Conservation strategy maps: a tool to facilitate biodiversity action planning illustrated using the heath fritillary butterfly

1. The UK Biodiversity Action Plan (UKBAP) identifies invertebrate species in danger of national extinction. For many of these species, targets for recovery specify the number of populations that should exist by a specific future date but offer no procedure to plan strategically to achieve the target for any species. 2. Here we describe techniques based upon geographic information systems (GIS) that produce conservation strategy maps (CSM) to assist with achieving recovery targets based on all available and relevant information. 3. The heath fritillary Mellicta athalia is a UKBAP species used here to illustrate the use of CSM. A phase 1 habitat survey was used to identify habitat polygons across the county of Kent, UK. These were systematically filtered using relevant habitat, botanical and autecological data to identify seven types of polygon, including those with extant colonies or in the vicinity of extant colonies, areas managed for conservation but without colonies, and polygons that had the appropriate habitat structure and may therefore be suitable for reintroduction. 4. Five clusters of polygons of interest were found across the study area. The CSM of two of them are illustrated here: the Blean Wood complex, which contains the existing colonies of heath fritillary in Kent, and the Orlestone Forest complex, which offers opportunities for reintroduction. 5. Synthesis and applications. Although the CSM concept is illustrated here for the UK, we suggest that CSM could be part of species conservation programmes throughout the world. CSM are dynamic and should be stored in electronic format, preferably on the world-wide web, so that they can be easily viewed and updated. CSM can be used to illustrate opportunities and to develop strategies with scientists and non-scientists, enabling the engagement of all communities in a conservation programme. CSM for different years can be presented to illustrate the progress of a plan or to provide continuous feedback on how a field scenario develops.

Conservation strategy maps: a tool to facilitate biodiversity action planning illustrated using the heath fritillary butterfly

1. The UK Biodiversity Action Plan (UKBAP) identifies invertebrate species in danger of national extinction. For many of these species, targets for recovery specify the number of populations that should exist by a specific future date but offer no procedure to plan strategically to achieve the target for any species. 2. Here we describe techniques based upon geographic information systems (GIS) that produce conservation strategy maps (CSM) to assist with achieving recovery targets based on all available and relevant information. 3. The heath fritillary Mellicta athalia is a UKBAP species used here to illustrate the use of CSM. A phase 1 habitat survey was used to identify habitat polygons across the county of Kent, UK. These were systematically filtered using relevant habitat, botanical and autecological data to identify seven types of polygon, including those with extant colonies or in the vicinity of extant colonies, areas managed for conservation but without colonies, and polygons that had the appropriate habitat structure and may therefore be suitable for reintroduction. 4. Five clusters of polygons of interest were found across the study area. The CSM of two of them are illustrated here: the Blean Wood complex, which contains the existing colonies of heath fritillary in Kent, and the Orlestone Forest complex, which offers opportunities for reintroduction. 5. Synthesis and applications. Although the CSM concept is illustrated here for the UK, we suggest that CSM could be part of species conservation programmes throughout the world. CSM are dynamic and should be stored in electronic format, preferably on the world-wide web, so that they can be easily viewed and updated. CSM can be used to illustrate opportunities and to develop strategies with scientists and non-scientists, enabling the engagement of all communities in a conservation programme. CSM for different years can be presented to illustrate the progress of a plan or to provide continuous feedback on how a field scenario develops.

Geoarchaeological investigations of midden-formation processes in the early to late Neolithic levels at Catalhoyuk, Turkey ca. 8550-8370 cal BP.

Anthropogenic midden deposits are remarkably well preserved at the Neolithic settlement of atalhöyük and provide significant archaeological information on the types and nature of activities occurring at the site. To decipher their complex stratigraphy and to investigate formation processes, a combination of geoarchaeological techniques was used. Deposits were investigated from the early ceramic to late Neolithic levels, targeting continuous sequences to examine high resolution and broader scale changes in deposition. Thin-section micromorphology combined with targeted phytolith and geochemical analyses indicates they are composed of a diverse range of ashes and other charred and siliceous plant materials, with inputs of decayed plants and organic matter, fecal waste, and sedimentary aggregates, each with diverse depositional pathways. Activities identified include in situ burning, with a range of different fuel types that may be associated with different activities. The complexity and heterogeneity of the midden deposits, and thus the necessity of employing an integrated microstratigraphic approach is demonstrated, as a prerequisite for cultural and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Temporal and spatial variability of auroral forms in the 10–14 MLT sector: Relationship to plasma convection and solar wind-magnetosphere coupling

Ground-based observations of dayside auroral forms and magnetic perturbations in the arctic sectors of Svalbard and Greenland, in combination with the high-resolution measurements of ionospheric ion drift and temperature by the EISCAT radar, are used to study temporal/spatial structures of cusp-type auroral forms in relation to convection. Large-scale patterns of equivalent convection in the dayside polar ionosphere are derived from the magnetic observations in Greenland and Svalbard. This information is used to estimate the ionospheric convection pattern in the vicinity of the cusp/cleft aurora. The reported observations, covering the period 0700-1130 UT, on January 11, 1993, are separated into four intervals according to the observed characteristics of the aurora and ionospheric convection. The morphology and intensity of the aurora are very different in quiet and disturbed intervals. A latitudinally narrow zone of intense and dynamical 630.0 nm emission equatorward of 75 degrees MLAT, was observed during periods of enhanced antisunward convection in the cusp region. This (type 1 cusp aurora) is considered to be the signature of plasma entry via magnetopause reconnection at low magnetopause latitudes, i.e. the low-latitude boundary layer (LLB I,). Another zone of weak 630.0 nm emission (type 2 cusp aurora) was observed to extend up to high latitudes (similar to 79 degrees MLAT) during relatively quiet magnetic conditions, when indications of reverse (sunward) convection was observed in the dayside polar cap. This is postulated to be a signature of merging between a northward directed IMF (B-z > 0) and the geomagnetic field poleward of the cusp. The coexistence of type 1 and 2 auroras was observed under intermediate circumstances. The optical observations from Svalbard and Greenland were also used to determine the temporal and spatial evolution of type 1 auroral forms, i.e. poleward-moving auroral events occurring in the vicinity of a rotational convection reversal in the early post-noon sector. Each event appeared as a local brightening at the equatorward boundary of the pre-existing type 1 cusp aurora, followed by poleward and eastward expansions of luminosity. The auroral events were associated with poleward-moving surges of enhanced ionospheric convection and F-layer ion temperature as observed by the EISCAT radar in Tromso. The EISCAT ion flow data in combination with the auroral observations show strong evidence for plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary.

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to he stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase H and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Neural network feature maps for Chinese phonemes

It has been shown through a number of experiments that neural networks can be used for a phonetic typewriter. Algorithms can be looked on as producing self-organizing feature maps which correspond to phonemes. In the Chinese language the utterance of a Chinese character consists of a very simple string of Chinese phonemes. With this as a starting point, a neural network feature map for Chinese phonemes can be built up. In this paper, feature map structures for Chinese phonemes are discussed and tested. This research on a Chinese phonetic feature map is important both for Chinese speech recognition and for building a Chinese phonetic typewriter.

Forecast impact of targeted observations: sensitivity to observation error and proximity to steep orography

For a targeted observations case, the dependence of the size of the forecast impact on the targeted dropsonde observation error in the data assimilation is assessed. The targeted observations were made in the lee of Greenland; the dependence of the impact on the proximity of the observations to the Greenland coast is also investigated. Experiments were conducted using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), over a limited-area domain at 24-km grid spacing, with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) scheme. Reducing the operational dropsonde observation errors by one-half increases the maximum forecast improvement from 5% to 7%–10%, measured in terms of total energy. However, the largest impact is seen by replacing two dropsondes on the Greenland coast with two farther from the steep orography; this increases the maximum forecast improvement from 5% to 18% for an 18-h forecast (using operational observation errors). Forecast degradation caused by two dropsonde observations on the Greenland coast is shown to arise from spreading of data by the background errors up the steep slope of Greenland. Removing boundary layer data from these dropsondes reduces the forecast degradation, but it is only a partial solution to this problem. Although only from one case study, these results suggest that observations positioned within a correlation length scale of steep orography may degrade the forecast through the anomalous upslope spreading of analysis increments along terrain-following model levels.

A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century

A high-resolution GCM is found to simulate precipitation and surface energy balance of high latitudes with high accuracy. This opens new possibilities to investigate the future mass balance of polar glaciers and its effect on sea level. The surface mass balance of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is simulated using the ECHAM3 GCM with TI06 horizontal resolution. With this model, two 5-year integrations for the present and doubled carbon dioxide conditions based on the boundary conditions provided by the ECHAM1/T21 transient experiment have been conducted. A comparison of the two experiments over Greenland and Antarctica shows to what extent the effect of climate change on the mass balance on the two largest glaciers of the world can differ. On Greenland one sees a slight decrease in accumulation and a substantial increase in melt, while on Antarctica a large increase in accumulation without melt is projected. Translating the mass balances into terms of sea-level equivalent. the Greenland discharge causes a sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr−1, while the accumulation on Antarctica tends to lower it by 0.9 mm yr−1. The change in the combined mass balance of the two continents is almost zero. The sea level change of the next century can be affected more effectively by the thermal expansion of seawater and the mass balance of smaller glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

Quantifying uncertainty in remotely sensed land cover maps

Remotely sensed land cover maps are increasingly used as inputs into environmental simulation models whose outputs inform decisions and policy-making. Risks associated with these decisions are dependent on model output uncertainty, which is in turn affected by the uncertainty of land cover inputs. This article presents a method of quantifying the uncertainty that results from potential mis-classification in remotely sensed land cover maps. In addition to quantifying uncertainty in the classification of individual pixels in the map, we also address the important case where land cover maps have been upscaled to a coarser grid to suit the users’ needs and are reported as proportions of land cover type. The approach is Bayesian and incorporates several layers of modelling but is straightforward to implement. First, we incorporate data in the confusion matrix derived from an independent field survey, and discuss the appropriate way to model such data. Second, we account for spatial correlation in the true land cover map, using the remotely sensed map as a prior. Third, spatial correlation in the mis-classification characteristics is induced by modelling their variance. The result is that we are able to simulate posterior means and variances for individual sites and the entire map using a simple Monte Carlo algorithm. The method is applied to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales, a map used as an input into a current dynamic carbon flux model.