Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration.

The influence of viscous and latent heating on crystal-rich magma flow in a conduit

The flow dynamics of crystal-rich high-viscosity magma is likely to be strongly influenced by viscous and latent heat release. Viscous heating is observed to play an important role in the dynamics of fluids with temperature-dependent viscosities. The growth of microlite crystals and the accompanying release of latent heat should play a similar role in raising fluid temperatures. Earlier models of viscous heating in magmas have shown the potential for unstable (thermal runaway) flow as described by a Gruntfest number, using an Arrhenius temperature dependence for the viscosity, but have not considered crystal growth or latent heating. We present a theoretical model for magma flow in an axisymmetric conduit and consider both heating effects using Finite Element Method techniques. We consider a constant mass flux in a 1-D infinitesimal conduit segment with isothermal and adiabatic boundary conditions and Newtonian and non-Newtonian magma flow properties. We find that the growth of crystals acts to stabilize the flow field and make the magma less likely to experience a thermal runaway. The additional heating influences crystal growth and can counteract supercooling from degassing-induced crystallization and drive the residual melt composition back towards the liquidus temperature. We illustrate the models with results generated using parameters appropriate for the andesite lava dome-forming eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. These results emphasize the radial variability of the magma. Both viscous and latent heating effects are shown to be capable of playing a significant role in the eruption dynamics of Soufriere Hills Volcano. Latent heating is a factor in the top two kilometres of the conduit and may be responsible for relatively short-term (days) transients. Viscous heating is less restricted spatially, but because thermal runaway requires periods of hundreds of days to be achieved, the process is likely to be interrupted. Our models show that thermal evolution of the conduit walls could lead to an increase in the effective diameter of flow and an increase in flux at constant magma pressure.

Selection-mutation balance models with epistatic selection

We present an application of birth-and-death processes on configuration spaces to a generalized mutation4 selection balance model. The model describes the aging of population as a process of accumulation of mu5 tations in a genotype. A rigorous treatment demands that mutations correspond to points in abstract spaces. 6 Our model describes an infinite-population, infinite-sites model in continuum. The dynamical equation which 7 describes the system, is of Kimura-Maruyama type. The problem can be posed in terms of evolution of states 8 (differential equation) or, equivalently, represented in terms of Feynman-Kac formula. The questions of interest 9 are the existence of a solution, its asymptotic behavior, and properties of the limiting state. In the non-epistatic 10 case the problem was posed and solved in [Steinsaltz D., Evans S.N., Wachter K.W., Adv. Appl. Math., 2005, 11 35(1)]. In our model we consider a topological space X as the space of positions of mutations and the influence of epistatic potentials

Modeling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments

[1] We present a new, process-based model of soil and stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC): the Integrated Catchments Model for Carbon (INCA-C). INCA-C is the first model of DOC cycling to explicitly include effects of different land cover types, hydrological flow paths, in-soil carbon biogeochemistry, and surface water processes on in-stream DOC concentrations. It can be calibrated using only routinely available monitoring data. INCA-C simulates daily DOC concentrations over a period of years to decades. Sources, sinks, and transformation of solid and dissolved organic carbon in peat and forest soils, wetlands, and streams as well as organic carbon mineralization in stream waters are modeled. INCA-C is designed to be applied to natural and seminatural forested and peat-dominated catchments in boreal and temperate regions. Simulations at two forested catchments showed that seasonal and interannual patterns of DOC concentration could be modeled using climate-related parameters alone. A sensitivity analysis showed that model predictions were dependent on the mass of organic carbon in the soil and that in-soil process rates were dependent on soil moisture status. Sensitive rate coefficients in the model included those for organic carbon sorption and desorption and DOC mineralization in the soil. The model was also sensitive to the amount of litter fall. Our results show the importance of climate variability in controlling surface water DOC concentrations and suggest the need for further research on the mechanisms controlling production and consumption of DOC in soils.

Hydraulic modeling of runoff over a rough surface under partial inundation

This study presents a numerical method to derive the Darcy- Weisbach friction coefficient for overland flow under partial inundation of surface roughness. To better account for the variable influence of roughness with varying levels of emergence, we model the flow over a network which evolves as the free surface rises. This network is constructed using a height numerical map, based on surface roughness data, and a discrete geometry skeletonization algorithm. By applying a hydraulic model to the flows through this network, local heads, velocities, and Froude and Reynolds numbers over the surface can be estimated. These quantities enable us to analyze the flow and ultimately to derive a bulk friction factor for flow over the entire surface which takes into account local variations in flow quantities. Results demonstrate that although the flow is laminar, head losses are chiefly inertial because of local flow disturbances. The results also emphasize that for conditions of partial inundation, flow resistance varies nonmonotonically but does generally increase with progressive roughness inundation.

Assessing the uncertainty associated with intermittent rainfall fields

[1] In many practical situations where spatial rainfall estimates are needed, rainfall occurs as a spatially intermittent phenomenon. An efficient geostatistical method for rainfall estimation in the case of intermittency has previously been published and comprises the estimation of two independent components: a binary random function for modeling the intermittency and a continuous random function that models the rainfall inside the rainy areas. The final rainfall estimates are obtained as the product of the estimates of these two random functions. However the published approach does not contain a method for estimation of uncertainties. The contribution of this paper is the presentation of the indicator maximum likelihood estimator from which the local conditional distribution of the rainfall value at any location may be derived using an ensemble approach. From the conditional distribution, representations of uncertainty such as the estimation variance and confidence intervals can be obtained. An approximation to the variance can be calculated more simply by assuming rainfall intensity is independent of location within the rainy area. The methodology has been validated using simulated and real rainfall data sets. The results of these case studies show good agreement between predicted uncertainties and measured errors obtained from the validation data.

First crystallographic signature of an acyclic peptide nanorod: molecular mechanism of nanorod formation by a self-assembled tetrapeptide

A terminally protected acyclic tetrapeptide Boc-Aib-Val-Aib-beta-Ala-OMe 1 (Aib: alpha-aminoisobutyric acid, beta-Ala: beta-Alanine) self-assembles into a continuous hydrogen-bonded supramolecular helix with an average diameter of 10Angstrom (1nm) starting from a double bend molecular conformation in crystals and further self-assembly of this supramolecular architecture leads to the formation of polydisperse nanorods of diameters 10-40 nm.

The ACTH response to dexamethasone in PTSD

Objective: Enhanced negative feedback and reduced adrenal output are two different models that have been put forth to explain the paradoxical observations of increased release of corticotropin-releasing factor in the face of low cortisol levels in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSID). To discriminate between these models, the authors measured levels of adrenocorticopic hormone (ACTH) and cortisol at baseline and in response to dexamethasone in medically healthy subjects with and without PTSID. Under conditions of enhanced negative feedback inhibition, ACTH levels would not be altered relative to cortisol levels, but the ACTH response to dexamethasone would be augmented, in concert with the enhanced cortisol response to dexamethasone. In contrast, under conditions of reduced adrenal output, ACTH levels would be expected to be higher at baseline relative to cortisol levels, but the ACTH response to dexamethasone would be unchanged in PTSID relative to healthy comparison subjects. Method: The ACTH and cortisol responses to 0.50 mg of dexamethasone were assessed in 19 subjects (15 men and four women) with PTSID and 19 subjects (14 men and five women) without psychiatric disorder. Results: The ACTH-to-cortisol ratio did not differ between groups before or after dexamethasone, but the subjects with PTSD showed greater suppression of ACTH (as well as cortisol) in response to dexamethasone. Conclusions: The data support the hypothesis of enhanced cortisol negative feedback inhibition of ACTH secretion at the level of the pituitary in PTSD. Pituitary glucocorticoid receptor binding, rather than low adrenal output, is implicated as a likely mechanism for this effect.

Fibrillisation of hydrophobically modified amyloid peptide fragments in an organic solvent

The self-assembly of a hydrophobically modified fragment of the amyloid beta(A beta) peptide has been studied in methanol. The peptide FFKLVFF is based on A beta(16-20) extended at the N terminus by two phenylalanine residues. The formation of amyloid-type fibrils is confirmed by Congo Red staining, thioflavin T fluorescence and circular dichroism experiments. FTIR points to the formation of beta-sheet structures in solution and in dried films and suggests that aggregation occurs at low concentration and is not strongly affected by further increase in concentration, i.e. the peptide is a strong fibril-former in methanol. UV fluorescence experiments on unstained peptide and CD point to the importance of aromatic interactions between phenylalanine groups in driving aggregation into beta-sheets. The CD spectrum differs from that usually observed for beta-sheet assemblies formed by larger peptides or proteins and this is discussed for solutions in methanol and also trifluoroethanol. The fibril structure is imaged by transmission electron microscopy and scanning electron microscopy on dried samples and is confirmed by small-angle X-ray scattering experiments in solution.

Small business lease reform - can the UK learn from the Australian experience?

This paper addresses the commercial leases policy issue of how to deal with small business tenants. The UK has adopted a voluntary solution to commercial lease reform by using Codes of Practice which is in contrast to the legislative approach adopted by Australia to attempt to solve its perceived problems with small business retail tenancies. The aim of the research was to examine the perceptions of the effectiveness of the legislation in Australia and discuss any implications for the UK policy debate. The research used a combination of literature and legislation review and a semi structured interview survey to investigate the policy aims and objectives of Australian Federal and State Governments, identify the nature and scope of the Australian legislation and examine perceptions of effectiveness of the legislation in informing small business tenants. The situation is complicated in Australia due to leases being a State rather than Federal responsibility therefore the main fieldwork was carried out in one case study State, Victoria. The paper concludes that some aspects of the Australian system can inform the UK policy debate including mandatory information provision at the commencement of negotiations and the use of lease registrars/commissioners. However, there are a number of issues that the Australian legislation does not appear to have successfully addressed including the difficulties of legislating across partial segments of the commercial property market and the collection of data for enforcement purposes.