Progress on “Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability”

The task of assessing the likelihood and extent of coastal flooding is hampered by the lack of detailed information on near-shore bathymetry. This is required as an input for coastal inundation models, and in some cases the variability in the bathymetry can impact the prediction of those areas likely to be affected by flooding in a storm. The constant monitoring and data collection that would be required to characterise the near-shore bathymetry over large coastal areas is impractical, leaving the option of running morphodynamic models to predict the likely bathymetry at any given time. However, if the models are inaccurate the errors may be significant if incorrect bathymetry is used to predict possible flood risks. This project is assessing the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the predictions from a simple model, by rigorously incorporating observations of the bathymetry into the model, to bring the model closer to the actual situation. Currently we are concentrating on Morecambe Bay as a primary study site, as it has a highly dynamic inter-tidal zone, with changes in the course of channels in this zone impacting the likely locations of flooding from storms. We are working with SAR images, LiDAR, and swath bathymetry to give us the observations over a 2.5 year period running from May 2003 – November 2005. We have a LiDAR image of the entire inter-tidal zone for November 2005 to use as validation data. We have implemented a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, to investigate the improvements in performance of the data assimilation compared to the previous scheme which was based on the optimal interpolation method. We are currently evaluating these different data assimilation techniques, using 22 SAR data observations. We will also include the LiDAR data and swath bathymetry to improve the observational coverage, and investigate the impact of different types of observation on the predictive ability of the model. We are also assessing the ability of the data assimilation scheme to recover the correct bathymetry after storm events, which can dramatically change the bathymetry in a short period of time.

Data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability

This paper gives an overview of the project Changing Coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability. This project is investigating whether data assimilation could be used to improve coastal morphodynamic modeling. The concept of data assimilation is described, and the benefits that data assimilation could bring to coastal morphodynamic modeling are discussed. Application of data assimilation in a simple 1D morphodynamic model is presented. This shows that data assimilation can be used to improve the current state of the model bathymetry, and to tune the model parameter. We now intend to implement these ideas in a 2D morphodynamic model, for two study sites. The logistics of this are considered, including model design and implementation, and data requirement issues. We envisage that this work could provide a means for maintaining up-to-date information on coastal bathymetry, without the need for costly survey campaigns. This would be useful for a range of coastal management issues, including coastal flood forecasting.

Cyclam derivatives containing three acetate pendant arms: synthesis, acid-base, metal complexation and structural studies

The ligands 1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane-1,4,8-triacetic-11-methylphosphonic acid (H(5)te3a1p) and 1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane-1,4,8-triacetic acid (H(3)te3a) were synthesized, the former one for the first time. The syntheses of these ligands were achieved from reactions on 1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane-1,4,8-tris( carbamoylmethyl) hydroiodide (te3am center dot HI), and compounds (Hte3am)(+), 1, and (H(7)te3a1p)(2+), 4, were characterized by X-ray diffraction. Structures of two other compounds resulting from side-reactions, (H(2)te2lac)(2+), 2, and (H(4)te2a2p(OEt2))(2+), 3, were also determined by X-ray diffraction. Potentiometric titrations of H(5)te3a1p and H(3)te3a were performed at 298.2 K and ionic strength 0.10 mol dm(-3) in NMe4NO3 to determine their protonation constants. H-1 and P-31 NMR titrations of H(5)te3a1p were carried out in order to determine the very high first protonation constant of this ligand and to elucidate the sequence of protonation. Potentiometric studies of the two ligands with Ca2+, Mn2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+ and Pb2+ metal ions performed in the same experimental conditions showed that the complexes of H5te3a1p present very high thermodynamic stability while complexes of H(3)te3a, particularly Co2+ and Zn2+, are even more stable. P-31 NMR spectra of the cadmium(II) complex of H(5)te3a1p showed that the phosphonate moiety was coordinated to the metal ion. The UV-vis-NIR spectroscopic data and magnetic moment values of Co2+ and Ni2+ complexes of H(5)te3a1p and H(3)te3a together with the EPR of the corresponding Cu2+ complexes indicated that all these complexes adopt distorted octahedral coordination geometries in solution. This was confirmed by the single crystal structure of [Cu-2(Hte3a)(H2O)(3)Cl]Cl-0.5(ClO4)(0.5) center dot 2H(2)O that showed two distorted octahedral copper centres bridged by a N-acetate pendant arm with a Cu center dot center dot center dot Cu distance of 4.890(1) angstrom. The first one is encapsulated into the macrocyclic cavity surrounded by four nitrogen and two oxygen donors from the macrocycle, whereas the second one is on the periphery of the macrocycle and is coordinated to two oxygen atoms of one acetate pendant arm in chelating fashion, one chloride and three water molecules.

How the magnetopause transition parameter works

The transition parameter is based on the electron characteristics close to the Earth's dayside magnetopause, but reveals systematic ordering of other, independent, data such as the ion flow, density and temperature and the rientation and strength of the magnetic field. Potentially, therefore, it is a very useful tool for resolving ambiguities in a sequence of satellite data caused by the effects of structure and motion of the boundary; however, its application has been limited because there has been no clear understanding of how it works. We present an analysis of data from the AMPTE-UKS satellite which shows that the transition parameter orders magnetopause data because magnetic reconnection generates newly-opened field lines which coat the boundary: a direct relationship is found with the time elapsed since the boundary-layer field line was opened. A simple model is used to reproduce this behaviour.

Asymmetric adjustment in the City of London office market

Earlier estimates of the City of London office market are extended by considering a longer time series of data, covering two cycles, and by explicitly modeling of asymmetric space market responses to employment and supply shocks. A long run structural model linking real rental levels, office-based employment and the supply of office space is estimated and then rental adjustment processes are modeled using an error correction model framework. Rental adjustment is seen to be asymmetric, depending both on the direction of the supply and demand shocks and on the state of the space market at the time of the shock. Vacancy adjustment does not display asymmetries. There is also a supply adjustment equation. Two three-equation systems, one with symmetric rental adjustment and the other with asymmetric adjustment, are subjected to positive and negative shocks to employment. These illustrate differences in the two systems.

Asymmetric space market adjustment in the London office market

Models of the City of London office market are extended by considering a longer time series of data, covering two cycles, and by explicit modeling of asymmetric rental response to supply and demand model. A long run structural model linking demand for office space, real rental levels and office-based employment is estimated and then rental adjustment processes are modeled using an error correction model framework. Adjustment processes are seen to be asymmetric, dependent both on the direction of the supply and demand shock and on the state of the rental market at the time of the shock. A complete system of equations is estimated: unit shocks produce oscillations but there is a return to a steady equilibrium state in the long run.

An effective approach for selection of terrain modelling method

This letter presents an effective approach for selection of appropriate terrain modeling methods in forming a digital elevation model (DEM). This approach achieves a balance between modeling accuracy and modeling speed. A terrain complexity index is defined to represent a terrain's complexity. A support vector machine (SVM) classifies terrain surfaces into either complex or moderate based on this index associated with the terrain elevation range. The classification result recommends a terrain modeling method for a given data set in accordance with its required modeling accuracy. Sample terrain data from the lunar surface are used in constructing an experimental data set. The results have shown that the terrain complexity index properly reflects the terrain complexity, and the SVM classifier derived from both the terrain complexity index and the terrain elevation range is more effective and generic than that designed from either the terrain complexity index or the terrain elevation range only. The statistical results have shown that the average classification accuracy of SVMs is about 84.3% ± 0.9% for terrain types (complex or moderate). For various ratios of complex and moderate terrain types in a selected data set, the DEM modeling speed increases up to 19.5% with given DEM accuracy.

The hemodynamic impulse response to a single neural event

This article investigates the relation between stimulus-evoked neural activity and cerebral hemodynamics. Specifically, the hypothesis is tested that hemodynamic responses can be modeled as a linear convolution of experimentally obtained measures of neural activity with a suitable hemodynamic impulse response function. To obtain a range of neural and hemodynamic responses, rat whisker pad was stimulated using brief (less than or equal to2 seconds) electrical stimuli consisting of single pulses (0.3 millisecond, 1.2 mA) combined both at different frequencies and in a paired-pulse design. Hemodynamic responses were measured using concurrent optical imaging spectroscopy and laser Doppler flowmetry, whereas neural responses were assessed through current source density analysis of multielectrode recordings from a single barrel. General linear modeling was used to deconvolve the hemodynamic impulse response to a single "neural event" from the hemodynamic and neural responses to stimulation. The model provided an excellent fit to the empirical data. The implications of these results for modeling schemes and for physiologic systems coupling neural and hemodynamic activity are discussed.

A land cover map of Latin America and the Caribbean in the framework of the SERENA project

Land cover maps at different resolutions and mapping extents contribute to modeling and support decision making processes. Because land cover affects and is affected by climate change, it is listed among the 13 terrestrial essential climate variables. This paper describes the generation of a land cover map for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the year 2008. It was developed in the framework of the project Latin American Network for Monitoring and Studying of Natural Resources (SERENA), which has been developed within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLaTIF). The SERENA land cover map for LAC integrates: 1) the local expertise of SERENA network members to generate the training and validation data, 2) a methodology for land cover mapping based on decision trees using MODIS time series, and 3) class membership estimates to account for pixel heterogeneity issues. The discrete SERENA land cover product, derived from class memberships, yields an overall accuracy of 84% and includes an additional layer representing the estimated per-pixel confidence. The study demonstrates in detail the use of class memberships to better estimate the area of scarce classes with a scattered spatial distribution. The land cover map is already available as a printed wall map and will be released in digital format in the near future. The SERENA land cover map was produced with a legend and classification strategy similar to that used by the North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) to generate a land cover map of the North American continent, that will allow to combine both maps to generate consistent data across America facilitating continental monitoring and modeling

Vertical propagation of information in a middle atmosphere data assimilation system by gravity-wave drag feedbacks

The mesospheric response to the 2002 Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is analysed using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS), where it represents a vertical propagation of information from the observations into the data-free mesosphere. The CMAM-DAS simulates a cooling in the lowest part of the mesosphere which is accomplished by resolved motions, but which is extended to the mid- to upper mesosphere by the response of the model's non-orographic gravity-wave drag parameterization to the change in zonal winds. The basic mechanism is that elucidated by Holton consisting of a net eastward wave-drag anomaly in the mesosphere during the SSW, although in this case there is a net upwelling in the polar mesosphere. Since the zonal-mean mesospheric response is shown to be predictable, this demonstrates that variations in the mesospheric state can be slaved to the lower atmosphere through gravity-wave drag.

Estimation of optimal gravity wave parameters for climate models using data assimilation

There is a current need to constrain the parameters of gravity wave drag (GWD) schemes in climate models using observational information instead of tuning them subjectively. In this work, an inverse technique is developed using data assimilation principles to estimate gravity wave parameters. Because mostGWDschemes assume instantaneous vertical propagation of gravity waves within a column, observations in a single column can be used to formulate a one-dimensional assimilation problem to estimate the unknown parameters. We define a cost function that measures the differences between the unresolved drag inferred from observations (referred to here as the ‘observed’ GWD) and the GWD calculated with a parametrisation scheme. The geometry of the cost function presents some difficulties, including multiple minima and ill-conditioning because of the non-independence of the gravity wave parameters. To overcome these difficulties we propose a genetic algorithm to minimize the cost function, which provides a robust parameter estimation over a broad range of prescribed ‘true’ parameters. When real experiments using an independent estimate of the ‘observed’ GWD are performed, physically unrealistic values of the parameters can result due to the non-independence of the parameters. However, by constraining one of the parameters to lie within a physically realistic range, this degeneracy is broken and the other parameters are also found to lie within physically realistic ranges. This argues for the essential physical self-consistency of the gravity wave scheme. A much better fit to the observed GWD at high latitudes is obtained when the parameters are allowed to vary with latitude. However, a close fit can be obtained either in the upper or the lower part of the profiles, but not in both at the same time. This result is a consequence of assuming an isotropic launch spectrum. The changes of sign in theGWDfound in the tropical lower stratosphere, which are associated with part of the quasi-biennial oscillation forcing, cannot be captured by the parametrisation with optimal parameters.

Free gravity waves and balanced dynamics

It is shown how a renormalization technique, which is a variant of classical Krylov–Bogolyubov–Mitropol’skii averaging, can be used to obtain slow evolution equations for the vortical and inertia–gravity wave components of the dynamics in a rotating flow. The evolution equations for each component are obtained to second order in the Rossby number, and the nature of the coupling between the two is analyzed carefully. It is also shown how classical balance models such as quasigeostrophic dynamics and its second-order extension appear naturally as a special case of this renormalized system, thereby providing a rigorous basis for the slaving approach where only the fast variables are expanded. It is well known that these balance models correspond to a hypothetical slow manifold of the parent system; the method herein allows the determination of the dynamics in the neighborhood of such solutions. As a concrete illustration, a simple weak-wave model is used, although the method readily applies to more complex rotating fluid models such as the shallow-water, Boussinesq, primitive, and 3D Euler equations.

Curl free pressure gradients over orography in a solution of the fully compressible Euler equations with implicit treatment of acoustic and gravity waves

Steep orography can cause noisy solutions and instability in models of the atmosphere. A new technique for modelling flow over orography is introduced which guarantees curl free gradients on arbitrary grids, implying that the pressure gradient term is not a spurious source of vorticity. This mimetic property leads to better hydrostatic balance and better energy conservation on test cases using terrain following grids. Curl-free gradients are achieved by using the co-variant components of velocity over orography rather than the usual horizontal and vertical components. In addition, gravity and acoustic waves are treated implicitly without the need for mean and perturbation variables or a hydrostatic reference profile. This enables a straightforward description of the implicit treatment of gravity waves. Results are presented of a resting atmosphere over orography and the curl-free pressure gradient formulation is advantageous. Results of gravity waves over orography are insensitive to the placement of terrain-following layers. The model with implicit gravity waves is stable in strongly stratified conditions, with N∆t up to at least 10 (where N is the Brunt-V ̈ais ̈al ̈a frequency). A warm bubble rising over orography is simulated and the curl free pressure gradient formulation gives much more accurate results for this test case than a model without this mimetic property.