The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

A shift to randomness of brain oscillations in people with autism

BACKGROUND: Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) enables investigation of the intrinsic functional organization of the brain. Fractal parameters such as the Hurst exponent, H, describe the complexity of endogenous low-frequency fMRI time series on a continuum from random (H = .5) to ordered (H = 1). Shifts in fractal scaling of physiological time series have been associated with neurological and cardiac conditions. METHODS: Resting-state fMRI time series were recorded in 30 male adults with an autism spectrum condition (ASC) and 33 age- and IQ-matched male volunteers. The Hurst exponent was estimated in the wavelet domain and between-group differences were investigated at global and voxel level and in regions known to be involved in autism. RESULTS: Complex fractal scaling of fMRI time series was found in both groups but globally there was a significant shift to randomness in the ASC (mean H = .758, SD = .045) compared with neurotypical volunteers (mean H = .788, SD = .047). Between-group differences in H, which was always reduced in the ASC group, were seen in most regions previously reported to be involved in autism, including cortical midline structures, medial temporal structures, lateral temporal and parietal structures, insula, amygdala, basal ganglia, thalamus, and inferior frontal gyrus. Severity of autistic symptoms was negatively correlated with H in retrosplenial and right anterior insular cortex. CONCLUSIONS: Autism is associated with a small but significant shift to randomness of endogenous brain oscillations. Complexity measures may provide physiological indicators for autism as they have done for other medical conditions.

Forced expression of the cyclin B1-CDC2 complex induces proliferation in adult rat cardiomyocytes

Repair of the mature mammalian myocardium following injury is impaired by the inability of the majority of cardiomyocytes to undergo cell division. We show that overexpression of the cyclin B1-CDC2 (cell division cycle 2 kinase) complex re-initiates cell division in adult cardiomyocytes. Thus strategies targeting the cyclin B1-CDC2 complex might re-initiate cell division in mature cardiomyocytes in vivo and facilitate myocardial regeneration following injury.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase.

Oscillations of a falling spring

The motion of a spring, initially hanging in equilibrium from a fixed point with a mass attached to it, when it is detached from the fixed point, is considered.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase