Being and goodness

The old scholastic principle of the "convertibility" of being and goodness strikes nearly all moderns as either barely comprehensible or plain false. "Convertible" is a term of art meaning "interchangeable" in respect of predication, where the predicates can be exchanged salva veritate albeit not salva sensu: their referents are, as the maxim goes, really the same albeit conceptually different. The principle seems, at first blush, absurd. Did the scholastics literally mean that every being is good? Is that supposed to include a cancer, a malaria parasite, an earthquake that kills millions? If every being is good, then no being is bad—but how can that be? To the contemporary philosophical mind, such bafflement is understandable. It derives from the systematic dismantling of the great scholastic edifice that took place over half a millennium. With the loss of the basic concepts out of which that edifice was built, the space created by those concepts faded out of existence as well. The convertibility principle, like virtually all the other scholastic principles (not all, since some do survive and thrive in analytic philosophy), could not persist in a post-scholastic space wholly alien to it.

A Newton method for pose refinement of 3D models

Different optimization methods can be employed to optimize a numerical estimate for the match between an instantiated object model and an image. In order to take advantage of gradient-based optimization methods, perspective inversion must be used in this context. We show that convergence can be very fast by extrapolating to maximum goodness-of-fit with Newton's method. This approach is related to methods which either maximize a similar goodness-of-fit measure without use of gradient information, or else minimize distances between projected model lines and image features. Newton's method combines the accuracy of the former approach with the speed of convergence of the latter.

Prediction leaching of potassium using the convective-dispersive and the convective log-normal transfer function models

There is increasing concern about soil enrichment with K+ and subsequent potential losses following long-term application of poor quality water to agricultural land. Different models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing water flow and chemical transport in soils and groundwater. The convective-dispersive equation (CDE) and the convective log-normal transfer function (CLT) models were fitted to the potassium (K+) leaching data. The CDE and CLT models produced equivalent goodness of fit. Simulated breakthrough curves for a range of CaCl2 concentration based on parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 were characterised by an early peak position associated with higher K+ concentration as the CaCl2 concentration used in leaching experiments decreased. In another method, the parameters estimated from 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 solution were used for all other CaCl2 concentrations, and the best value of retardation factor (R) was optimised for each data set. A better prediction was found. With decreasing CaCl2 concentration the value of R is required to be more than that measured (except for 10 mmol l(-1) CaCl2), if the estimated parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 are used. The two models suffer from the fact that they need to be calibrated against a data set, and some of their parameters are not measurable and cannot be determined independently.

Efficient tree construction for the multicast problem

A new heuristic for the Steiner Minimal Tree problem is presented here. The method described is based on the detection of particular sets of nodes in networks, the “Hot Spot” sets, which are used to obtain better approximations of the optimal solutions. An algorithm is also proposed which is capable of improving the solutions obtained by classical heuristics, by means of a stirring process of the nodes in solution trees. Classical heuristics and an enumerative method are used CIS comparison terms in the experimental analysis which demonstrates the goodness of the heuristic discussed in this paper.

Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region

Evaluation of NRC, UC Davis and ADAS approaches to estimate the metabolizable energy values of feeds at maintenance energy intake from equations utilizing chemical assays and in vitro determinations

Feed samples received by commercial analytical laboratories are often undefined or mixed varieties of forages, originate from various agronomic or geographical areas of the world, are mixtures (e.g., total mixed rations) and are often described incompletely or not at all. Six unified single equation approaches to predict the metabolizable energy (ME) value of feeds determined in sheep fed at maintenance ME intake were evaluated utilizing 78 individual feeds representing 17 different forages, grains, protein meals and by-product feedstuffs. The predictive approaches evaluated were two each from National Research Council [National Research Council (NRC), Nutrient Requirements of Dairy Cattle, seventh revised ed. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 2001], University of California at Davis (UC Davis) and ADAS (Stratford, UK). Slopes and intercepts for the two ADAS approaches that utilized in vitro digestibility of organic matter and either measured gross energy (GE), or a prediction of GE from component assays, and one UC Davis approach, based upon in vitro gas production and some component assays, differed from both unity and zero, respectively, while this was not the case for the two NRC and one UC Davis approach. However, within these latter three approaches, the goodness of fit (r(2)) increased from the NRC approach utilizing lignin (0.61) to the NRC approach utilizing 48 h in vitro digestion of neutral detergent fibre (NDF:0.72) and to the UC Davis approach utilizing a 30 h in vitro digestion of NDF (0.84). The reason for the difference between the precision of the NRC procedures was the failure of assayed lignin values to accurately predict 48 h in vitro digestion of NDF. However, differences among the six predictive approaches in the number of supporting assays, and their costs, as well as that the NRC approach is actually three related equations requiring categorical description of feeds (making them unsuitable for mixed feeds) while the ADAS and UC Davis approaches are single equations, suggests that the procedure of choice will vary dependent Upon local conditions, specific objectives and the feedstuffs to be evaluated. In contrast to the evaluation of the procedures among feedstuffs, no procedure was able to consistently discriminate the ME values of individual feeds within feedstuffs determined in vivo, suggesting that the quest for an accurate and precise ME predictive approach among and within feeds, may remain to be identified. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fitting models for the joint action of two drugs using SAS(R)

Combinations of drugs are increasingly being used for a wide variety of diseases and conditions. A pre-clinical study may allow the investigation of the response at a large number of dose combinations. In determining the response to a drug combination, interest may lie in seeking evidence of synergism, in which the joint action is greater than the actions of the individual drugs, or of antagonism, in which it is less. Two well-known response surface models representing no interaction are Loewe additivity and Bliss independence, and Loewe or Bliss synergism or antagonism is defined relative to these. We illustrate an approach to fitting these models for the case in which the marginal single drug dose-response relationships are represented by four-parameter logistic curves with common upper and lower limits, and where the response variable is normally distributed with a common variance about the dose-response curve. When the dose-response curves are not parallel, the relative potency of the two drugs varies according to the magnitude of the desired effect and the models for Loewe additivity and synergism/antagonism cannot be explicitly expressed. We present an iterative approach to fitting these models without the assumption of parallel dose-response curves. A goodness-of-fit test based on residuals is also described. Implementation using the SAS NLIN procedure is illustrated using data from a pre-clinical study. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparison between feature-based and EM-based contour tracking

Most active-contour methods are based either on maximizing the image contrast under the contour or on minimizing the sum of squared distances between contour and image 'features'. The Marginalized Likelihood Ratio (MLR) contour model uses a contrast-based measure of goodness-of-fit for the contour and thus falls into the first class. The point of departure from previous models consists in marginalizing this contrast measure over unmodelled shape variations. The MLR model naturally leads to the EM Contour algorithm, in which pose optimization is carried out by iterated least-squares, as in feature-based contour methods. The difference with respect to other feature-based algorithms is that the EM Contour algorithm minimizes squared distances from Bayes least-squares (marginalized) estimates of contour locations, rather than from 'strongest features' in the neighborhood of the contour. Within the framework of the MLR model, alternatives to the EM algorithm can also be derived: one of these alternatives is the empirical-information method. Tracking experiments demonstrate the robustness of pose estimates given by the MLR model, and support the theoretical expectation that the EM Contour algorithm is more robust than either feature-based methods or the empirical-information method. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

Sociality and money

This is a translation of ‘Socialité et argent’, a text by Emmanuel Levinas originally published in 1987. Levinas describes the emergence of money out of interhuman relations of exchange and the social relations – sociality – that result. While elsewhere he has presented sociality as ‘nonindifference to alterity’ it appears here as ‘proximity of the stranger’ and points to the tension between an economic system based on money and the basic human disposition to respond to the face of the other person. Money both encodes and effaces sociality, both designates and disguises social relations. It arises from the way that needs and interests are manifested in exchange relations, in what he calls the ‘interestedness’ of economic life. But interests are always already cut through by the fact that being is always ‘being with others’. Being is always ‘interbeing’. Interestedness is always confronted by disinterestedness, that is, by a sociality marked by the ‘goodness of giving’, attachment to and concern for the poverty of the other person. Levinas concludes with a discussion of sociality and justice, posing questions about the tension between the demand to respond to an Other immediately before me and at the same time to respond to the demands of an other Other (the third person) who also invites a response.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts

Reliability analysis of probabilistic forecasts, in particular through the rank histogram or Talagrand diagram, is revisited. Two shortcomings are pointed out: Firstly, a uniform rank histogram is but a necessary condition for reliability. Secondly, if the forecast is assumed to be reliable, an indication is needed how far a histogram is expected to deviate from uniformity merely due to randomness. Concerning the first shortcoming, it is suggested that forecasts be grouped or stratified along suitable criteria, and that reliability is analyzed individually for each forecast stratum. A reliable forecast should have uniform histograms for all individual forecast strata, not only for all forecasts as a whole. As to the second shortcoming, instead of the observed frequencies, the probability of the observed frequency is plotted, providing and indication of the likelihood of the result under the hypothesis that the forecast is reliable. Furthermore, a Goodness-Of-Fit statistic is discussed which is essentially the reliability term of the Ignorance score. The discussed tools are applied to medium range forecasts for 2 m-temperature anomalies at several locations and lead times. The forecasts are stratified along the expected ranked probability score. Those forecasts which feature a high expected score turn out to be particularly unreliable.