Humans and fire: changing relations in early agricultural and built environments in the Zagros, Iran, Iraq

Fire-centred studies have recently been highlighted as powerful avenues for investigation of energy flows and relations between humans, materials, environments and other species. The aim in this paper is to evaluate this potential first by reviewing the diverse theories and methods that can be applied to investigate the ecological and social significance of anthropogenic fire, and second by applying these to new and existing data sets in archaeology. This paper examines how fire-centred approaches can inform on one of the most significant step-changes in human lifeways and inter-relations with environment and other species – the transition from mobile hunting-gathering to more sedentary agriculture in a key heartland of change, the Zagros region of Iraq and Iran, c. 12,000–8,000 BP. In the review and case studies multiple links are investigated between human fire use and environment, ecology, energy use, technology, the built environment, health, social roles and relations, cultural practices and catastrophic events

Geoarchaeological investigations of midden-formation processes in the early to late Neolithic levels at Catalhoyuk, Turkey ca. 8550-8370 cal BP.

Anthropogenic midden deposits are remarkably well preserved at the Neolithic settlement of atalhöyük and provide significant archaeological information on the types and nature of activities occurring at the site. To decipher their complex stratigraphy and to investigate formation processes, a combination of geoarchaeological techniques was used. Deposits were investigated from the early ceramic to late Neolithic levels, targeting continuous sequences to examine high resolution and broader scale changes in deposition. Thin-section micromorphology combined with targeted phytolith and geochemical analyses indicates they are composed of a diverse range of ashes and other charred and siliceous plant materials, with inputs of decayed plants and organic matter, fecal waste, and sedimentary aggregates, each with diverse depositional pathways. Activities identified include in situ burning, with a range of different fuel types that may be associated with different activities. The complexity and heterogeneity of the midden deposits, and thus the necessity of employing an integrated microstratigraphic approach is demonstrated, as a prerequisite for cultural and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.