A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Block copolymers of ethylene oxide and phenyl glycidyl ether: micellization, gelation, and drug solubilization

Three triblock copolymers of ethylene oxide and phenyl glycidyl ether, type E(m)G(n)E(m), where G = OCH2-CH(CH2OC6H5) and E = OCH2CH2, were synthesized and characterized by gel-permeation chromatography, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry, and NMR spectroscopy. Their association properties in aqueous solution were investigated by surface tensiometry and light scattering, yielding values of the critical micelle concentration (cmc), the hydrodynamic radius, and the association number. Gel boundaries in concentrated micellar solution were investigated by tube inversion, and for one copolymer, the temperature and frequency dependence of the dynamic moduli served to confirm and extend the phase diagram and to highlight gel properties. Small-angle X-ray scattering was used to investigate gel structure. The overall aim of the work was to define a block copolymer micellar system with better solubilization capacity for poorly soluble aromatic drugs than had been achieved so far by use of block copoly(oxyalkylene)s. Judged by the solubilization of griseofulvin in aqueous solutions of the E(m)G(n)E(m) copolymers, this aim was achieved.

On approximate electromagnetic cloaking by transformation media

We give a comprehensive study on regularized approximate electromagnetic cloaking in the spherical geometry via the transformation optics approach. The following aspects are investigated: (i) near-invisibility cloaking of passive media as well as active/radiating sources; (ii) the existence of cloak-busting inclusions without lossy medium lining; (iii) overcoming the cloaking-busts by employing a lossy layer outside the cloaked region; and (iv) the frequency dependence of the cloaking performances. We address these issues and connect the obtained asymptotic results to singular ideal cloaking. Numerical verifications and demonstrations are provided to show the sharpness of our analytical study.

Effect of high-hydrostatic pressure and pH on the rheological properties of gum arabic

The effect on the viscoelastic behaviour, of pressure-treating hydrated gumarabic samples (800 MPa) at different pH values (2.8, 4.2 and 8.0) was investigated, using controlled stress rheometry. The treated samples were analysed for their complex (G∗), storage (G′) and loss (G″) moduli as a function of frequency, using dynamic oscillatory testing. Significant changes in the rheologicalproperties were observed in both the pressurised gum solutions and in those previously buffered at pH 2.8. The gum, at its natural pH (4.25) and at alkaline pH (8.0), was enhanced by pressure treatment, but only for the already “good” quality gum samples. High-pressure treatment had substantial effects on the frequency-dependence of the moduli of both the pressurised and the pressurised/pH-treated solutions, with the latter being more pronounced, suggesting differing structures or changes in the overall degree of interaction of the gum systems after pressure treatment.

Structure and magnetic properties of an unprecedented syn-antiμ-nitrito-1κO:2κO′ bridged Mn(iii)-salen complex and its isoelectronic and isostructural formate analogue

The preparation, crystal structures and magnetic properties of two new isoelectronic and isomorphous formate-and nitrite-bridged 1D chains of Mn(III)-salen complexes, [Mn(salen)(HCOO)](n) (1) and [Mn(salen)(NO2)](n) (2), where salen is the dianion of N,N'-bis(salicylidene)-1,2-diaminoethane, are presented. The structures show that the salen ligand coordinates to the four equatorial sites of the metal ion and the formate or nitrite ions coordinate to the axial positions to bridge the Mn(III)-salen units through a syn-anti mu-1 kappa O:2 kappa O' coordination mode. Such a bridging mode is unprecedented in Mn(III) for formate and in any transition metal ion for nitrite. Variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements of complexes 1 and 2 indicate the presence of ferromagnetic exchange interactions with J values of 0.0607 cm(-1) (for 1) and 0.0883 cm(-1) (for 2). The ac measurements indicate negligible frequency dependence for 1 whereas compound 2 exhibits a decrease of chi(ac)' and a concomitant increase of chi(ac)'' on elevating frequency around 2 K. This finding is an indication of slow magnetization reversal characteristic of single-chain magnets or spin-glasses. The mu-nitrito-1 kappa O:2 kappa O' bridge seems to be a potentially superior magnetic coupler to the formate bridge for the construction of single-molecule/-chain magnets as its coupling constant is greater and the chi(ac)' and chi(ac)'' show frequency dependence.

On the time for fold surfaces to order during the crystallization of polyethylene from the melt and its dependence on molecular parameters

New experiments underpin the interpretation of the basic division in crystallization behaviour of polyethylene in terms of whether or not there is time for the fold surface to order before the next molecular layer is added at the growth front. For typical growth rates, in Regime 11, polyethylene lamellae form with disordered {001} fold surfaces then transform, with lamellar thickening and twisting, towards the more-ordered condition found for slower crystallization in Regime 1, in which lamellae form with and retain {201} fold surfaces. Several linear and linear-low-density polyethylenes have been used to show that, for the same polymer crystallized alone or in a blend, the growth rate at which the change in initial lamellar condition occurs is reasonably constant thereby supporting the concept of a specific time for surfaces to attain the ordered {201}) state. This specific time, in the range from milliseconds to seconds, increases with molecular length, and in linear-low-density polymer, for higher branch contents. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Galerkin boundary element method for high frequency scattering by convex polygons

In this paper we consider the problem of time-harmonic acoustic scattering in two dimensions by convex polygons. Standard boundary or finite element methods for acoustic scattering problems have a computational cost that grows at least linearly as a function of the frequency of the incident wave. Here we present a novel Galerkin boundary element method, which uses an approximation space consisting of the products of plane waves with piecewise polynomials supported on a graded mesh, with smaller elements closer to the corners of the polygon. We prove that the best approximation from the approximation space requires a number of degrees of freedom to achieve a prescribed level of accuracy that grows only logarithmically as a function of the frequency. Numerical results demonstrate the same logarithmic dependence on the frequency for the Galerkin method solution. Our boundary element method is a discretization of a well-known second kind combined-layer-potential integral equation. We provide a proof that this equation and its adjoint are well-posed and equivalent to the boundary value problem in a Sobolev space setting for general Lipschitz domains.

Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon suboxide: the vibrational dependence of the v7 bending potential function

Data on the vibrational energy levels and rotational constants of carbon suboxide for the low-wavenumber bending mode ν7 are reviewed, in the ground-state manifold, and in the ν2-, ν3-, ν4-, and ν2 + ν4-state manifolds. Following the procedure developed by Duckett, Mills, and Robiette [J. Mol. Spectrosc. 63, 249 (1976)] the data have been inverted to give the effective bending potential in ν7 for each of these five states. Values are obtained for various other parameters in the effective vibration-rotation Hamiltonian. The potential and rotational constants in ν2 + ν4 are given to a close approximation by linear extrapolation from the ground state through the ν2 and ν4 states.

Meal frequency; does it determine postprandial lipaemia?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of altering meal frequency on postprandial lipaemia and associated parameters. DESIGN: A randomized open cross over study to examine the programming effects of altering meal frequency. A standard test meal was given on three occasions following: (i) the normal diet; (ii) a period of two weeks on a nibbling and (iii) a period of two weeks on a gorging diet. SETTING: Free living subjects associated with the University of Surrey. SUBJECTS: Eleven female volunteers (age 22 +/- 0.89 y) were recruited. INTERVENTIONS: The subjects were requested to consume the same foods on either a nibbling diet (12 meals per day) or a gorging diet (three meals per day) for a period of two weeks. The standard test meal containing 80 g fat, 63 g carbohydrate and 20 g protein was administered on the day prior to the dietary intervention and on the day following each period of intervention. MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES: Fasting and postprandial blood samples were taken for the analysis of plasma triacylglycerol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, immunoreactive insulin, glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide levels (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide (GLP-1), fasting total, low density lipoprotein (LDL)- and high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol concentrations and postheparin lipoprotein lipase (LPL) activity measurements. Plasma paracetamol was measured following administration of a 1.5 g paracetamol load with the meal as an index of gastric emptying. RESULTS: The compliance to the two dietary regimes was high and there were no significant differences between the nutrient intakes on the two intervention diets. There were no significant differences in fasting or postprandial plasma concentrations of triacylglycerol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, immunoreactive insulin, GIP and GLP-1 levels, in response to the standard test meal following the nibbling or gorging dietary regimes. There were no significant differences in fasting total or LDL-cholesterol concentrations, or in the 15 min postheparin lipoprotein lipase activity measurements. There was a significant increase in HDL-cholesterol in the subjects following the gorging diet compared to the nibbling diet. DISCUSSION: The results suggest that previous meal frequency for a period of two weeks in young healthy women does not alter the fasting or postprandial lipid or hormonal response to a standard high fat meal. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study did not confirm the previous studies which suggested that nibbling is beneficial in reducing the concentrations of lipid and hormones. The rigorous control of diet content and composition in the present study compared with others, suggest reported effects of meal frequency may be due to unintentional alteration in nutrient and energy intake in previous studies.

Retrieval of mesospheric electron densities using an optimal estimation inverse method

We present a new method to determine mesospheric electron densities from partially reflected medium frequency radar pulses. The technique uses an optimal estimation inverse method and retrieves both an electron density profile and a gradient electron density profile. As well as accounting for the absorption of the two magnetoionic modes formed by ionospheric birefringence of each radar pulse, the forward model of the retrieval parameterises possible Fresnel scatter of each mode by fine electronic structure, phase changes of each mode due to Faraday rotation and the dependence of the amplitudes of the backscattered modes upon pulse width. Validation results indicate that known profiles can be retrieved and that χ2 tests upon retrieval parameters satisfy validity criteria. Application to measurements shows that retrieved electron density profiles are consistent with accepted ideas about seasonal variability of electron densities and their dependence upon nitric oxide production and transport.

The dependence of contrail formation on the weather pattern and altitude in the North Atlantic

Aircraft flying through cold ice-supersaturated air produce persistent contrails which contribute to the climate impact of aviation. Here, we demonstrate the importance of the weather situation, together with the route and altitude of the aircraft through this, on estimating contrail coverage. The results have implications for determining the climate impact of contrails as well as potential mitigation strategies. Twenty-one years of re-analysis data are used to produce a climatological assessment of conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation between 200 and 300 hPa over the north Atlantic in winter. The seasonal-mean frequency of cold ice-supersaturated regions is highest near 300 hPa, and decreases with altitude. The frequency of occurrence of ice-supersaturated regions varies with large-scale weather pattern; the most common locations are over Greenland, on the southern side of the jet stream and around the northern edge of high pressure ridges. Assuming aircraft take a great circle route, as opposed to a more realistic time-optimal route, is likely to lead to an error in the estimated contrail coverage, which can exceed 50% for westbound north Atlantic flights. The probability of contrail formation can increase or decrease with height, depending on the weather pattern, indicating that the generic suggestion that flying higher leads to fewer contrails is not robust.

Ultralow-frequency modulation of whistler-mode wave growth

Measurements from ground-based magnetometers and riometers at auroral latitudes have demonstrated that energetic (~30-300keV) electron precipitation can be modulated in the presence of magnetic field oscillations at ultra-low frequencies. It has previously been proposed that an ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave would modulate field and plasma properties near the equatorial plane, thus modifying the growth rates of whistler-mode waves. In turn, the resulting whistler-mode waves would mediate the pitch-angle scattering of electrons resulting in ionospheric precipitation. In this paper, we investigate this hypothesis by quantifying the changes to the linear growth rate expected due to a slow change in the local magnetic field strength for parameters typical of the equatorial region around 6.6RE radial distance. To constrain our study, we determine the largest possible ULF wave amplitudes from measurements of the magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit. Using nearly ten years of observations from two satellites, we demonstrate that the variation in magnetic field strength due to oscillations at 2mHz does not exceed ±10% of the background field. Modifications to the plasma density and temperature anisotropy are estimated using idealised models. For low temperature anisotropy, there is little change in the whistler-mode growth rates even for the largest ULF wave amplitude. Only for large temperature anisotropies can whistler-mode growth rates be modulated sufficiently to account for the changes in electron precipitation measured by riometers at auroral latitudes.

A high frequency $hp$ boundary element method for scattering by convex polygons

In this paper we propose and analyze a hybrid $hp$ boundary element method for the solution of problems of high frequency acoustic scattering by sound-soft convex polygons, in which the approximation space is enriched with oscillatory basis functions which efficiently capture the high frequency asymptotics of the solution. We demonstrate, both theoretically and via numerical examples, exponential convergence with respect to the order of the polynomials, moreover providing rigorous error estimates for our approximations to the solution and to the far field pattern, in which the dependence on the frequency of all constants is explicit. Importantly, these estimates prove that, to achieve any desired accuracy in the computation of these quantities, it is sufficient to increase the number of degrees of freedom in proportion to the logarithm of the frequency as the frequency increases, in contrast to the at least linear growth required by conventional methods.

Critical slip and time dependence in sea ice friction

Recent research into sea ice friction has focussed on ways to provide a model which maintains much of the clarity and simplicity of Amonton's law, yet also accounts for memory effects. One promising avenue of research has been to adapt the rate- and state- dependent models which are prevalent in rock friction. In such models it is assumed that there is some fixed critical slip displacement, which is effectively a measure of the displacement over which memory effects might be considered important. Here we show experimentally that a fixed critical slip displacement is not a valid assumption in ice friction, whereas a constant critical slip time appears to hold across a range of parameters and scales. As a simple rule of thumb, memory effects persist to a significant level for 10 s. We then discuss the implications of this finding for modelling sea ice friction and for our understanding of friction in general.