Listening behind the Curtain: BBC broadcasting to East Germany and its Cold War echo

This article considers the BBC External Service's East German wing, which broadcast from 1949 on, focusing on the continuities in broadcast techniques between wartime anti-Nazi programming and slots such as 'Two Comrades' and 'The Bewildered Newspaper Reader', both of which replicated pre-1945 formats. The role of the Foreign Office, both as cold warrior in the 1940s and force for detente in the 1970s is included. The article also investigates the response from German listeners to the BBC's external service broadcasting in the 1950s and 1960s. The BBC paid special attention to its German listeners, and has preserved a large number of original letters at the Written Archive at Caversham, as well as conducting regular listener surveys. These considered whether Britain's democratic agenda was getting across in the late 1940s and 50s, but the author also considers to what extent German listeners were pressing for a harder stance in the Cold War or were urging caution on the great powers deciding their fate.

Does consumption-wealth ratio signal stock returns? VECM results for Germany

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption−wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two−stage method. In this paper, performance of the VECMs and the two−stage method are compared in both German and U.S. data. It is found that the VECMs are more suitable to study the effect of cay on stock returns than the two−stage method. Using the Conditional−Subset VECM, cay signals real stock returns and excess returns in both data sets significantly. The estimated coefficient on cay for stock returns turns out to be two times greater in U.S. data than in German data. When the two−stage method is used, cay has no significant effect on German stock returns. Besides, it is also found that cay signals German wealth growth and U.S. income growth significantly.