not clearly focused, the resulting blur is thought to cause the continuing lengthening of the eyeball during development causing a permanent refractive error. Both lag of accommodation, especially for near targets, and greater variability in the accommodative response, have been suggested as causes of increased hyperopic retinal blur. Previous studies of lag of accommodation show variable findings. In comparison, greater variability in the accommodative response has been demonstrated in adults with late onset myopia but has not been tested in children. This study looked at the lag and variability of accommodation in children with early onset myopia. Methods. Twenty-one myopic and 18 emmetropic children were tested. Dynamic measures of accommodation and pupil size were made using eccentric photorefraction (Power Refractor) while children viewed targets set at three different accommodative demands (0.25, 2, and 4 D). Results. We found no difference in accommodative lag between groups. However, the accommodative response was more variable in the myopes than emmetropes when viewing both the near (4 D) and far (0.25 D) targets. Since pupil size and variability also varied, we analyzed the data to determine whether this could account for the inter-group differences in accommodation variability. Variation in these factors was not found to be sufficient to explain these differences. Changes in the accommodative response variability with target distance were similar to patterns reported previously in adult emmetropes and late onset myopes. Conclusions. Children with early onset myopia demonstrate greater accommodative variability than emmetropic children, and have similar patterns of response to adult late onset myopes. This increased variability could result in an increase in retinal blur for both near and far targets. The role of accommodative variability in the etiology of myopia is discussed.

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves

Instrumental observations1, 2 and reconstructions3, 4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past 150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5, 6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity2 and African Sahel3, 4, 5 and Amazonian5 droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations6, 7, 8, 9, 10. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures11, 12, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions6, 9 and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Therapeutic benefit of low-dose clopidogrel in patients undergoing carotid surgery is linked to variability in the platelet adenosine diphosphate response and patients' weight

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We have previously shown that a single 75-mg tablet of clopidogrel, taken before carotid endarterectomy, significantly reduces postoperative embolization, a marker of thromboembolic stroke. This study explores the antiplatelet effect of this submaximal dose. METHODS: Fifty-six patients on long-term aspirin (150 mg) were randomized to 75 mg clopidogrel or placebo before carotid endarterectomy. Blood samples were taken pre- and postdrug administration and at the end of surgery to measure platelet activation and adenosine diphosphate (ADP) response by flow cytometry and aggregometry. RESULTS: Surgery produced a significant rise in platelet activation in vivo as evidenced by a rise in the percentage of monocyte-platelet aggregates in patients given placebo, but this was not seen in patients receiving clopidogrel. Before surgery, clopidogrel produced a significant reduction in the platelet response to ADP; for example, with 10(-6)M ADP, 77.32+/-2.3% bound fibrinogen in placebo group compared with 67.16+/-3.1% after clopidogrel (P=0.01). This was accentuated after surgery when the percentage of platelets binding fibrinogen in response to ADP was 76.53+/-2.2% in patients given placebo and 62.84+/-3.3% in the clopidogrel group (P=0.002). Similar differences were seen over a range of ADP concentrations and by aggregometry. Platelet responsiveness before treatment was highly variable and was positively correlated with the inhibitory effect of clopidogrel; patients with the highest baseline response to ADP showed the greatest response to clopidogrel. A negative correlation was seen between the effect of clopidogrel and patients' weight (r=0.57; P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: These results explain how a single 75-mg dose of clopidogrel produces a significant clinical impact on embolization.

Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation1, 2 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established3, 4, 5. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability6, 7, 8, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude1, 6, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide1, 2, 3, 4, 9. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database10, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.

Cue properties change timing strategies in group movement synchronisation

To maintain synchrony in group activities, each individual within the group must continuously correct their movements to remain in time with the temporal cues available. Cues might originate from one or more members of the group. Current research suggests that when synchronising movements, individuals optimise their performance in terms of minimising variability of timing errors (asynchronies) between external cues and their own movements. However, the cost of this is an increase in the timing variability of their own movements. Here we investigate whether an individual’s timing strategy changes according to the task, in a group scenario. To investigate this, we employed a novel paradigm that positioned six individuals to form two chains with common origin and termination on the circumference of a circle. We found that participants with access to timing cues from only one other member used a strategy to minimise their asynchrony variance. In contrast, the participant at the common termination of the two chains, who was required to integrate timing cues from two members, used a strategy that minimised movement variability. We conclude that humans are able to flexibly switch timekeeping strategies to maintain task demands and thus optimise the temporal performance of their movements.