Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds

Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) changes have been suggested to affect weather and climate, and new evidence is presented here directly linking GCRs with clouds. Clouds increase the diffuse solar radiation, measured continuously at UK surface meteorological sites since 1947. The ratio of diffuse to total solar radiation-the diffuse fraction, (DF)-is used to infer cloud, and is compared with the daily mean neutron count rate measured at Climax; Colorado from 1951-2000, which provides a globally representative indicator of cosmic rays. Across the UK, oil days of high cosmic ray flux (above 3600 X 10(2) neutron counts h(-1), which occur 87% of the time on average) compared with low cosmic ray flux, (i) the chance of an overcast day increases by (19 +/- 4)%; and (ii) the diffuse fraction increases by (2 +/- 0.3)%. During sudden transient reductions in cosmic rays (e.g. Forbush events), simultaneous decreases occur in the diffuse fraction. The diffuse radiation changes are; therefore; unambiguously due to cosmic rays. Although the statistically significant nonlinear cosmic ray effect is small, it will have a considerably larger aggregate effect on longer timescale (e.g. centennial) climate variations when day-to-day variability averages out.

Galactic cosmic ray hazard in the unusual extended solar minimum between solar cycle 23 and 24

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are extremely difficult to shield against and pose one of the most severe long-term hazards for human exploration of space. The recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 shows a prolonged period of reduced solar activity and low interplanetary magnetic field strengths. As a result, the modulation of GCRs is very weak, and the fluxes of GCRs are near their highest levels in the last 25 years in the fall of 2009. Here we explore the dose rates of GCRs in the current prolonged solar minimum and make predictions for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER), which is now measuring GCRs in the lunar environment. Our results confirm the weak modulation of GCRs leading to the largest dose rates seen in the last 25 years over a prolonged period of little solar activity.

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: past and future variations

Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in- (anti-) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of 10Be concentration, which are in-phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti-phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long-term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.

Spin equilibrium and outflows in young stellar objects

We present N-body simulations of accretion discs about young stellar objects (YSOs). The simulation includes the presence of a magnetic loop structure on the central star which interacts with the particles by means of a magnetic drag force. We find that an equilibrium spin rate is achieved when the corotation radius coincides with the edge of the loop. This spin rate is consistent with observed values for TTauri stars, being an order of magnitude less than the breakup value. The material ejected from the system by the rotating loop has properties consistent with the observed molecular outflows, given the presence of a suitable containing cavity.

Quantifying the importance of galactic cosmic rays in cloud microphysical processes

Galactic Cosmic Rays are one of the major sources of ion production in the troposphere and stratosphere. Recent studies have shown that ions form electrically charged clusters which may grow to become cloud droplets. Aerosol particles charge by the attachment of ions and electrons. The collision efficiency between a particle and a water droplet increases, if the particle is electrically charged, and thus aerosol-cloud interactions can be enhanced. Because these microphysical processes may change radiative properties of cloud and impact Earth's climate it is important to evaluate these processes' quantitative effects. Five different models developed independently have been coupled to investigate this. The first model estimates cloud height from dew point temperature and the temperature profile. The second model simulates the cloud droplet growth from aerosol particles using the cloud parcel concept. In the third model, the scavenging rate of the aerosol particles is calculated using the collision efficiency between charged particles and droplets. The fourth model calculates electric field and charge distribution on water droplets and aerosols within cloud. The fifth model simulates the global electric circuit (GEC), which computes the conductivity and ionic concentration in the atmosphere in altitude range 0–45 km. The first four models are initially coupled to calculate the height of cloud, boundary condition of cloud, followed by growth of droplets, charge distribution calculation on aerosols and cloud droplets and finally scavenging. These models are incorporated with the GEC model. The simulations are verified with experimental data of charged aerosol for various altitudes. Our calculations showed an effect of aerosol charging on the CCN concentration within the cloud, due to charging of aerosols increase the scavenging of particles in the size range 0.1 µm to 1 µm.

Galactic cosmic ray modulation near the heliospheric current sheet

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) both over decadal time scales (due to long-term, global HMF variations), and over time scales of a few hours (associated with solar wind structures such as coronal mass ejections or the heliospheric current sheet, HCS). Due to the close association between the HCS, the streamer belt, and the band of slow solar wind, HCS crossings are often associated with corotating interaction regions where fast solar wind catches up and compresses slow solar wind ahead of it. However, not all HCS crossings are associated with strong compressions. In this study we categorize HCS crossings in two ways: Firstly, using the change in magnetic polarity, as either away-to-toward (AT) or toward-to-away (TA) magnetic field directions relative to the Sun and, secondly, using the strength of the associated solar wind compression, determined from the observed plasma density enhancement. For each category, we use superposed epoch analyses to show differences in both solar wind parameters and GCR flux inferred from neutron monitors. For strong-compression HCS crossings, we observe a peak in neutron counts preceding the HCS crossing, followed by a large drop after the crossing, attributable to the so-called ‘snow-plough’ effect. For weak-compression HCS crossings, where magnetic field polarity effects are more readily observable, we instead observe that the neutron counts have a tendency to peak in the away magnetic field sector. By splitting the data by the dominant polarity at each solar polar region, we find that the increase in GCR flux prior to the HCS crossing is primarily from strong compressions in cycles with negative north polar fields due to GCR drift effects. Finally, we report on unexpected differences in GCR behavior between TA weak compressions during opposing polarity cycles.

Galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere

Simon R Thomas, Mathew J Owens and Mike Lockwood discuss how neutron monitor counts can help map space weather. This won the 2014 Rishbeth Prize for the best student talk at the Hot Spring MIST Meeting in Bath, April 2014.

The labor demand was downward sloping: disentangling migrants’ inflows and outflows, 1929–1957

This paper studies in- and out-migration from the U.S. during the first half of the twentieth century and assesses how these flows affected state-level labor markets. It shows that out-migration positively impacted the earnings growth of remaining workers, while in-migration had a negative impact. Hence, immigrant arrivals were substitutes of the existing workforce, while out-migration reduced the competitive pressure on labor markets

The latitudinal effect of corotating interaction regions on galactic cosmic rays

The response of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) to an isolated enhancement of the non-axisymmetric component of the solar open magnetic field between June and November 1996 is investigated by using a combination of solar observations and numerical modelling of the interplanetary medium. The most obvious coronal hole visible from Earth at the time had little shielding effect on the flux of GCRs, as measured at Earth by neutron monitors. It is found that the evolution of the corotating interaction regions generated by a less obvious coronal hole was the principal controlling factor. Moreover, we demonstrate the imprint of the latitudinal and longitudinal evolution of that coronal hole on the variation of GCRs. The latitudinal extent of this solar minimum corotating interaction region had a determining, but local, shielding effect on GCRs, confirming previous modelling results.

Centennial changes in solar activity and the response of galactic cosmic rays

There is a growing consensus that the eleven year modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) resulting from solar activity is related to interplanetary propagating diffusive barriers (PDBs). The source of these PDBs is not well understood and numerical models describing GCR modulation simulate their effect by scaling the diffusion tensor to the interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF). The implications of a century-scale change in solar wind speed and open solar flux, for numerical modelling of GCR modulation and the reconstruction of GCR variations over the last hundred years are discussed. The dominant role of the solar non-axisymmetric magnetic field in both forcing longitudinal solar wind speed fluctuations at solar maximum and in increasing the IMF is discussed in the context of a long-term rise in the open solar magnetic flux.

Oscillations in the open solar magnetic flux with a period of 1.68 years: imprint on galactic cosmic rays and implications for heliospheric shielding

An understanding of how the heliosphere modulates galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes and spectra is important, not only for studies of their origin, acceleration and propagation in our galaxy, but also for predicting their effects (on technology and on the Earth’s environment and organisms) and for interpreting abundances of cosmogenic isotopes in meteorites and terrestrial reservoirs. In contrast to the early interplanetary measurements, there is growing evidence for a dominant role in GCR shielding of the total open magnetic flux, which emerges from the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere. In this paper, we relate a strong 1.68- year oscillation in GCR fluxes to a corresponding oscillation in the open solar magnetic flux and infer cosmic-ray propagation paths confirming the predictions of theories in which drift is important in modulating the cosmic ray flux.

The influence of anisotropic F region ion velocity distributions on ionospheric ion outflows into the magnetosphere

The contribution to the field-aligned ionospheric ion momentum equation, due to coupling between pressure anisotropy and the inhomogeneous geomagnetic field, is investigated. We term this contribution the “hydrodynamic mirror force” and investigate its dependence on the ion drift and the resulting deformations of the ion velocity distribution function from an isotropic form. It is shown that this extra upforce increases rapidly with ion drift relative to the neutral gas but is not highly dependent on the ion-neutral collision model employed. An example of a burst of flow observed by EISCAT, thought to be the ionospheric signature of a flux transfer event at the magnetopause, is studied in detail and it is shown that the nonthermal plasma which results is subject to a hydrodynamic mirror force which is roughly 10% of the gravitational downforce. In addition, predictions by the coupled University College London-Sheffield University model of the ionosphere and thermosphere show that the hydrodynamic mirror force in the auroral oval is up to 3% of the gravitational force for Kp of about 3, rising to 10% following a sudden increase in cross-cap potential. The spatial distribution of the upforce shows peaks in the cusp region and in the post-midnight auroral oval, similar to that of observed low-energy heavy ion flows from the ionosphere into the magnetosphere. We suggest the hydrodynamic mirror force may modulate these outflows by controlling the supply of heavy ions to regions of ion acceleration and that future simulations of the effects of Joule heating on ion outflows should make allowance for it.

The modelled occurrence of non-thermal plasma in the ionospheric F-region and the possible consequences for ion outflows into the magnetosphere

A global, time-dependent, three-dimensional, coupled ionosphere-thermosphere model is used to predict the spatial distribution of non-thermal plasma in the F-layer. It is shown that, even for steady-state conditions with Kp as low as 3, the difference between the ion and neutral velocities often exceeds the neutral thermal speed by a factor, D', which can be as large as 4. Theoretically, highly non-Maxwellian, and probably toroidal, ion velocity distributions are expected when D' exceeds about 1.5. The lack of response of the neutral winds to sunward ion drifts in the dawn sector of the auroral oval cause this to be the region most likely to contain toroidal distributions. The maximum in D' is found in the throat region of the convection pattern, where the strong neutral winds of the afternoon sector meet the eastward ion flows of the morning sector. These predictions are of interest, not only to radar scientists searching for non-thermal ionospheric plasma, but also as one possible explanation of the initial heating and upward flows of ions in the cleft ion fountain and nightside auroral oval, both of which are a major source of plasma for the magnetosphere.

Low-energy ion outflows from the ionosphere during a major polar cap expansion — evidence for equatorward motion of inverted-V structures

Data from the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite and the EISCAT and Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radars, have allowed a study of low-energy ion outflows from the ionosphere into the magnetosphere during a rapid expansion of the polar cap. From the combined radar data, a 200kV increase in cross-cap potential is estimated. The upflowing ions show “X” signatures in the pitch angle-time spectrograms in the expanding midnight sector of the auroral oval. These signatures reveal low-energy (below about 60eV), light-ion beams sandwiched between two regions of ion conics and are associated with inverted-V electron precipitation. The lack of mass dispersion of the poleward edge of the event, despite great differences in the times of flight, reflects the equatorward expansion of the acceleration regions at velocities similar to those of the antisunward convection. In addition, a transient burst of upflow of 0+ is observed within the cap, possibly due to enhanced Joule heating during the event.