Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Effects of oxidised low density lipoprotein on dendritic cells: a possible immunoregulatory component of the atherogenic micro-environment?

Objective: The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between low density lipoprotein (LDL) and dendritic cell (DC) activation, based upon the hypothesis that reactive oxygen species (ROS)-mediated modification of proteins that may be present in local DC microenvironments could be important as mediators of this activation. Although LDL are known to be oxidised in vivo, and taken up by macrophages during atherogenesis; their effect on DC has not been explored previously. Methods: Human DCs were prepared from peripheral blood monocytes using GM-CSF and IL-4. Plasma LDLs were isolated by sequential gradient centrifugation, oxidised in CuSO4, and oxidation arrested to yield mild, moderate and highly oxidised LDL forms. DCs exposed to these LDLs were investigated using combined phenotypic, functional (autologous T cell activation), morphological and viability assays. Results: Highly-oxidised LDL increased DC HLA-DR, CD40 and CD86 expression, corroborated by increased DC-induced T cell proliferation. Both native and oxidised LDL induced prominent DC clustering. However, high concentrations of highly-oxidised LDL inhibited DC function, due to increased DC apoptosis. Conclusions: This study supports the hypothesis that oxidised LDL are capable of triggering the transition from sentinel to messenger DC. Furthermore, the DC clustering–activation–apoptosis sequence in the presence of different LDL forms is consistent with a regulatory DC role in immunopathogenesis of atheroma. A sequence of initial accumulation of DC, increasing LDL oxidation, and DC-induced T cell activation, may explain why local breach of tolerance can occur. Above a threshold level, however, supervening DC apoptosis limits this, contributing instead to the central plaque core.

Cholinergic modulation of intrinsic fibre-evoked excitatory transmission contains a nicotinic component in immature but not adult rat piriform cortex, in vitro

The piriform cortex (PC) is highly prone to epileptogenesis, particularly in immature animals, where decreased muscarinic modulation of PC intrinsic fibre excitatory neurotransmission is implicated as a likely cause. However, whether higher levels of acetylcholine (ACh) release occur in immature vs. adult PC remains unclear. We investigated this using in vitro extracellular electrophysiological recording techniques. Intrinsic fibre-evoked extracellular field potentials (EFPs) were recorded from layers II to III in PC brain slices prepared from immature (P14-18) and adult (P>40) rats. Adult and immature PC EFPs were suppressed by eserine (1muM) or neostigmine (1muM) application, with a greater suppression in immature ( approximately 40%) than adult ( approximately 30%) slices. Subsequent application of atropine (1muM) reversed EFP suppression, producing supranormal ( approximately 12%) recovery in adult slices, suggesting that suppression was solely muscarinic ACh receptor-mediated and that some 'basal' cholinergic 'tone' was present. Conversely, atropine only partially reversed anticholinesterase effects in immature slices, suggesting the presence of additional non-muscarinic modulation. Accordingly, nicotine (50muM) caused immature field suppression ( approximately 30%) that was further enhanced by neostigmine, whereas it had no effect on adult EFPs. Unlike atropine, nicotinic antagonists, mecamylamine and methyllycaconitine, induced immature supranormal field recovery ( approximately 20%) following anticholinesterase-induced suppression (with no effect on adult slices), confirming that basal cholinergic 'tone' was also present. We suggest that nicotinic inhibitory cholinergic modulation occurs in the immature rat PC intrinsic excitatory fibre system, possibly to complement the existing, weak muscarinic modulation, and could be another important developmentally regulated system governing immature PC susceptibility towards epileptogenesis.

A novel component of cannabis extract potentiates excitatory synaptic transmission in rat olfactory cortex in vitro

Cannabis is a potential treatment for epilepsy, although the few human studies supporting this use have proved inconclusive. Previously, we showed that a standardized cannabis extract (SCE), isolated Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (Delta(9)-THC), and even Delta(9)-THC-free SCE inhibited muscarinic agonist-induced epileptiform bursting in rat olfactory cortical brain slices, acting via CB1 receptors. The present work demonstrates that although Delta(9)-THC (1microM) significantly depressed evoked depolarizing postsynaptic potentials (PSPs) in rat olfactory cortex neurones, both SCE and Delta(9)-THC-free SCE significantly potentiated evoked PSPs (all results were fully reversed by the CB1 receptor antagonist SR141716A, 1microM); interestingly, the potentiation by Delta(9)-THC-free SCE was greater than that produced by SCE. On comparing the effects of Delta(9)-THC-free SCE upon evoked PSPs and artificial PSPs (aPSPs; evoked electrotonically following brief intracellular current injection), PSPs were enhanced, whereas aPSPs were unaffected, suggesting that the effect was not due to changes in background input resistance. Similar recordings made using CB1 receptor-deficient knockout mice (CB1(-/-)) and wild-type littermate controls revealed cannabinoid or extract-induced changes in membrane resistance, cell excitability and synaptic transmission in wild-type mice that were similar to those seen in rat neurones, but no effect on these properties were seen in CB1(-/-) cells. It appears that the unknown extract constituent(s) effects over-rode the suppressive effects of Delta(9)-THC on excitatory neurotransmitter release, which may explain some patients' preference for herbal cannabis rather than isolated Delta(9)-THC (due to attenuation of some of the central Delta(9)-THC side effects) and possibly account for the rare incidence of seizures in some individuals taking cannabis recreationally

Medicinal cannabis: is delta9-tetrahydrocannabinol necessary for all its effects?

Cannabis is under clinical investigation to assess its potential for medicinal use, but the question arises as to whether there is any advantage in using cannabis extracts compared with isolated Delta9-trans-tetrahydrocannabinol (Delta9THC), the major psychoactive component. We have compared the effect of a standardized cannabis extract (SCE) with pure Delta9THC, at matched concentrations of Delta9THC, and also with a Delta9THC-free extract (Delta9THC-free SCE), using two cannabinoid-sensitive models, a mouse model of multiple sclerosis (MS), and an in-vitro rat brain slice model of epilepsy. Whilst SCE inhibited spasticity in the mouse model of MS to a comparable level, it caused a more rapid onset of muscle relaxation, and a reduction in the time to maximum effect compared with Delta9THC alone. The Delta9THC-free extract or cannabidiol (CBD) caused no inhibition of spasticity. However, in the in-vitro epilepsy model, in which sustained epileptiform seizures were induced by the muscarinic receptor agonist oxotremorine-M in immature rat piriform cortical brain slices, SCE was a more potent and again more rapidly-acting anticonvulsant than isolated Delta9THC, but in this model, the Delta9THC-free extract also exhibited anticonvulsant activity. Cannabidiol did not inhibit seizures, nor did it modulate the activity of Delta9THC in this model. Therefore, as far as some actions of cannabis were concerned (e.g. antispasticity), Delta9THC was the active constituent, which might be modified by the presence of other components. However, for other effects (e.g. anticonvulsant properties) Delta9THC, although active, might not be necessary for the observed effect. Above all, these results demonstrated that not all of the therapeutic actions of cannabis herb might be due to the Delta9THC content

Effects of solar wind magnetosphere coupling recorded at different geomagnetic latitudes: Separation of directly-driven and storage/release systems

The effect on geomagnetic activity of solar wind speed, compared with that of the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, differs with geomagnetic latitude. In this study we construct a new index based on monthly standard deviations in the H-component of the geomagnetic field for all geomagnetic latitudes. We demonstrate that for this index the response at auroral regions correlates best with interplanetary coupling functions which include the solar wind speed while mid- and low-latitude regions respond to variations in the interplanetary magnetic field strength. These results are used to isolate the responsible geomagnetic current systems.

The effects of irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer and grain size on Hagberg falling number, specific weight and blackpoint of winter wheat

The effects of irrigation and nitrogen (N) fertilizer on Hagberg falling number (HFN), specific weight (SW) and blackpoint (BP) of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L) were investigated. Mains water (+50 and +100 mm month(-1), containing 44 mg NO3- litre(-1) and 28 mg SO42- litre(-1)) was applied with trickle irrigation during winter (17 January-17 March), spring (21 March-20 May) or summer (24 May-23 July). In 1999/2000 these treatments were factorially combined with three N levels (0, 200, 400 kg N ha(-1)), applied to cv Hereward. In 2000/01 the 400 kg N ha(-1) treatment was replaced with cv Malacca given 200 kg N ha(-1). Irrigation increased grain yield, mostly by increasing grain numbers when applied in winter and spring, and by increasing mean grain weight when applied in summer. Nitrogen increased grain numbers and SW, and reduced BP in both years. Nitrogen increased HFN in 1999/2000 and reduced HFN in 2000/01. Effects of irrigation on HFN, SW and BP were smaller and inconsistent over year and nitrogen level. Irrigation interacted with N on mean grain weight: negatively for winter and spring irrigation, and positively for summer irrigation. Ten variables derived from digital image analysis of harvested grain were included with mean grain weight in a principal components analysis. The first principal component ('size') was negatively related to HFN (in two years) and BP (one year), and positively related to SW (two years). Treatment effects on dimensions of harvested grain could not explain all of the effects on HFN, BP and SW but the results were consistent with the hypothesis that water and nutrient availability, even when they were affected early in the season, could influence final grain quality if they influenced grain numbers and size. (C) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry

The use of ultraviolet-blocking films in insect pest management in the UK; effects on naturally occurring arthropod pest and natural enemy populations in a protected cucumber crop

Studies in polytunnels were conducted to investigate the effects of ultraviolet (UV)-blocking films on naturally occurring insect pests and their arthropod natural enemies on a cucumber crop. Within tunnels clad with Antibotrytis (blocks light < 400 nm) and UVI/EVA (UV transmitting), 5.8 and 23.4 times more aphids, respectively, were recorded on traps compared with those on traps within tunnels clad with XL 385 (blocks light < 385 nm). When all plants within the UVI/EVA tunnels had become heavily infested with aphids, half of the plants in XL 385 tunnels were uninfested. More Coleoptera and thrips (approximately two times) were recorded under the UVI/EVA film than under the UV-blocking films, but for other arthropod pests (e. g. whitefly, leafhoppers), clear conclusions could not be drawn as low numbers were recorded. Substantial numbers of chalcid parasitoids and syrphids were found under the UV-blocking films, but further research is needed to evaluate fully the effect of such films on biological control of aphids. Higher syrphid numbers and more aphid mummies were recorded under the UVI/EVA film, probably because of the higher numbers of aphids present in tunnels clad with this film. The potential that UV-blocking films have as an effective component of commercial Integrated Pest Management (IPM) systems, for protected horticultural crops, is discussed.

Effects of UV-blocking films on the dispersal behavior of Encarsia formosa (Hymenoptera : Aphelinidae)

The parasitoid Encarsia formosa Gahan (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) has been used successfully for the control of Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood) (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae). The development of UV-blocking plastic films has added a new component to future integrated pest management systems by disrupting insect pest infestation when UV light is excluded. Because both T. vaporariorum and E. formosa are reported to have similar spectral efficiency, there was a need to identify the impact of UV-blocking films on the dispersal behavior of both the pest and the natural enemy. In field studies, using choice-chamber experiments, E. formosa showed some preference to disperse into compartments where less UV light was blocked. However, further studies indicated that the effect was primarily attributable to the different light diffusion properties of the films tested. Thus, unlike its whitefly host, when the UV-absorbing properties of the films were similar, but the light diffusion properties differed, E.formosa adults preferred to disperse into compartments clad with films that had high light diffusion properties. When the plastic films differed most in their UV-absorbing capacity and had no light-diffusion capability, the initial dispersal of E. formosa between treatments was similar, although a small preference toward the environment with UV light was observed over time. When parasitoid dispersal was measured 3 h after release, more parasitoids were found on plants, suggesting that the parasitoids would search plants for whitefly hosts, even in a UV-blocked light environment. The potential for the integration of UV-blocking films with E. formosa in an advanced whitefly management system is discussed.

Parametric accelerated failure time models with random effects and an application to kidney transplant survival

Accelerated failure time models with a shared random component are described, and are used to evaluate the effect of explanatory factors and different transplant centres on survival times following kidney transplantation. Different combinations of the distribution of the random effects and baseline hazard function are considered and the fit of such models to the transplant data is critically assessed. A mixture model that combines short- and long-term components of a hazard function is then developed, which provides a more flexible model for the hazard function. The model can incorporate different explanatory variables and random effects in each component. The model is straightforward to fit using standard statistical software, and is shown to be a good fit to the transplant data. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Trigonal pyramidal (CuN4)-N-I cores assembled by a family of tetradentate N-donor Schiff bases. Substituent effects on the Cu(II/I) potential

Copper(l) complexes of 1:3 condensates of tris(2-aminoethyl)amine and p-X-benzaldehydes (X = K Cl, NMe2 and NO2) of the type [Cu(ligand)]ClO4 are synthesised. The X-ray crystal structures of the copper(l) complexes with X = K, Cl and NMe2 are determined. In these complexes copper(l) is found to have trigonal pyramidal N-4 coordination sphere with the apical N forming a longer bond (2.191-2.202 Angstrom) than the trigonal ones (2.003-2.026 Angstrom). The Cu(II/I) potentials in these complexes span a range of 0.71-0.90 V vs SCE increasing linearly with the resonance component of the Hammett sigma for the para substituent X. It is concluded that trigonal pyramidal geometry is destabilising for copper(II).

Age-related effects of Ginkgo biloba extract on synaptic plasticity and excitability

EGb 761 is a standardized extract from the Ginkgo biloba leaf and is purported to improve age-related memory impairment. The acute and chronic effect of EGb 761 on synaptic transmission and plasticity in hippocampal slices from young adult (8-12 weeks) and aged (18-24 months) C57B1/6 mice was tested because hippocampal plasticity is believed to be a key component of memory. Acutely applied EGb 761 significantly increased neuronal excitability in slices from aged mice by reducing the population spike threshold and increased the early phase of long-term potentiation, though there was no effect in slices from young adults. In chronically treated mice fed for 30 days with an EGb 761-supplemented diet, EGb 761 significantly increased the population spike threshold and long-term potentiation in slices from aged animals, but had no effect on slices from young adults. The rapid effects of EGb 761 on plasticity indicate a direct interaction with the glutamatergic system and raise interesting implications with respect to a mechanism explaining its effect on cognitive enhancement in human subjects experiencing dementia. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of conjugated linoleic acid on human health-related outcomes

Conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) is a collective term for a mixture of positional and geometric isomers of conjugated dienoic derivatives of linoleic acid. CLA has received considerable attention as a result of animal experiments that report anti-carcinogenic, anti-atherogenic and anti-diabetic properties, and modulation of body composition and immune function. Several studies of CLA supplementation in human subjects have now been published, but in contrast to animal studies there has been marked variation between reports on the health-related outcomes. The consensus from seventeen published studies in human subjects is that CLA does not affect body weight or body composition. Some detrimental effects of the trans-10,cis-12 CLA isomer have also been reported in terms of altered blood lipid composition and impaired insulin sensitivity. Finally, CLA has only limited effects on immune functions in man. However, there have been reports of some interesting isomer-specific effects of CLA on the blood lipid profile, but not on immune function. These isomer-specific effects need further investigation. Until more is known, CLA supplementation in man should be considered with caution.

Effects of cis-9,trans-11 and trans-1 0,cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid on immune cell function in healthy humans

Background: Animal studies have suggested that conjugated linoleic acid (CLA), a natural component of ruminant meat and dairy products, may confer beneficial effects on health. However, little information on the effects of CLA on immune function is available, especially in humans. Furthermore, the effects of individual isomers of CLA have not been adequately investigated. Objective: This study investigated the effects of supplementing the diet with 3 doses of highly enriched cis-9,trans-11 CLA (0.59, 1.19, and 2.38 g/d) or trans-10,cis-12 CLA (0.63, 1.26, and 2.52 g/d) on immune outcomes in healthy humans. Design: The study had a randomized, double-blind, crossover design. Healthy men consumed 1, 2, and 4 capsules sequentially that contained 80% of either cis-9,trans-11 CLA or trans-10,cis-12 CLA for consecutive 8-wk periods. This regimen was followed by a 6-wk washout and a crossover to the other isomer. Results: Both CLA isomers decreased mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation in a dose-dependent manner. There was a significant negative correlation between mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation and the proportions of both cis-9,trans-11 CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA in peripheral blood mononuclear cell lipids. However, CLA did not affect lymphocyte subpopulations or serum concentrations of C-reactive protein and did not have any consistent effects on ex vivo cytokine production. Conclusion: CLA supplementation results in a dose-dependent reduction in the mitogen-induced activation of T lymphocytes. The effects of cis-9,trans-l I CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA were similar, and there was a negative correlation between mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation and the cis-9,trans-11 CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA contents of mononuclear cells.

In vitro effects of selected synbiotics on the human faecal microbiota composition

Synbiotics are recognized means of modulating gut microbiota composition and activities. However, whether synbiotics are superior to prebiotics and probiotics alone in moderating the gut microbiota towards a purportedly healthy composition has not been determined. Eight selected synbiotics (short-chain fructooligosaccharides or fructooligosaccharides, each combined with one of four probiotics, Lactobacillus fermentum ME-3, Lactobacillus plantarum WCFS1, Lactobacillus paracasei 8700:2 or Bifidobacterium longum 46) were added to 24-h pH-controlled anaerobic faecal batch cultures. The prebiotic and probiotic components were also tested alone to determine their respective role within the synbiotic for modulation of the faecal microbiota. Effects upon major groups of the microbiota were evaluated using FISH. Rifampicin variant probiotic strains were used to assess probiotic levels. Synbiotic and prebiotics increased bifidobacteria and the Eubacterium rectale-Clostridium coccoides group. Lower levels of Escherichia coli were retrieved with these combinations after 5 and 10 h of fermentation. Probiotics alone had little effect upon the groups, however. Multivariate analysis revealed that the effect of synbiotics differed from the prebiotics as higher levels of Lactobacillus-Enterococcus were observed when the probiotic was stimulated by the prebiotic component. Here, the synbiotic approach was more effective than prebiotic or probiotic alone to modulate the gut microbiota.