HDC poinsettia tracker: flexible graphical tracking software

Growing pot poinsettia and similar crops involves careful crop monitoring and management to ensure that height specifications are met. Graphical tracking represents a target driven approach to decision support with simple interpretation. HDC (Horticultural Development Council) Poinsettia Tracker implements a graphical track based on the Generalised Logistic Curve, similar to that of other tracking packages. Any set of curve parameters can be used to track crop progress. However, graphical tracks must be expected to be site and cultivar specific. By providing a simple Curve fitting function, growers can easily develop their own site and variety specific ideal tracks based on past records with increasing quality as more seasons' data are added. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Graphical tracking systems revisited: a practical approach to computer scheduling in horticulture

Graphical tracking is a technique for crop scheduling where the actual plant state is plotted against an ideal target curve which encapsulates all crop and environmental characteristics. Management decisions are made on the basis of the position of the actual crop against the ideal position. Due to the simplicity of the approach it is possible for graphical tracks to be developed on site without the requirement for controlled experimentation. Growth models and graphical tracks are discussed, and an implementation of the Richards curve for graphical tracking described. In many cases, the more intuitively desirable growth models perform sub-optimally due to problems with the specification of starting conditions, environmental factors outside the scope of the original model and the introduction of new cultivars. Accurate specification for a biological model requires detailed and usually costly study, and as such is not adaptable to a changing cultivar range and changing cultivation techniques. Fitting of a new graphical track for a new cultivar can be conducted on site and improved over subsequent seasons. Graphical tracking emphasises the current position relative to the objective, and as such does not require the time consuming or system specific input of an environmental history, although it does require detailed crop measurement. The approach is flexible and could be applied to a variety of specification metrics, with digital imaging providing a route for added value. For decision making regarding crop manipulation from the observed current state, there is a role for simple predictive modelling over the short term to indicate the short term consequences of crop manipulation.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association: tracking using graphical models

When performing data fusion, one often measures where targets were and then wishes to deduce where targets currently are. There has been recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data. This research has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships among the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit. Results for a multi-sensor scenario involving out-of-sequence data association are used to illustrate the utility of this approach in a specific context.

Application of the Lighthill-Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance to clear-air turbulence forecasting

A new method of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting based on the Lighthill–Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance and emission of inertia–gravity waves has been derived and applied on episodic and seasonal time scales. A scale analysis of this shallow-water theory for midlatitude synoptic-scale flows identifies advection of relative vorticity as the leading-order source term. Examination of leading- and second-order terms elucidates previous, more empirically inspired CAT forecast diagnostics. Application of the Lighthill–Ford theory to the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys CAT outbreak of 9 March 2006 results in good agreement with pilot reports of turbulence. Application of Lighthill–Ford theory to CAT forecasting for the 3 November 2005–26 March 2006 period using 1-h forecasts of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 2 1500 UTC model run leads to superior forecasts compared to the current operational version of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG1) algorithm, the most skillful operational CAT forecasting method in existence. The results suggest that major improvements in CAT forecasting could result if the methods presented herein become operational.

Designing flexible procurement systems

The systems used for the procurement of buildings are organizational systems. They involve people in a series of strategic decisions, and a pattern of roles, responsibilities and relationships that combine to form the organizational structure of the project. To ensure effectiveness of the building team, this organizational structure needs to be contingent upon the environment within which the construction project takes place. In addition, a changing environment means that the organizational structure within a project needs to be responsive, and dynamic. These needs are often not satisfied in the construction industry, due to the lack of analytical tools with which to analyse the environment and to design appropriate temporary organizations. This paper presents two techniques. First is the technique of "Environmental Complexity Analysis", which identifies the key variables in the environment of the construction project. These are classified as Financial, Legal, Technological, Aesthetic and Policy. It is proposed that their identification will set the parameters within which the project has to be managed. This provides a basis for the project managers to define the relevant set of decision points that will be required for the project. The Environmental Complexity Analysis also identifies the project's requirements for control systems concerning Budget, Contractual, Functional, Quality and Time control. The process of environmental scanning needs to be done at regular points during the procurement process to ensure that the organizational structure is adaptive to the changing environment. The second technique introduced is the technique of "3R analysis", being a graphical technique for describing and modelling Roles, Responsibilities and Relationships. A list of steps is introduced that explains the procedure recommended for setting up a flexible organizational structure that is responsive to the environment of the project. This is by contrast with the current trend towards predetermined procurement paths that may not always be in the best interests of the client.

Object displays and control of dynamic systems

Recent work has suggested that for some tasks, graphical displays which visually integrate information from more than one source offer an advantage over more traditional displays which present the same information in a separated format. Three experiments are described which investigate this claim using a task which requires subjects to control a dynamic system. In the first experiment, the integrated display is compared to two separated displays, one an animated mimic diagram, the other an alphanumeric display. The integrated display is shown to support better performance in a control task, but experiment 2 shows that part of this advantage may be due to its analogue nature. Experiment 3 considers performance on a fault detection task, and shows no difference between the integrated and separated displays. The paper concludes that previous claims made for integrated displays may not generalize from monitoring to control tasks.

PRISM and ENES: a European approach to Earth system modelling

Europe's widely distributed climate modelling expertise, now organized in the European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES), is both a strength and a challenge. Recognizing this, the European Union's Program for Integrated Earth System Modelling (PRISM) infrastructure project aims at designing a flexible and friendly user environment to assemble, run and post-process Earth System models. PRISM was started in December 2001 with a duration of three years. This paper presents the major stages of PRISM, including: (1) the definition and promotion of scientific and technical standards to increase component modularity; (2) the development of an end-to-end software environment (graphical user interface, coupling and I/O system, diagnostics, visualization) to launch, monitor and analyse complex Earth system models built around state-of-art community component models (atmosphere, ocean, atmospheric chemistry, ocean bio-chemistry, sea-ice, land-surface); and (3) testing and quality standards to ensure high-performance computing performance on a variety of platforms. PRISM is emerging as a core strategic software infrastructure for building the European research area in Earth system sciences. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A pattern language for goals

Previous work has established the value of goal-oriented approaches to requirements engineering. Achieving clarity and agreement about stakeholders’ goals and assumptions is critical for building successful software systems and managing their subsequent evolution. In general, this decision-making process requires stakeholders to understand the implications of decisions outside the domains of their own expertise. Hence it is important to support goal negotiation and decision making with description languages that are both precise and expressive, yet easy to grasp. This paper presents work in progress to develop a pattern language for describing goal refinement graphs. The language has a simple graphical notation, which is supported by a prototype editor tool, and a symbolic notation based on modal logic.

Design for design: support for creative practice in computer-supported collaborative work (CSCW) in design

This paper describes a novel methodology for observing and analysing collaborative design by using the concepts of cognitive dimensions related to concept-based misfit analysis. The study aims at gaining an insight into support for creative practice of graphical communication in collaborative design processes of designers while sketching within a shared white board and audio conferencing environment. Empirical data on design processes have been obtained from observation of groups of student designers solving an interior space-planning problem of a lounge-diner in a shared virtual environment. The results of the study provide recommendations for the design and development of interactive systems to support such collaborative design activities.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing protocols for nursery based scheduling trials

Most existing crop scheduling models are cultivar specific and are developed using academic resources. As such they rarely meet the particular needs of a grower. A series of protocols have been created to generate effective schedules for a changing product range using data generated on site at a commercial nursery. A screening programme has been developed to help determine a cultivar's photoperiod sensitivity and vernalisation requirement. Experimental conditions were obtained using a cold store facility set to 5degreesC and photoperiod cloches. Eight and 16 hour photoperiod treatments were achieved at low cost by growing plants in cloches of opaque plastic with a motorised rolling screen. Natural light conditions were extended where necessary using a high pressure sodium lamp. Batches of plants were grown according to different schedules based on these treatments. The screening programme found Coreopsis grandiflora 'Flying Saucers' to be a long day plant. Data to form the basis of graphical tracks was taken using variations on commercial schedules. The work provides a nursery based approach to the continuous improvement of crop scheduling practises.

Detecting recombination in 4-taxa DNA sequence alignments with Bayesian hidden Markov models and Markov chain Monte Carlo

This article presents a statistical method for detecting recombination in DNA sequence alignments, which is based on combining two probabilistic graphical models: (1) a taxon graph (phylogenetic tree) representing the relationship between the taxa, and (2) a site graph (hidden Markov model) representing interactions between different sites in the DNA sequence alignments. We adopt a Bayesian approach and sample the parameters of the model from the posterior distribution with Markov chain Monte Carlo, using a Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs-within-Gibbs scheme. The proposed method is tested on various synthetic and real-world DNA sequence alignments, and we compare its performance with the established detection methods RECPARS, PLATO, and TOPAL, as well as with two alternative parameter estimation schemes.

The assessment of GCSE art: Criterion-referencing and cognitive abilities

In this paper Cognitive Abilities Test scores are compared directly with moderated GCSE scores awarded to the same group of pupils. For ease of interpretation the comparisons are presented in a graphical form. Whilst some provisional and tentative conclusions are drawn about the reliability of GCSE art, questions are raised about the general validity of criterion-referenced assessment in this area.