Application of the Lighthill-Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance to clear-air turbulence forecasting

A new method of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting based on the Lighthill–Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance and emission of inertia–gravity waves has been derived and applied on episodic and seasonal time scales. A scale analysis of this shallow-water theory for midlatitude synoptic-scale flows identifies advection of relative vorticity as the leading-order source term. Examination of leading- and second-order terms elucidates previous, more empirically inspired CAT forecast diagnostics. Application of the Lighthill–Ford theory to the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys CAT outbreak of 9 March 2006 results in good agreement with pilot reports of turbulence. Application of Lighthill–Ford theory to CAT forecasting for the 3 November 2005–26 March 2006 period using 1-h forecasts of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 2 1500 UTC model run leads to superior forecasts compared to the current operational version of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG1) algorithm, the most skillful operational CAT forecasting method in existence. The results suggest that major improvements in CAT forecasting could result if the methods presented herein become operational.

ARCOM construction management abstracts 1983-1998

The purpose of this document is to provide a single source of reference for every paper published in the journals directly related to research in Construction Management. It is indexed by author and keyword and contains the titles, authors, abstracts and keywords of every article from the following journals: • Building Research and Information (BRI) • Construction Management and Economics (CME) • Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (ECAM) • Journal of Construction Procurement (JCP) • RICS Research Papers (RICS) The index entries give short forms of the bibliographical citations, rather than page numbers, to enable annual updates to the abstracts. Each annual update will carry cumulative indexes, so that only one index needs to be consulted.

Construction management abstracts : cumulative abstracts and indexes of journals in construction management, 1983-2000

The purpose of this document is to provide a single source of reference for every paper published in the journals directly related to research in Construction Management. It is indexed by author and keyword and contains the titles, authors, abstracts and keywords of every article from the following journals: • Building Research and Information (BRI) • Construction Management and Economics (CME) • Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (ECAM) • Journal of Construction Procurement (JCP) • Journal of Construction Research (JCR) • Journal of Financial Management in Property and Construction (JFM) • RICS Research Papers (RICS) The index entries give short forms of the bibliographical citations, rather than page numbers, to enable annual updates to the abstracts. Each annual update will carry cumulative indexes, so that only one index needs to be consulted.

Structural design of an escort type rehabilitation robot for post-stroke therapies of upper-limb

This paper describes a structural design technique for rehabilitation robot intended for upper-limb post-stroke therapy. First, a novel approach to a rehabilitation robot is proposed and the features of the robot are explained. Second, the direct kinematics and the inverse kinematics of the proposed robot structure are derived. Finally, a mechanical design procedure is explained that achieves a compromise between the required motion range and assuring the workspace safety. The suitability of a portable escort type structure for upper limb rehabilitation of both acute and chronic stroke is discussed

Systematic property risk: quantifying UK property betas 1983-2005

The increased frequency in reporting UK property performance figures, coupled with the acceptance of the IPD database as the market standard, has enabled property to be analysed on a comparable level with other more frequently traded assets. The most widely utilised theory for pricing financial assets, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), gives market (systematic) risk, beta, centre stage. This paper seeks to measure the level of systematic risk (beta) across various property types, market conditions and investment holding periods. This paper extends the authors’ previous work on investment holding periods and how excess returns (alpha) relate to those holding periods. We draw on the uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing over 20,000 properties over the period 1983-2005. This research allows us to confirm our initial findings that properties held over longer periods perform in line with overall market performance. One implication of this is that over the long-term performance may be no different from an index tracking approach.

Holding periods and investment performance: analysing UK office returns 1983-2003

Drawing on a unique database of office properties constructed for Gerald Eve by IPD, this paper examines the holding periods of individual office properties sold between 1983 and 2003. It quantifies the holding periods of sold properties and examines the relationship between the holding period and investment performance. Across the range of holding periods, excess returns (performance relative to the market) are evenly distributed. There are as many winners as there are losers. The distribution of excess returns over different holding periods is widely spread with the risk of under-performance greater over short holding periods. Over the longer term, excess performance is confined to a narrow range and individual returns are more likely to perform in line with the market as a whole.

Keeping Hertfordshire green: the implementation of strategic environmental policy 1983-1993

This paper evaluates the implementation of environmental policy in the County of Hertfordshire during the 1980's and early 1990's. It emphasises that the recent growth of interest in environmental policy and sustainable planning initiatives should not cause researchers and practitioners to ignore the long history and experience of environmental policy implementation in local government. By looking at the experience of strategic environmental policy in Hertfordshire, the paper identifies the successes and failures of a range of implementation tools utilised by the County and district planning authorities to progress policies concerned with the conservation and improvement of urban and rural environments. It concludes that the planning authorities of Hertfordshire have stabilised the deterioration in the County's environment and have established some programmes which provide good examples of coordinated action in environmental policy implementation. These types of mechanism will need to be built upon in the new policy epoch where environmental sustainability and capacity planning take centre stage.

Social divisions in school participation and attainment in India: 1983-2004

This study documents the size and nature of “Hindu-Muslim” and “boy-girl” gaps in children’s school participation and attainments in India. Individual-level data from two successive rounds of the National Sample Survey suggest that considerable progress has been made in decreasing the Hindu-Muslim gap. Nonetheless, the gap remains sizable even after controlling for numerous socio-economic and parental covariates, and the Muslim educational disadvantage in India today is greater than that experienced by girls and Scheduled Caste Hindu children. A gender gap still appears within as well as between communities, though it is smaller within Muslim communities. While differences in gender and other demographic and socio-economic covariates have recently become more important in explaining the Hindu-Muslim gap, those differences altogether explain only 25 percent to 45 percent of the observed schooling gap.

On the connection between the 1984 Atlantic warm event and the 1982-1983 ENSO

The warm event which spread in the tropical Atlantic during Spring-Summer 1984 is assumed to be partially initiated by atmospheric disturbances, themselves related to the major 1982–1983 El-Niño which occurred 1 year earlier in the Pacific. This paper tests such an hypothesis. For that purpose, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is forced by different conditions of climatic and observed sea surface temperature and an Atlantic ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is subsequently forced by the outputs of the AGCM. It is firstly shown that both the AGCM and the OGCM correctly behave when globally observed SST are used: the strengthening of the trades over the tropical Atlantic during 1983 and their subsequent weakening at the beginning of 1984 are well captured by the AGCM, and so is the Spring 1984 deepening of the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, simulated by the OGCM. As assumed, the SST anomalies located in the El-Niño Pacific area are partly responsible for wind signal anomaly in the tropical Atlantic. Though this remotely forced atmospheric signal has a small amplitude, it can generate, in the OGCM run, an anomalous sub-surface signal leading to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Atlantic. This forced oceanic experiment cannot explain the amplitude and phase of the observed sub-surface oceanic anomaly: part of the Atlantic ocean response, due to local interaction between ocean and atmosphere, requires a coupled approach. Nevertheless this experiment showed that anomalous conditions in the Pacific during 82–83 created favorable conditions for anomaly development in the Atlantic.

Friendly amendment: a commentary on Doyle and Ford's proposed re-definition of 'mental model'

Some amendments are proposed to a recent redefinition of the mental model concept in system dynamics. First, externalised, or articulated mental models should not be called cognitive maps; this term has a well established, alternative meaning. Second, there can be mental models of entities not yet existing beyond an individual's mind; the modelling of planned or desired systems is possible and recommended. Third, saying that mental models maintain social systems connects with some exciting research opportunities for system dynamics; however, it is probably an accidental distraction from the intended meaning of the redefinition. These minor criticisms apart, the new definition of mental model of a dynamic system is welcomed as a useful contribution to both research and practice.

Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the products for decision making is improved by the routine provision of validation reports, for which the 10-day (dekadal) TAMSAT rainfall estimates are compared with independent gauge observations. This paper describes the methodology by which the TAMSAT method has been applied to generate the pan-African rainfall monitoring products. It is demonstrated through comparison with gauge measurements that the method provides skillful estimates, although with a systematic dry bias. This study illustrates TAMSAT’s value as a complementary method of estimating rainfall through examples of successful operational application.